4158 Rolling Oaks Dr · Jan Phyl Village, FL 33880

$124,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,403 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1985 3,681 sqft lot $163/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is your chance to enjoy peaceful senior park living in a 55+ community with a long list of must-have amenities. There are two clubhouses and two heated pools along with tennis courts, a fishing pier, miniature golf, shuffleboard and set up for horseshoe. Which ensures something for everyone. For the home, it offers a generous 1,400+ sqft layout with tall ceilings and an open concept. This furnished move in ready home includes two bedrooms and two baths, a dining room and screened in porch where you can host guests no matter the time of day. Cooking will be a pleasure in the well-equipped kitchen with breakfast bar seating, nice appliances, plenty of countertop space and a large pantry closet. This home has long list of impressive features that also includes a large master bedroom, a utility closet off the porch and an indoor laundry so you will never have to carry laundry down any stairs. All of this is set in a sought-after location and is guaranteed to delight.

Key facts

• Cathedral ceilings
• Fully furnished home
• Large pantry

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED HOME
• LARGE PANTRY
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• WALK IN CLOSET
• AIR CONDITIONER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Living area approximately 1,403 square feet; Lot approximately 0.08 acre (private maintained paved road)
• Financial info: Total annual fees $1,957.32; Property type: Residential
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee of $163.11 (includes trash and water); HOA amenities: Clubhouse, Gated community, Laundry, Pool, Shuffleboard court, Tennis courts; Community features: Buyer approval required, Deed restrictions, Golf carts allowed, Pool, Tennis courts; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; One level; Faces south
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Sliding doors; Fishing pier access (water extras)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#769 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $125k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.93%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-730
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $22,332
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,779/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,289

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $389	-5% $354	+0% $319	+5% $283	+10% $248
Rent	-10% $185	-5% $252	+0% $319	+5% $385	+10% $452
Rate	-1.0pp $381	-0.5pp $350	base $319	+0.5pp $286	+1.0pp $253

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3992 Warbler Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1632	$1,750	$1.07	15d	1	0.13mi
449 Red Hawk Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,581	$1.43	4d	1	0.67mi
3211 Timberline Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1694	$1,845	$1.09	4d	1	0.97mi
3320 Timberline Rd W Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,735	$1.32	4d	1	1.00mi
108 Brad Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,720	$1.30	24d	1	1.06mi
3062 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,323	$1.20	4d	1	1.07mi
1059 Spirit Lake Rd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,378	$1.53	24d	1	1.17mi
267 Lake Thomas Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,800	$1.74	24d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $124,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,779 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,779 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,779
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $2,067
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$496
• After-tax cash flow: $3,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jan Phyl Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #17294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+56.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-11 Sold (MLS) $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-13 Price Changed $76,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-03 Price Changed $82,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-23 Price Changed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-09 Listed $87,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-24 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,779 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.