25 Trail Three · Wurtsboro Hills, NY 12790

$195,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1946 7,841 sqft lot Est $151k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy a little piece of the country and all the seasons in this cozy charming cottage! Hardwood floors and a master bedroom with full bath. Nice neighborhood in a convenient location. Great starter home or a get away from city life. Close to many amenities, shops, Resorts World, water park, Holiday mountain, and D & H Canal trail. Not far from the highways for commuting. Make your appointment today.

Key facts

• Convenient location
• Close to amenities
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• CLOSE TO AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.1% in Wurtsboro Hills — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Emma C Chase School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 228 students, 57% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Monticello Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $156,671 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.82%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,018
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Elm Rd S	0.23mi	3/1.0	932 (-1%)	2mo	$240,000	$258	83
72 Trail One	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-4%)	8mo	$111,000	$123	66
74 Sunrise Trl	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	996 (+6%)	14mo	$220,000	$221	60
12 Elm St	0.66mi	3/1.0	972 (+4%)	1mo	$102,000	$105	58
43 Sycamore Trl	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-4%)	7mo	$125,000	$139	57
6 Hoeppner Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,077 (+15%)	4mo	$185,000	$172	57
7 Hazelwood Rd	0.48mi	3/1.0	868 (-8%)	9mo	$81,000	$93	54
24 Cedar Rd	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	800 (-15%)	11mo	$129,000	$161	53
60 Flicker Trl	0.71mi	3/1.0	960 (+2%)	9mo	$260,000	$271	51
17 Walnut Trl W	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-10%)	9mo	$26,000	$31	42
26 Dogwood Rd S	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	810 (-14%)	21mo	$75,000	$93	41
14 Mt Prosper Rd	0.60mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,039 (+11%)	21mo	$231,500	$223	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $92,631
• Equity at exit: $176,122

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $284,102
• Equity at exit: $379,814

Cash invested: $54,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12790

• Home prices YoY: 26.8%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,025
• Tax from tax record: −$456 /mo · $5,473/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,978

Max offer price $156,671

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-164	+0% $-220	+5% $-275	+10% $-330
Rent	-10% $-354	-5% $-287	+0% $-220	+5% $-153	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-121	-0.5pp $-170	base $-220	+0.5pp $-270	+1.0pp $-322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,875
• Closing costs: $5,865
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Lincoln Rd Wurtsboro, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	44d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2025-03-03
   soldstatus $195,700
2. 2024-12-13
   status Pending
3. 2024-10-15
   price $195,500
4. 2024-08-16
   status Active
5. 2024-07-17
   listed $229,900 Active
6. 2023-06-06
   historical
7. 2022-07-25
   historical
8. 2022-07-06
   price $189,900
9. 2021-10-25
   listed $195,000 Active
10. 2021-02-11
    historical
11. 2020-10-26
    status Active
12. 2020-10-15
    historical
13. 2020-09-05
    listed $115,000 Active
14. 2020-09-04
    historical
15. 2020-06-05
    price $115,000
16. 2020-01-13
    price $109,000
17. 2019-12-05
    listed $125,000 Active
18. 2017-02-04
    soldstatus $24,000
19. 2017-02-04
    soldstatus $24,000
20. 2016-11-16
    historical
21. 2016-09-19
    listed $24,900
22. 2016-09-19
    listed $24,900
23. 1981-09-04
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,473 · $456/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,473 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,951
• − Property taxes: −$5,473
• − Insurance: −$978
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$5,687
• Taxable loss: −$5,953
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,429
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wurtsboro Hills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wurtsboro Hills, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,341

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Slovak 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 95.79%
• Current HPI: 452.7233
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+682.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $195,700 Public Records
• 2024-12-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-15 Price Changed $195,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-16 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-17 Listed $229,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-06 Rental Removed — ONEKEY
• 2022-07-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-06 Price Changed $189,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-25 Listed $195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-26 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-05 Listed $115,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-04 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-05 Price Changed $115,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-13 Price Changed $109,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-05 Listed $125,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-04 Sold (MLS) $24,000 HGMLS
• 2017-02-04 Sold (MLS) $24,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-16 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2016-09-19 Listed $24,900 HGMLS
• 2016-09-19 Listed $24,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1981-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,473 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.