1770 N Valley Dr #19 · Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1984 Good condition $54/sqft · 25% below area Est $60k · 25% under ↓ 18% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.2

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1984

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $645 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.5% vs local median 3.0% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Four Peaks Elementary School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #898 of 1,109 statewide, top 83%, 498 students, 73% FRL); Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 772 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.47%
• DSCR: 3.73
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,000
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -25.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1770 N Valley Dr #19	0.00mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	3mo	$45,000	$54	98
1784 N Main Dr	0.44mi	2/1.0	833 (-1%)	7mo	$249,995	$300	72
1776 N San Marcos Dr	0.31mi	2/1.0	841 (+0%)	17mo	$385,000	$458	71
985 W Roundup St	0.48mi	2/2.0	896 (+7%)	15mo	$330,000	$368	50
2292 N Ironwood Dr #55	0.41mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	6mo	$57,000	$59	48
2292 N Ironwood Dr #26	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+14%)	2mo	$66,000	$69	47
2292 N Ironwood Dr #110	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+14%)	3mo	$67,000	$70	45
2292 N Ironwood Dr #56	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+14%)	6mo	$59,000	$61	43
2292 N Ironwood Dr #78	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+14%)	7mo	$60,000	$63	43
1325 N Delaware Dr	0.68mi	2/1.5	896 (+7%)	15mo	$25,000	$28	43
2292 N Ironwood Dr #3	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+14%)	14mo	$65,000	$68	40
2338 W Shiprock St	0.69mi	2/1.5	721 (-14%)	12mo	$250,000	$347	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $30,284
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $65,664
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.2 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $45,000 ($54/sqft)
• Median days on market: 139 d
• This list price: 47% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +33.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85120

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 772
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,211 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $676	-5% $661	+0% $645	+5% $630	+10% $614
Rent	-10% $550	-5% $598	+0% $645	+5% $693	+10% $741
Rate	-1.0pp $668	-0.5pp $657	base $645	+0.5pp $634	+1.0pp $622

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
853 N Main Dr Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	829	$1,800	$2.17	10d	7	0.73mi
1440 N Idaho Rd Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1015	$1,800	$1.77	0d	2	0.82mi
1440 N Idaho Rd Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1015	$1,800	$1.77	2d	3	0.82mi
1440 N Idaho Rd Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1015	$1,800	$1.77	19d	4	0.82mi
1440 N Idaho Rd Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1015	$1,800	$1.77	4d	3	0.82mi
1440 N Idaho Rd Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1010	$1,800	$1.78	34d	4	0.82mi
925 N Plaza Dr #92 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	672	$1,449	$2.16	73d	1	0.83mi
925 N Plaza Dr #22 Apache Junction, AZ	1.0	1.0	540	$1,229	$2.28	67d	1	0.86mi
1030 N Delaware Dr Unit 30 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	624	$995	$1.59	67d	1	0.92mi
2185 W Ohio St Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	99d	1	1.00mi
455 N Delaware Dr Unit 7 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	120d	1	1.09mi
800 W Apache Trl Lot 38 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	560	$1,129	$2.02	73d	1	1.13mi
135 N Palo Verde Dr Apache Junction, AZ	1.0	1.0	750	$915	$1.22	115d	1	1.15mi
135 N Palo Verde Dr Unit 8 Apache Junction, AZ	1.0	1.0	750	$925	$1.23	119d	1	1.15mi
2151 N Meridian Rd #55 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,400	$1.54	10d	1	1.18mi
695 E Superstition Blvd Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	983	$1,930	$1.96	0d	10	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association feesMonthly land lease of $510

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: City waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile homeLeasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame constructionPainted exteriorMetal roofBuilding area per owner
• Exterior features: Dirt front yardDirt back yardMountain viewsCommunity pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwaveRefrigeratorGarbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-29
   days on market $45,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-28
   days on market $45,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-27
   days on market $45,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-26
   days on market $45,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-24
   days on market $45,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-22
   days on market $45,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-16
    days on market $45,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-15
    days on market $45,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-13
    days on market $45,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-09
    days on market $45,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 65 DOM
18. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 64 DOM
19. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 63 DOM
20. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 62 DOM
21. 2026-05-23
    price $45,000
22. 2026-03-30
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,162
• − Management: −$1,162
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,794
• After-tax cash flow: $5,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,200–$12,600 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It has a good exterior and interior, and the landscaping can be improved to increase its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace cacti with more attractive landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Install new window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 15/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Four Peaks Elementary School F AZ #898/1,109 Nat'l #36,758/41,679 Middle Cactus Canyon Junior High F AZ #151/218 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High Apache Junction High School F AZ #267/381 Nat'l #15,534/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 437,574 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,191
• Household income: $57,786
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

---

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.31%
• Current HPI: 313.4666
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.50%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association feesMonthly land lease of $510

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: City waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile homeLeasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame constructionPainted exteriorMetal roofBuilding area per owner
• Exterior features: Dirt front yardDirt back yardMountain viewsCommunity pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwaveRefrigeratorGarbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $55,000 ARMLS