418 E Church St · Adrian, MI 49221

$59,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,958 sqft · SingleFamily · 97 Days on market

Built 1920 5,663 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Four-bedroom, 2 bath home in the City of Adrian. Home has an enclosed porch and 2 car detached garage. Home was previously used as a duplex that was not certified by the city and thus, can't be used as a duplex going forward.

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Traditional single-family residence; Built in 1920
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Sidewalk

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.8% vs local median 5.7% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#342 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Adrian School District (town): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #370 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $54,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.49%
• DSCR: 3.78
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $166,430
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Comstock St	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,084 (+6%)	1mo	$179,900	$86	79
518 Frank St St	0.10mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,867 (-5%)	1mo	$155,000	$83	77
516 E Hunt St	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,927 (-2%)	5mo	$160,000	$83	74
526 Comstock St	0.42mi	4/1.5	2,057 (+5%)	10mo	$175,000	$85	61
823 E Hunt St	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,832 (-6%)	11mo	$165,000	$90	58
710 N Broad St	0.56mi	4/2.5	1,836 (-6%)	7mo	$188,000	$102	55
416 Allis St	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,816 (-7%)	4mo	$142,500	$78	54
1108 Frank St	0.46mi	4/1.0	1,748 (-11%)	7mo	$27,000	$15	50
604 Comstock St	0.45mi	4/1.5	1,676 (-14%)	6mo	$135,000	$81	48
822 Croswell St	0.65mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,865 (-5%)	10mo	$190,500	$102	45
656 James St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,709 (-13%)	6mo	$150,000	$88	43
506 S Main St	0.62mi	4/1.5	2,236 (+14%)	10mo	$180,000	$81	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $45,977
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.67×
• Total profit: $111,904
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49221

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,565/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $594

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical Active Under Contract 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Four-bedroom, 2 bath home in the City of Adrian. Home has an enclosed porch and 2 car detached garage. Home was previously used as a duplex that was not certified by the city and thus, can't be used as a duplex going forward.

2. 2026-05-14
   historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Four-bedroom, 2 bath home in the City of Adrian. Home has an enclosed porch and 2 car detached garage. Home was previously used as a duplex that was not certified by the city and thus, can't be used as a duplex going forward.

3. 2026-05-14
   historical Active - Contingent

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Four-bedroom, 2 bath home in the City of Adrian. Home has an enclosed porch and 2 car detached garage. Home was previously used as a duplex that was not certified by the city and thus, can't be used as a duplex going forward.

4. 2026-04-30
   price $59,900 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Four-bedroom, 2 bath home in the City of Adrian. Home has an enclosed porch and 2 car detached garage. Home was previously used as a duplex that was not certified by the city and thus, can't be used as a duplex going forward.

5. 2026-04-29
   price $59,900 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Four-bedroom, 2 bath home in the City of Adrian. Home has an enclosed porch and 2 car detached garage. Home was previously used as a duplex that was not certified by the city and thus, can't be used as a duplex going forward.

6. 2026-04-29
   price $59,900

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Four-bedroom, 2 bath home in the City of Adrian. Home has an enclosed porch and 2 car detached garage. Home was previously used as a duplex that was not certified by the city and thus, can't be used as a duplex going forward.

7. 2026-03-22
   price $69,900 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Four-bedroom, 2 bath home in the City of Adrian. Home has an enclosed porch and 2 car detached garage. Home was previously used as a duplex that was not certified by the city and thus, can't be used as a duplex going forward.

8. 2026-03-21
   price $69,900 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Four-bedroom, 2 bath home in the City of Adrian. Home has an enclosed porch and 2 car detached garage. Home was previously used as a duplex that was not certified by the city and thus, can't be used as a duplex going forward.

9. 2026-03-21
   price $69,900

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Four-bedroom, 2 bath home in the City of Adrian. Home has an enclosed porch and 2 car detached garage. Home was previously used as a duplex that was not certified by the city and thus, can't be used as a duplex going forward.

10. 2026-02-21
    listed $79,900 Active 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Four-bedroom, 2 bath home in the City of Adrian. Home has an enclosed porch and 2 car detached garage. Home was previously used as a duplex that was not certified by the city and thus, can't be used as a duplex going forward.

11. 2026-02-21
    listed $79,900 Active 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Four-bedroom, 2 bath home in the City of Adrian. Home has an enclosed porch and 2 car detached garage. Home was previously used as a duplex that was not certified by the city and thus, can't be used as a duplex going forward.

12. 2026-02-21
    listed $79,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Four-bedroom, 2 bath home in the City of Adrian. Home has an enclosed porch and 2 car detached garage. Home was previously used as a duplex that was not certified by the city and thus, can't be used as a duplex going forward.

13. 2026-02-21
    historical

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Four-bedroom, 2 bath home in the City of Adrian. Home has an enclosed porch and 2 car detached garage. Home was previously used as a duplex that was not certified by the city and thus, can't be used as a duplex going forward.

14. 2026-02-20
    historical
15. 2026-01-27
    listed $79,900 Active
16. 2026-01-27
    listed $79,900 Active
17. 2025-05-24
    historical
18. 2025-05-23
    historical
19. 2025-01-31
    listed $1 Active
20. 2025-01-31
    listed $1 Active
21. 2018-05-16
    soldstatus $55,000
22. 2018-05-16
    price $55,000
23. 2018-05-15
    soldstatus $55,000
24. 2018-05-15
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed
25. 2018-03-19
    historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl
26. 2018-03-05
    listed $55,000
27. 2018-03-05
    listed $57,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,565 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,565 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$1,565
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $10,172
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,441
• After-tax cash flow: $8,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Adrian School District
• NCES district ID: 2601950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,288
• Composite: 25.33/100
• National rank: #7480
• State rank: #370 of 540 in MI

Livability — Adrian

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #8722

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adrian, MI
• City population: 41,041
• Population (ZIP): 41,041

Population outlook (Lenawee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,497 people
• By 2030: 92,722 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 85,641 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 77,971 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 60,043 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 41,468 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenawee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.64%
• Current HPI: 237.3796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+8.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-14 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-14 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $59,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $69,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-21 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $79,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-01-27 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-27 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-23 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-01-31 Listed $1 REALCOMP
• 2025-01-31 Listed $1 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-16 Price Changed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-15 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-15 Sold (MLS) $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-03-19 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-03-05 Listed $57,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-03-05 Listed $55,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,565 · -12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.