45415-16 28TH · Lancaster, CA 93534

$108,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 503 sqft · Land public records · 230 Days on market

Built 1983 ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath Remodel home. Step into this beautifully remodeled 4 bedroom home featuring recessed lighting throughout, new kitchen, fresh paint, new windows, an AC unit in each bedroom, private yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With a monthly space rent of just $711.09, you can own this incredible property for less than the cost of renting an apartment. Don’t miss your chance—come see it today and make it yours!

Key facts

• Office space
• Nearly new oven
• Nearly new stove

Tags

• OFFICE SPACE
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY AREA
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOKUPS
• NEARLY NEW OVEN
• NEARLY NEW STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manager approval required for park residency
• HOA & community: Land lease of $800 per month (park); Community is rural and offers hiking

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Sunny Skies park (park rules may apply)
• Utilities: Sewer or septic (unknown)
• Home design: Single-story; Mobile home remains on site; Mobile home dimensions approximately 14' x 66'; Entry on level 1
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: No pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Front entry
• Laundry & utility: Has laundry; Gas dryer hookup; Gas and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Eastside Union Elementary (suburban): math 15% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #1,226 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $747 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.66%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $7,960
• Equity at exit: $16,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $28,151
• Equity at exit: $9,338

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93534

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,540 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$135 /mo · $1,620/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $945

Max offer price $108,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $545	-5% $508	+0% $470	+5% $433	+10% $396
Rent	-10% $349	-5% $409	+0% $470	+5% $531	+10% $592
Rate	-1.0pp $525	-0.5pp $498	base $470	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $414

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45446 17th St E Lancaster, CA	1.0	1.0	425	$1,450	$3.41	5d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $108,000 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $108,000 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $108,000 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $108,000 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,000 Active 225 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,000 Active 224 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $108,000 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $108,000 Active 220 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $108,000 Active 219 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $108,000 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $108,000 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $108,000 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $108,000 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $108,000 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    soldstatus $90,000 Closed Sale 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Amazing 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath Remodel home. Step into this beautifully remodeled 4 bedroom home featuring recessed lighting throughout, new kitchen, fresh paint, new windows, an AC unit in each bedroom, private yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With a monthly space rent of just $711.09, you can own this incredible property for less than the cost of renting an apartment. Don’t miss your chance—come see it today and make it yours!

16. 2026-05-01
    status Active
17. 2026-05-01
    price $108,000
18. 2026-04-29
    historical Active Under Contract 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Amazing 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath Remodel home. Step into this beautifully remodeled 4 bedroom home featuring recessed lighting throughout, new kitchen, fresh paint, new windows, an AC unit in each bedroom, private yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With a monthly space rent of just $711.09, you can own this incredible property for less than the cost of renting an apartment. Don’t miss your chance—come see it today and make it yours!

19. 2026-04-27
    status Pending Sale
20. 2026-02-09
    price $99,500
21. 2025-10-27
    listed $110,000 Active
22. 2025-10-10
    price $100,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Amazing 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath Remodel home. Step into this beautifully remodeled 4 bedroom home featuring recessed lighting throughout, new kitchen, fresh paint, new windows, an AC unit in each bedroom, private yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With a monthly space rent of just $711.09, you can own this incredible property for less than the cost of renting an apartment. Don’t miss your chance—come see it today and make it yours!

23. 2025-09-26
    price $110,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Amazing 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath Remodel home. Step into this beautifully remodeled 4 bedroom home featuring recessed lighting throughout, new kitchen, fresh paint, new windows, an AC unit in each bedroom, private yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With a monthly space rent of just $711.09, you can own this incredible property for less than the cost of renting an apartment. Don’t miss your chance—come see it today and make it yours!

24. 2025-09-19
    listed $112,000 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Amazing 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath Remodel home. Step into this beautifully remodeled 4 bedroom home featuring recessed lighting throughout, new kitchen, fresh paint, new windows, an AC unit in each bedroom, private yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With a monthly space rent of just $711.09, you can own this incredible property for less than the cost of renting an apartment. Don’t miss your chance—come see it today and make it yours!

25. 2022-08-02
    historical
26. 2022-06-07
    listed $80,000 Active
27. 2015-06-10
    soldstatus $1,349,500
28. 2015-04-08
    historical
29. 2015-04-08
    historical
30. 2015-04-08
    historical
31. 2015-02-04
    historical
32. 2015-01-14
    historical
33. 2015-01-14
    listed $17,900
34. 2015-01-14
    historical
35. 2014-11-12
    historical
36. 2014-10-22
    listed $22,000
37. 2014-10-22
    listed $19,100
38. 2014-10-22
    listed $19,900
39. 2014-10-22
    listed $15,500
40. 2014-10-22
    listed $15,500
41. 2014-10-22
    listed $17,900
42. 1986-12-31
    soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$1,620
• − Insurance: −$540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,478
• − Management: −$1,478
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable income: $4,172
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,001
• After-tax cash flow: $4,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0611910
• Math proficiency: 15% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,840
• Composite: 21.43/100
• National rank: #13636
• State rank: #1226 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,430
• Household income: $61,866
• Rent vs Own: 62.7% rent · 37.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3232.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% Black 27% White 23% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.73%
• Current HPI: 395.3098
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.92%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Sold (MLS) $90,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $108,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $99,500 CRMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $100,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $112,000 CRMLS
• 2022-08-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-06-07 Listed $80,000 CRMLS
• 2015-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $1,349,500 Public Records
• 2015-04-08 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-04-08 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-04-08 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-02-04 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-01-14 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-01-14 Listed $17,900 AVMLS
• 2015-01-14 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2014-11-12 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2014-10-22 Listed $17,900 AVMLS
• 2014-10-22 Listed $15,500 AVMLS
• 2014-10-22 Listed $15,500 AVMLS
• 2014-10-22 Listed $19,900 AVMLS
• 2014-10-22 Listed $19,100 AVMLS
• 2014-10-22 Listed $22,000 AVMLS
• 1986-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $18,985 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.