WHITNEY Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$309,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,178 sqft · SingleFamily · 624 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Designed with your comfort and convenience in mind, the Whitney is anchored by an inviting open-concept living space, featuring a spacious great room-boasting access to an optional covered patio-that flows into a versatile dining area and an inviting kitchen with a center island and pantry. You'll also love the convenient main-floor primary suite, featuring an attached bath and a roomy walk-in closet. Additional main-floor highlights include a laundry room and a valet entrance off the two-bay garage. Heading upstairs, you'll find additional living and private space with a multipurpose game room, surrounded by three generous secondary bedrooms and a full hall bath. Options: Separate tub and shower to the primary suite

Key facts

• Roomy walk-in closet
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 624 days

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• OPTIONAL COVERED PATIO
• CENTER ISLAND AND PANTRY
• MAIN-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• ROOMY WALK-IN CLOSET
• MULTIPURPOSE GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $309,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $323,400.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $310k).
• Recommended offer: $273k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.9% in Brookshire — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 997 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 624 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 624 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.42%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,400
• List price: $309,990
• Delta: -4.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4023 Crowning Ct	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+4%)	2mo	$324,900	$144	84
4022 Crowning Ct	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+4%)	1mo	$324,900	$144	84
4006 Crowning Ct	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+4%)	1mo	$324,900	$144	84
32855 Laureate Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+4%)	3mo	$324,900	$144	81
3930 Windy Whisper Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+4%)	4mo	$304,900	$135	81
32814 Laureate Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-8%)	1mo	$299,900	$150	80
4007 Crowning Ct	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-8%)	3mo	$321,900	$161	77
4014 Crowning Ct	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-8%)	3mo	$307,900	$154	75
32851 Laureate Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-8%)	3mo	$309,900	$155	75
32859 Laureate Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-8%)	3mo	$299,900	$150	74
4019 Crowning Ct	0.16mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,439 (+12%)	1mo	$334,900	$137	65
4018 Crowning Ct	0.19mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,439 (+12%)	3mo	$349,900	$143	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-45,174
• Equity at exit: $48,220

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-53,725
• Equity at exit: $27,962

Cash invested: $90,552 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 997
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,156 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,696
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$404 /mo · $4,851/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$663
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,829

Max offer price $323,400

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,850
• Closing costs: $9,702
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5222 Wyatt James Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$3,250	$1.31	12d	1	0.72mi
5462 Grand View Dr Unit 1568482P Pattison, TX	5.0	3.5	2992	$3,637	$1.22	1d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,990 Active 624 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,990 Active 623 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,990 Active 622 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,990 Active 621 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,990 Active 619 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $309,990 Active 615 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,990 Active 614 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,990 Active 613 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $309,990 Active 610 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 609 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,990 Active 608 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,990 Active 607 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,990 Active 606 DOM
14. 2025-06-13
    price $309,990 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Designed with your comfort and convenience in mind, the Whitney is anchored by an inviting open-concept living space, featuring a spacious great room-boasting access to an optional covered patio-that flows into a versatile dining area and an inviting kitchen with a center island and pantry. You'll also love the convenient main-floor primary suite, featuring an attached bath and a roomy walk-in closet. Additional main-floor highlights include a laundry room and a valet entrance off the two-bay garage. Heading upstairs, you'll find additional living and private space with a multipurpose game room, surrounded by three generous secondary bedrooms and a full hall bath. Options: Separate tub and shower to the primary suite

15. 2024-10-02
    listed $319,990 Active 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Designed with your comfort and convenience in mind, the Whitney is anchored by an inviting open-concept living space, featuring a spacious great room-boasting access to an optional covered patio-that flows into a versatile dining area and an inviting kitchen with a center island and pantry. You'll also love the convenient main-floor primary suite, featuring an attached bath and a roomy walk-in closet. Additional main-floor highlights include a laundry room and a valet entrance off the two-bay garage. Heading upstairs, you'll find additional living and private space with a multipurpose game room, surrounded by three generous secondary bedrooms and a full hall bath. Options: Separate tub and shower to the primary suite

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,115
• − Property taxes: −$4,851
• − Insurance: −$1,617
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,029
• − Management: −$3,029
• − Depreciation: −$9,408
• Taxable loss: −$2,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$524
• After-tax cash flow: $3,620/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Whitney home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good layout and potential for value-adding updates to enhance its curb appeal and increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both Install new flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Upgrade the kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can improve the home's energy efficiency and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Install new flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Upgrade the kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can improve the home's energy efficiency and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2024-10-02 Listed $319,990 Zillow