W4945 County Road Es #126 · Sugar Creek, WI 53121

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 583 sqft · Other · 114 Days on market

Built 2017 $163/sqft · 8% above area Est $88k · 8% over $125/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated 2 bed, 1 bath Willow Run unit with addition, located on the largest, level lot in this seasonal RV community. Views of the pond with wildlife, tennis, and new pickleball courts, and no one across the street to block the view. 2017 Winnebago with full kitchen and island, dining area, and living room. Bath with a full-size shower, conveniently located near the bedroom and living area. The new addition is complete with a 2nd bedroom with a huge walk-in closet designed to be converted to an additional bath if desired. Full concrete slab under the entire unit. Willow Run offers seasonal lifestyle living with a clubhouse, pool, recreational activities, 2 ponds and a fishing pond, boat storage, and loads of fun for family and friends.

Key facts

• Views of the pond
• Huge walk-in closet
• Full kitchen

Tags

• LARGEST LEVEL LOT
• VIEWS OF THE POND
• NEW PICKLEBALL COURTS
• FULL KITCHEN
• HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Elkhorn Area School District (town): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #128 of 342 in WI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tibbets Elementary (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B+, #37 of 1,041 statewide, top 4%, 444 students, 34% FRL); Elkhorn Area Middle (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #206 of 383 statewide, top 54%, 705 students, 35% FRL); Elkhorn Area High (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #99 of 483 statewide, top 24%, 974 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 474 units permitted in Walworth County in 2024 (77 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $95k implies a 332% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.48%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,578
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 8.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-523
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $18,922
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53121

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,162/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $286	-5% $259	+0% $232	+5% $205	+10% $178
Rent	-10% $133	-5% $183	+0% $232	+5% $282	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $280	-0.5pp $256	base $232	+0.5pp $208	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 93 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 92 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    price $100,000 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Beautifully updated 2 bed, 1 bath Willow Run unit with addition, located on the largest, level lot in this seasonal RV community. Views of the pond with wildlife, tennis, and new pickleball courts, and no one across the street to block the view. 2017 Winnebago with full kitchen and island, dining area, and living room. Bath with a full-size shower, conveniently located near the bedroom and living area. The new addition is complete with a 2nd bedroom with a huge walk-in closet designed to be converted to an additional bath if desired. Full concrete slab under the entire unit. Willow Run offers seasonal lifestyle living with a clubhouse, pool, recreational activities, 2 ponds and a fishing pond, boat storage, and loads of fun for family and friends.

19. 2026-02-27
    listed $119,000 Active 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Beautifully updated 2 bed, 1 bath Willow Run unit with addition, located on the largest, level lot in this seasonal RV community. Views of the pond with wildlife, tennis, and new pickleball courts, and no one across the street to block the view. 2017 Winnebago with full kitchen and island, dining area, and living room. Bath with a full-size shower, conveniently located near the bedroom and living area. The new addition is complete with a 2nd bedroom with a huge walk-in closet designed to be converted to an additional bath if desired. Full concrete slab under the entire unit. Willow Run offers seasonal lifestyle living with a clubhouse, pool, recreational activities, 2 ponds and a fishing pond, boat storage, and loads of fun for family and friends.

20. 2018-04-23
    soldstatus $22,000
21. 2018-04-20
    soldstatus $22,000 Sold 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Spacious 3 bedroom unit with sweeping pond views. Unit features a screened porch, master bedroom, loft and a 19' x 20' addition that is awaiting your finishing touches. Conveniently located close to amenities but on a quiet street. Willow Run is a seasonal gated community that features 3 ponds (stocked for fishing), pool, volleyball, club house, play ground, golf cart friendly and bath house. Ideal vacation residence with low maintenance and taxes offered at an affordable price.

22. 2018-04-16
    status Pending 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Spacious 3 bedroom unit with sweeping pond views. Unit features a screened porch, master bedroom, loft and a 19' x 20' addition that is awaiting your finishing touches. Conveniently located close to amenities but on a quiet street. Willow Run is a seasonal gated community that features 3 ponds (stocked for fishing), pool, volleyball, club house, play ground, golf cart friendly and bath house. Ideal vacation residence with low maintenance and taxes offered at an affordable price.

23. 2017-08-01
    listed $35,000 Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Spacious 3 bedroom unit with sweeping pond views. Unit features a screened porch, master bedroom, loft and a 19' x 20' addition that is awaiting your finishing touches. Conveniently located close to amenities but on a quiet street. Willow Run is a seasonal gated community that features 3 ponds (stocked for fishing), pool, volleyball, club house, play ground, golf cart friendly and bath house. Ideal vacation residence with low maintenance and taxes offered at an affordable price.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,460 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$298/yr (+$25/mo · 25.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,162
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,205
• − Management: −$1,205
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $1,433
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$344
• After-tax cash flow: $2,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elkhorn Area School District
• NCES district ID: 5504290
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,039
• Composite: 36.7/100
• National rank: #4599
• State rank: #128 of 342 in WI

Livability — Sugar Creek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Walworth County · 37,189 people
• City population: 18,551
• Metro: Whitewater, WI
• Population (ZIP): 18,551
• Household income: $85,643
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Walworth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,803 people
• By 2030: 105,459 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 104,991 · +0.2%
• By 2050: 102,207 · -2.5%
• By 2075: 97,177 · -7.3%
• By 2100: 89,043 · -15.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Walworth

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.2) · D 38.3% · R 60.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.2 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+12.4 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.43%
• Current HPI: 239.2064
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Whitewater, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+185.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $100,000 METROMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $119,000 METROMLS
• 2018-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-20 Sold (MLS) $22,000 METROMLS
• 2018-04-16 Pending — METROMLS
• 2017-08-01 Listed $35,000 METROMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,162 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.