2420 Breckenridge St · Tyler, TX 75702

$147,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,983 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1976 9,583 sqft lot $74/sqft · 25% below area Est $196k · 25% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious home with nearly 2,000 square feet in an established Tyler neighborhood with strong upside potential. Features include large living spaces, wood flooring, fireplace, kitchen island, and flexible layout options. Ideal opportunity for buyers looking to customize a home or investors seeking value-add potential. Convenient access to schools, shopping, and major roads. Priced to reflect updates needed and being sold as-is.Great sweat equity opportunity,owner-occupied area

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($352/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime D+.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,225 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,131
• List price: $147,500
• Delta: -24.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1552 Crescent Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5 (+1)	2,080 (+5%)	8mo	$64,999	$31	44
1700 W Martin Luther King Jr Blvd	0.35mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,220 (+12%)	12mo	$323,900	$146	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-23,018
• Equity at exit: $21,993

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-21,614
• Equity at exit: $12,753

Cash invested: $41,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75702

• Home prices YoY: -5.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,481 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax from tax record: −$306 /mo · $3,669/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,444

Max offer price $147,500

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,875
• Closing costs: $4,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1538 N Hill Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1813	$1,650	$0.91	21d	1	0.62mi
1523 N Englewood Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,650	$1.07	43d	1	0.71mi
3115 N Grand Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,575	$1.20	43d	1	0.74mi
826 W Franklin St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,550	$1.22	13d	1	0.88mi
809 W Harmony St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,500	$1.15	43d	1	0.91mi
1618 N Tenneha Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	1.0	1587	$1,400	$0.88	13d	1	0.92mi
720 N Englewood Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	1.0	1856	$1,650	$0.89	43d	1	1.20mi
2006 W Oakwood St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,895	$1.41	13d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $147,500 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,500 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,500 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,500 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,500 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $147,500 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,500 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $147,500 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,500 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $147,500 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,500 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $147,500 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,500 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,500 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,500 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $147,500 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $147,500 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Spacious home with nearly 2,000 square feet in an established Tyler neighborhood with strong upside potential. Features include large living spaces, wood flooring, fireplace, kitchen island, and flexible layout options. Ideal opportunity for buyers looking to customize a home or investors seeking value-add potential. Convenient access to schools, shopping, and major roads. Priced to reflect updates needed and being sold as-is.Great sweat equity opportunity,owner-occupied area

18. 2026-03-26
    price $153,000 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Spacious home with nearly 2,000 square feet in an established Tyler neighborhood with strong upside potential. Features include large living spaces, wood flooring, fireplace, kitchen island, and flexible layout options. Ideal opportunity for buyers looking to customize a home or investors seeking value-add potential. Convenient access to schools, shopping, and major roads. Priced to reflect updates needed and being sold as-is.Great sweat equity opportunity,owner-occupied area

19. 2026-02-24
    listed $155,000 Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Spacious home with nearly 2,000 square feet in an established Tyler neighborhood with strong upside potential. Features include large living spaces, wood flooring, fireplace, kitchen island, and flexible layout options. Ideal opportunity for buyers looking to customize a home or investors seeking value-add potential. Convenient access to schools, shopping, and major roads. Priced to reflect updates needed and being sold as-is.Great sweat equity opportunity,owner-occupied area

20. 1999-06-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,669 · $306/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,669 · $306/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,262
• − Property taxes: −$3,669
• − Insurance: −$738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,422
• − Management: −$1,422
• − Depreciation: −$4,291
• Taxable loss: −$2,031
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$487
• After-tax cash flow: $839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tyler ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,090
• Composite: 32.69/100
• National rank: #5650
• State rank: #449 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tyler

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #4181

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tyler, TX
• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 127,842
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,927
• Household income: $51,564
• Rent vs Own: 47.1% rent · 52.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Black 37% White 12% Two or more races 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.63%
• Current HPI: 207.1573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.27%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $147,500 NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $153,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $155,000 NTREIS
• 1999-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,669 · +41.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.