10803 FM 1625 · Creedmoor, TX 78747

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 2014 $50/sqft · 85% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2014 16'x76' mobile home. 3 bedroom 2 bath 1200 sq ft. Home must be moved, all appliances included, lots of cabinets. Cash only, no owner financing. $65000.

Key facts

• Built 2014
• Listed 181 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $900 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.9% vs local median 4.3% in Creedmoor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,353 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.36%
• DSCR: 3.64
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $403,465
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -83.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10803 Fm 1625 Unit B	0.01mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,288 (0%)	24mo	$120,000	$93	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $41,371
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $88,880
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78747

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,745/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $900

Break-even live

Break-even rent $755

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $937	-5% $919	+0% $900	+5% $882	+10% $863
Rent	-10% $751	-5% $825	+0% $900	+5% $975	+10% $1,050
Rate	-1.0pp $933	-0.5pp $917	base $900	+0.5pp $883	+1.0pp $866

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12115 Creedmoor Municipal Dr Creedmoor, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$1,614	$1.59	3d	20	1.39mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 164 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 160 DOM
15. 2025-12-22
    listed $65,000 Active 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    2014 16'x76' mobile home. 3 bedroom 2 bath 1200 sq ft. Home must be moved, all appliances included, lots of cabinets. Cash only, no owner financing. $65000.

16. 2024-07-10
    soldstatus
17. 2021-11-15
    soldstatus
18. 2021-08-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,739
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$2,745
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $10,498
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,520
• After-tax cash flow: $8,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Creedmoor

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1353
• US rank: #23312

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Creedmoor, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,180
• Household income: $92,748
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 812.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 34% Two or more races 20% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.69%
• Current HPI: 192.9499
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-22 Listed $65,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2024-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,745 · -50.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.