The McGinnis Plan · Apison, TN 37302

$346,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · SingleFamily · 196 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

Key facts

• Access to the yard
• Walk-in closets
• Wide entry

Tags

• WIDE ENTRY
• TRADITIONAL DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN AND FAMILY ROOM
• ACCESS TO THE YARD
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $346,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $396,883.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $347k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-434 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#106 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Apison Elementary School (math 65% / reading 61%, grade B, #47 of 952 statewide, top 5%, 652 students, 0% FRL); Sequoyah High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #273 of 332 statewide, top 84%, 226 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $292,281 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $396,883
• List price: $346,900
• Delta: -12.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1420 Centerstone Ln	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,372 (0%)	4mo	$398,400	$168	90
1408 Centerstone Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,231 (-6%)	4mo	$396,400	$178	79
1408 Centerstone Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,231 (-6%)	4mo	$396,400	$178	79
1444 Centerstone Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,565 (+8%)	2mo	$387,500	$151	79
1453 Centerstone Ln	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (-6%)	1mo	$393,400	$176	78
309 Maple Grove Ln	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,450 (+3%)	4mo	$490,000	$200	78
1411 Centerstone Ln	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (-6%)	0mo	$399,900	$179	77
1311 Centerstone Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,565 (+8%)	4mo	$424,775	$166	76
1334 Centerstone Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,565 (+8%)	5mo	$389,900	$152	75
1492 Centerstone Ln	0.08mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,565 (+8%)	1mo	$409,900	$160	74
1437 Centerstone Ln	0.14mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,565 (+8%)	1mo	$414,900	$162	72
1432 Centerstone Ln	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,066 (-13%)	2mo	$370,000	$179	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-91,893
• Equity at exit: $59,176

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-115,412
• Equity at exit: $34,315

Cash invested: $111,127 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.9 mo (26%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $414,990 ($198/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -15.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37302

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,923 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,081
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$496 /mo · $5,953/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $-434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,472

Max offer price $334,119

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-159	-5% $-297	+0% $-434	+5% $-571	+10% $-708
Rent	-10% $-665	-5% $-549	+0% $-434	+5% $-318	+10% $-203
Rate	-1.0pp $-234	-0.5pp $-333	base $-434	+0.5pp $-537	+1.0pp $-641

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,221
• Closing costs: $11,906
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1408 Centerstone Ln Apison, TN	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,875	$1.29	0d	1	0.17mi
3513 Haystack Ln Apison, TN	4.0	2.5	2282	$3,100	$1.36	0d	1	0.83mi
9842 Ramble Brook Ln Apison, TN	5.0	3.5	2581	$3,000	$1.16	0d	1	1.14mi
9807 Ramble Brook Ln Apison, TN	5.0	2.5	2581	$2,795	$1.08	0d	1	1.15mi
3729 Hawks Creek Dr Apison, TN	5.0	3.5	2618	$3,000	$1.15	109d	1	1.42mi
3753 Hawks Creek Dr Apison, TN	3.0	2.5	2164	$2,995	$1.38	109d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: Plan
• Financial info: List price $346,900
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Natural gasElectricCentral air
• Home design: New construction plan (The McGinnis)
• Construction: Construction details not providedYear built not provided
• Exterior features: Property listed as a plan homeAddress: Apison, TN

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingElectric heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living areas (plan)Plan named The McGinnis
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $346,900 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $346,900 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $346,900 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $346,900 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $346,900 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $346,900 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $346,900 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $346,900 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $346,900 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $346,900 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $346,900 Active 185 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $346,900 Active 184 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $346,900 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $346,900 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $346,900 Active 176 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $346,900 Active 173 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $346,900 Active 172 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $346,900 Active 171 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $346,900 Active 170 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $346,900 Active 169 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $346,900 Active 167 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $346,900 Active 166 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $346,900 Active 165 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $346,900 Active 164 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $346,900 Active 163 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $346,900 Active 162 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $346,900 Active 161 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $346,900 Active 160 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $346,900 Active 159 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $346,900 Active 158 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $346,900 Active 157 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $346,900 Active 156 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $346,900 Active 155 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $346,900 Active 154 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $346,900 Active 153 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $346,900 Active 152 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $346,900 Active 151 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $346,900 Active 150 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $346,900 Active 149 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $346,900 Active 148 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $346,900 Active 147 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $346,900 Active 146 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $346,900 Active 145 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $346,900 Active 142 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $346,900 Active 140 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $346,900 Active 138 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $346,900 Active 136 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $346,900 Active 135 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $346,900 Active 134 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $346,900 Active 133 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,232
• − Property taxes: −$5,953
• − Insurance: −$1,984
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,806
• − Management: −$2,806
• − Depreciation: −$11,546
• Taxable loss: −$12,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,941
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It has a good roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls/paint, and systems. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior, landscaping the front yard, and upgrading the front door to enhance curb appeal and resale/rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading the front door — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Apison Elementary School B TN #47/952 Nat'l #5,998/41,679 Middle East Hamilton Middle School C- TN #24/333 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High East Hamilton High School F TN #39/332 Nat'l #9,567/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Apison

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #10827

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apison, TN
• County: Hamilton · 393,784 people
• City population: 5,253
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 5,253
• Household income: $103,578
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 5% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.96%
• Current HPI: 294.8398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: Plan
• Financial info: List price $346,900
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Natural gasElectricCentral air
• Home design: New construction plan (The McGinnis)
• Construction: Construction details not providedYear built not provided
• Exterior features: Property listed as a plan homeAddress: Apison, TN

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingElectric heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living areas (plan)Plan named The McGinnis
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided