21 Hollow Ln · Gilford, NH 03249

$129,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 740 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1959 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

ASSOC. OWNED MARINA @WAITING LIST/100 FEET FROM BEA CH/NEEDS SOME WORK/$2234 TO BE PUT ON DEPOSIT WITH ASSOCIATION--$2005 RETURNED AT RESALE/FULL SUMMER RECREATION PROGRAM FOR ALL AGES/FULL TIME MAINT. AND ADMINISTRATOR.

Key facts

• Gilford beach rights
• Public docks
• Shed

Tags

• GILFORD BEACH RIGHTS
• CONSERVATION LAND
• PUBLIC DOCKS
• THREE-SEASON PORCH
• DECK
• SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Paved public road frontage (50' frontage); Directions: Route 11 to Kimble Road, first right is Hollow Lane. Last unit on the right.
• HOA & community: Owned land mobile park

Exterior

• Utilities: Drilled well; Septic system / leach field; Eversource electric with circuit breakers; LP/gas (Northern Propane), gas - LP/bottle; DSL internet available
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Existing construction; White/pink exterior; Metal roof
• Construction: Built in 1959; Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Beach access; Corner lot; Lake access; Abuts conservation land; Near shopping; Near skiing; Driveway (other)

Interior

• Kitchen: Exhaust hood; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air heating
• Interior features: 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gilford School District (rural): math 52% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 98 in NH (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 301 units permitted in Belknap County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Belknap County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $129k implies a 187% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.78%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $437,340
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Terrace Hill Rd	0.67mi	2/1.0 (+1)	804 (+9%)	14mo	$475,000	$591	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $100,536
• Equity at exit: $116,213

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.54×
• Total profit: $272,327
• Equity at exit: $250,619

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03249

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,732 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,961/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,131

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $548	-5% $511	+0% $475	+5% $438	+10% $402
Rent	-10% $338	-5% $407	+0% $475	+5% $543	+10% $612
Rate	-1.0pp $540	-0.5pp $508	base $475	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $129,000 Active
2. 1999-04-02
   soldstatus $45,000 220-char remark

   Show marketing remark (220 chars)

   ASSOC. OWNED MARINA @WAITING LIST/100 FEET FROM BEA CH/NEEDS SOME WORK/$2234 TO BE PUT ON DEPOSIT WITH ASSOCIATION--$2005 RETURNED AT RESALE/FULL SUMMER RECREATION PROGRAM FOR ALL AGES/FULL TIME MAINT. AND ADMINISTRATOR.

3. 1999-02-23
   listed $49,500 220-char remark

   Show marketing remark (220 chars)

   ASSOC. OWNED MARINA @WAITING LIST/100 FEET FROM BEA CH/NEEDS SOME WORK/$2234 TO BE PUT ON DEPOSIT WITH ASSOCIATION--$2005 RETURNED AT RESALE/FULL SUMMER RECREATION PROGRAM FOR ALL AGES/FULL TIME MAINT. AND ADMINISTRATOR.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,961 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,387 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$426/yr (+$35/mo · 21.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,961
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,663
• − Management: −$1,663
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $3,878
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$931
• After-tax cash flow: $4,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilford School District
• NCES district ID: 3303180
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $65,107
• Composite: 45.9/100
• National rank: #2550
• State rank: #32 of 98 in NH

Livability — Gilford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,785

Population outlook (Belknap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,702 people
• By 2030: 60,353 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 58,264 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 54,533 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 45,622 · -24.8%
• By 2100: 33,772 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Italian 5% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Belknap

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.1% · R 56.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.06%
• Current HPI: 420.4481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+160.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $129,000 PrimeMLS
• 1999-04-02 Sold (MLS) $45,000 PrimeMLS
• 1999-02-23 Listed $49,500 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,961 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.