Chisholm Plan · Lavon, TX 75166

$320,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,709 sqft · SingleFamily · 143 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Chisholm is a thoughtfully designed 1,709-square-foot, single-story home featuring four bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. Its open-concept floor plan connects the kitchen, dining area, and spacious family room, creating a comfortable setting for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers generous countertop and cabinet space, convenient access to the pantry, and an easy flow into the main gathering areas. Tucked away at the rear of the home, the private primary suite features a spacious bedroom, dual-sink bathroom, walk-in shower, private water closet, and a generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Pantry
• Ample counter space

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• GREAT ROOM
• REAR COVERED PATIO
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• PANTRY

🏗️ New construction. The $320,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $335,104.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $321k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 931 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 59d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $259,032 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.45%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,104
• List price: $320,990
• Delta: -4.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
292 Bright Alcove Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (+4%)	3mo	$337,990	$191	84
280 Bright Alcove Ct	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,866 (+9%)	0mo	$311,990	$167	81
1021 Lovely Day Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,691 (-1%)	3mo	$336,960	$199	80
1169 Little Hills Way	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,800 (+5%)	3mo	$326,990	$182	76
291 Bright Alcove Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,889 (+10%)	3mo	$346,990	$184	71
755 Grand Dale Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,837 (+8%)	4mo	$349,990	$191	69
418 Silent Pond Park	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,699 (-1%)	3mo	$284,990	$168	68
764 Grand Dale Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,877 (+10%)	3mo	$324,990	$173	68
436 Silent Pond Park	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,649 (-4%)	3mo	$299,990	$182	65
336 Silent Pond Park	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,581 (-8%)	1mo	$289,990	$183	64
746 Gentle Bird Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (-8%)	2mo	$272,990	$174	59
1232 Little Bridge Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (-12%)	4mo	$281,990	$187	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-71,425
• Equity at exit: $49,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-84,138
• Equity at exit: $28,974

Cash invested: $93,829 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 100 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.3 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $314,940 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 89 d
• This list price: 62% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 931
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,590 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$419 /mo · $5,027/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,931

Max offer price $296,110

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-38	-5% $-154	+0% $-269	+5% $-385	+10% $-501
Rent	-10% $-474	-5% $-372	+0% $-269	+5% $-167	+10% $-65
Rate	-1.0pp $-101	-0.5pp $-184	base $-269	+0.5pp $-356	+1.0pp $-445

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,776
• Closing costs: $10,053
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
257 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,500	$1.16	89d	1	0.11mi
209 Little Bridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,400	$1.25	95d	1	0.23mi
1060 Happy Holly Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1353	$1,997	$1.48	33d	1	0.35mi
1060 Happy Holly Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$1,997	$1.39	26d	1	0.35mi
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	139d	1	0.37mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,446	$2.14	0d	21	0.88mi
621 Cherish Day Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,045	$1.45	59d	1	0.97mi
402 Coyote Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2114	$2,195	$1.04	28d	1	1.03mi
856 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,000	$1.20	20d	1	1.08mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	5d	1	1.08mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	28d	1	1.08mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,250	$1.55	34d	1	1.10mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,675	$1.83	98d	1	1.10mi
849 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,000	$1.37	50d	1	1.11mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	89d	1	1.12mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	139d	1	1.12mi
860 Moonwake Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,800	$1.39	139d	1	1.13mi
613 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,300	$1.21	139d	1	1.16mi
455 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,130	$2.11	0d	63	1.17mi
248 Braves Way Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1748	$3,000	$1.72	20d	1	1.18mi
179 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,495	$1.38	65d	1	1.21mi
609 Nature Stroll Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,995	$1.30	20d	1	1.21mi
649 Lightheart Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	0d	1	1.22mi
275 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1831	$1,889	$1.03	4d	1	1.24mi
600 Blooming Glade Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	89d	1	1.24mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	139d	1	1.25mi
358 Rockstream Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2201	$2,395	$1.09	120d	1	1.27mi
553 New Dawn Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,050	$1.34	33d	1	1.32mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	120d	1	1.39mi
242 Maverick Ct Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2250	$2,050	$0.91	65d	1	1.41mi
223 Rosewood Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,281	$1.07	68d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $320,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Chisholm plan)Located at 310 Hope Orchards Dr, Lavon, TX 75166Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,709 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Chisholm (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $320,990 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $320,990 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $320,990 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $320,990 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $320,990 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $320,990 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $320,990 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $320,990 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $320,990 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $320,990 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $320,990 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $320,990 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $320,990 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $320,990 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-08-31
    days on market $320,990 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $320,990 Active 118 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $320,990 Active 117 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $320,990 Active 116 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $320,990 Active 115 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $320,990 Active 114 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $320,990 Active 113 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $320,990 Active 112 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $320,990 Active 111 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $320,990 Active 110 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $320,990 Active 109 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $320,990 Active 108 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $320,990 Active 107 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $320,990 Active 106 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $320,990 Active 105 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $320,990 Active 104 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $320,990 Active 103 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $320,990 Active 102 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $320,990 Active 101 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $320,990 Active 100 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $320,990 Active 99 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $320,990 Active 98 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $320,990 Active 97 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $320,990 Active 95 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $320,990 Active 94 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $320,990 Active 93 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $320,990 Active 92 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on marketlisting id $320,990 Active 89 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $320,990 Active 28 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $320,990 Active 27 DOM
45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $320,990 Active 25 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $320,990 Active 23 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $320,990 Active 22 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $320,990 Active 21 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $320,990 Active 20 DOM
50. 2026-07-20
    days on market $320,990 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,771
• − Property taxes: −$5,027
• − Insurance: −$1,676
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,487
• − Management: −$2,487
• − Depreciation: −$9,748
• Taxable loss: −$9,111
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,187
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Lavon, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a smart and spacious layout perfect for modern living and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $320,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Chisholm plan)Located at 310 Hope Orchards Dr, Lavon, TX 75166Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,709 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Chisholm (new construction)