204 Marbury Ave · Johnstown, PA 15906

$84,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1918 4,792 sqft lot Est $77k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN CONDITION. Nice view out rear windows. Spacious older home with potential for first time homeowner or great investment property. Hardwood floors & Plaster Walls. Electric - 100 AMP Fuse Box. Parking on Street. Construction-Frame (Exterior Wood and Isul Brick). Basement & Full Walk-up Attic. * Seller - Helen Winogrodzki; Edwin Babish (POA); Theodore G. Koscienski

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Built 1918

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 15.0% in Johnstown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#363 in PA, #3,168 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greater Johnstown SD (urban): math 9% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #509 of 539 in PA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 13% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $85k implies a 399% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $84,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.96%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
148 Glenn St	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,658 (-1%)	7mo	$96,000	$58	83
218 Wilson St	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,736 (+3%)	3mo	$79,900	$46	78
219 Strayer St	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,580 (-6%)	0mo	$34,000	$22	78
130 Marbury Ave	0.15mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,622 (-4%)	7mo	$83,000	$51	74
419 Chandler Ave	0.11mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,519 (-10%)	0mo	$50,000	$33	72
232 Grape Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,584 (-6%)	8mo	$57,655	$36	71
225 Barron Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	7mo	$89,900	$54	67
204 Strayer St	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-9%)	1mo	$60,000	$39	65
201 Blaine St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,434 (-15%)	4mo	$52,000	$36	55
124 Bheam Ave	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,506 (-10%)	8mo	$42,000	$28	53
438 Samuel St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+13%)	5mo	$140,000	$74	53
203 Fairfield Ave	0.48mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,846 (+10%)	8mo	$95,000	$51	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-4,973
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $6,995
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15906

• Home prices YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,111/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $726

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
459 Stone St Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$900	$0.80	23d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-05
   remarks 268-char remark
2. 2026-06-05
   listed $84,900 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,111 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,226 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$115/yr (+$10/mo · 10.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,111
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$864
• − Management: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$75
• After-tax cash flow: $1,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greater Johnstown SD
• NCES district ID: 4210950
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,890
• Composite: 13.25/100
• National rank: #9550
• State rank: #509 of 539 in PA

Livability — Johnstown

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #3168

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 30,791
• Population (ZIP): 9,654

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 11% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Polish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.26%
• Current HPI: 77.6797
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+324.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $84,900 CSMLS
• 2026-06-03 Delisted — CSMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listed $74,900 CSMLS
• 2000-03-29 Sold (MLS) $17,000 CSMLS
• 2000-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-30 Listed $20,000 CSMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,111 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.