1553 Northville Tpke · Riverhead, NY 11901

$650,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,793 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 349 Days on market

Built 1990 1.19 ac lot $233/sqft · 36% below area Est $547k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this lovely one-family residence located in the desirable Northville area of Riverhead. This cozy home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 well-appointed bathrooms, perfect for comfortable living. The inviting interior offers plenty of natural light, with a functional layout that’s ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home is situated on a well-maintained lot, providing ample outdoor space for relaxation or gardening. Also it was renovated in 2019. With easy access to local amenities, schools, and nearby attractions, this property offers both convenience and charm. This property is selling as part of a package that includes a farm located at 1117 Cross River Drive, Riverhead NY 11901. The farm is priced separately and must be purchased in order to complete the package deal. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this house your new home! Schedule a showing today.

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Renovated in 2019
• One family residence

Tags

• ONE FAMILY RESIDENCE
• NATURAL LIGHT
• WELL MAINTAINED LOT
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• RENOVATED IN 2019
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($105k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $650k).
• Recommended offer: $572k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 4.4% in Riverhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#325 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 349 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $650k implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $572,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 349 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.86%
• DSCR: 3.57
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $547,264
• List price: $650,000
• Delta: 18.77%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1200 Cross River Dr	0.20mi	2/4.0 (-1)	2,600 (-7%)	14mo	$3,500,000	$1,346	55
1523 Northville	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,500 (-10%)	21mo	$950,000	$380	52
31 Foxglove Row	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,850 (+2%)	12mo	$885,650	$311	49
107 Foxglove Row	0.65mi	3/3.0	2,700 (-3%)	23mo	$840,000	$311	41
76 Foxglove Row	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,700 (-3%)	22mo	$865,000	$320	37
1263 Northville Tpke	0.72mi	3/3.0	3,004 (+8%)	19mo	$1,150,000	$383	34
345 Stonecrop Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,458 (-12%)	22mo	$760,000	$309	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $453,982
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $1,116,533
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $17,017 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$988 /mo · $11,855/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,574
• Net cashflow: $8,776

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,908

Max offer price $650,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,144	-5% $8,960	+0% $8,776	+5% $8,592	+10% $8,408
Rent	-10% $7,432	-5% $8,104	+0% $8,776	+5% $9,448	+10% $10,120
Rate	-1.0pp $9,103	-0.5pp $8,941	base $8,776	+0.5pp $8,608	+1.0pp $8,436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
807 Union Ave Riverhead, NY	4.0	2.5	2552	$9,000	$3.53	45d	1	1.07mi
40 Overlook DR Aquebogue, NY	4.0	4.5	3800	$30,000	$7.89	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $650,000 Active 349 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $650,000 Active 346 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $650,000 Active 345 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $650,000 Active 344 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $650,000 Active 343 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 341 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $650,000 Active 337 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $650,000 Active 336 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $650,000 Active 335 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $650,000 Active 332 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $650,000 Active 331 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $650,000 Active 330 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $650,000 Active 329 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $650,000 Active 328 DOM
15. 2025-07-09
    historical
16. 2025-07-08
    status Active
17. 2025-07-06
    listed $650,000 Active 910-char remark

    Show marketing remark (910 chars)

    Welcome to this lovely one-family residence located in the desirable Northville area of Riverhead. This cozy home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 well-appointed bathrooms, perfect for comfortable living. The inviting interior offers plenty of natural light, with a functional layout that’s ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home is situated on a well-maintained lot, providing ample outdoor space for relaxation or gardening. Also it was renovated in 2019. With easy access to local amenities, schools, and nearby attractions, this property offers both convenience and charm. This property is selling as part of a package that includes a farm located at 1117 Cross River Drive, Riverhead NY 11901. The farm is priced separately and must be purchased in order to complete the package deal. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this house your new home! Schedule a showing today.

18. 2025-06-24
    historical
19. 2025-01-29
    listed $650,000 Active
20. 2025-01-23
    historical
21. 2018-11-26
    soldstatus $255,000
22. 2018-10-25
    soldstatus $255,000 Closed
23. 2018-09-28
    status Under Contract
24. 2018-08-29
    status Price Change
25. 2018-08-29
    price $251,500
26. 2018-06-15
    status Under Contract
27. 2018-04-27
    listed $199,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,855 · $988/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,855 · $988/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $204,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$11,855
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$16,336
• − Management: −$16,336
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable income: $101,107
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24,266
• After-tax cash flow: $81,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Riverhead

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #5379

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverhead, NY
• City population: 32,921
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+226.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-08 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-06 Listed $650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-29 Listed $650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-23 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-25 Sold (MLS) $255,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-29 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-29 Price Changed $251,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-27 Listed $199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,855 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.