8 Red Oak Dr · Brumley, MO 65017

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Other · 81 Days on market

Built 1996 2.00 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 2 full bath mobile home situated on a beautiful 2-acre lot featuring a private pond. This property offers a quiet, rural feel with plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors. The home includes vinyl flooring throughout, a kitchen with updated cabinets and appliances, and a King wood furnace to help with heating efficiency. Step out onto the front porch and take in views of the yard and surrounding property. A large storage shed provides additional space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. This property is being sold as-is and will require some TLC, making it a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Cash or conventional financing only.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Updated cabinets
• Front porch

Tags

• PRIVATE POND
• VINYL FLOORING
• UPDATED CABINETS
• FRONT PORCH
• LARGE STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#923 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: housing D+, schools F, amenities F.
• School Of The Osage (rural): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #112 of 324 in MO (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Miller County in 2024 (31 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Miller County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $101,801 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.76%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $38,865
• Equity at exit: $72,841

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $109,629
• Equity at exit: $129,960

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65017

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,018 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $245/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $885

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $139	+0% $105	+5% $-66	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $25	-5% $65	+0% $105	+5% $145	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $136	base $105	+0.5pp $74	+1.0pp $42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $119,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $124,900 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 2 full bath mobile home situated on a beautiful 2-acre lot featuring a private pond. This property offers a quiet, rural feel with plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors. The home includes vinyl flooring throughout, a kitchen with updated cabinets and appliances, and a King wood furnace to help with heating efficiency. Step out onto the front porch and take in views of the yard and surrounding property. A large storage shed provides additional space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. This property is being sold as-is and will require some TLC, making it a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Cash or conventional financing only.

18. 2026-04-01
    listed $129,900 Active 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 2 full bath mobile home situated on a beautiful 2-acre lot featuring a private pond. This property offers a quiet, rural feel with plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors. The home includes vinyl flooring throughout, a kitchen with updated cabinets and appliances, and a King wood furnace to help with heating efficiency. Step out onto the front porch and take in views of the yard and surrounding property. A large storage shed provides additional space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. This property is being sold as-is and will require some TLC, making it a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Cash or conventional financing only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $245 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,163 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$918/yr (+$77/mo · 374.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$245
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$977
• − Management: −$977
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$189
• After-tax cash flow: $1,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: School Of The Osage
• NCES district ID: 2927630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,443
• Composite: 36.52/100
• National rank: #4644
• State rank: #112 of 324 in MO

Livability — Brumley

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #25866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,165

Population outlook (Miller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,396 people
• By 2030: 25,344 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 24,740 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 23,415 · -7.8%
• By 2075: 19,426 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 13,742 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Miller

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.3) · D 15.9% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.5pp toward R · 2008: -36.8pp · 2024: -67.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.3 2020: R+65.7 2016: R+66.0 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+36.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.66%
• Current HPI: 181.1553
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $124,900 JCMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $129,900 JCMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $245 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.