6631 W Lazy H · Valencia West, AZ 85757

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 247 Days on market

Built 1974 8,102 sqft lot $127/sqft · 13% below area Est $225k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modern Comfort & Style—No HOA! Discover this remodeled 4-bed, 2-bath manufactured home offering 1,536 sq ft of thoughtfully updated living space. Enjoy an open floor plan with elegant wood-look flooring, in-kitchen laundry, and a bright kitchen featuring white shaker cabinets and a pantry. Relax outdoors on the covered deck overlooking the peaceful, well-established neighborhood. Complete with a huge separate garage, this home perfectly blends comfort, convenience, and value—ideal for first-time homeowners or investors seeking a move-in-ready opportunity in a no-HOA community.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Covered deck
• Open floor plan

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• IN-KITCHEN LAUNDRY
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• COVERED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.9% in Valencia West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#128 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Vesey Elementary School (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #781 of 1,109 statewide, top 71%, 562 students, 72% FRL); Valencia Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #210 of 218 statewide, top 97%, 722 students, 79% FRL); Cholla High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,760 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.02%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,000
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -13.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5376 S Brush Berry Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+9%)	8mo	$249,000	$148	45
6462 W Vinca Rose Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	1mo	$225,000	$167	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,256
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $376
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85757

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,168 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,861

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $310	+0% $243	+5% $175	+10% $108
Rent	-10% $71	-5% $157	+0% $243	+5% $328	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $341	-0.5pp $292	base $243	+0.5pp $192	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5631 S Ruby Quinn Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1842	$1,850	$1.00	25d	1	0.32mi
6274 S Iron Brand Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1524	$1,495	$0.98	45d	1	1.25mi
6428 S Buckaroo Loop Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,795	$1.24	5d	1	1.34mi
6821 W Copperwood Way Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1727	$1,975	$1.14	5d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 227 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 226 DOM
16. 2026-02-27
    price $195,000 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Modern Comfort & Style—No HOA! Discover this remodeled 4-bed, 2-bath manufactured home offering 1,536 sq ft of thoughtfully updated living space. Enjoy an open floor plan with elegant wood-look flooring, in-kitchen laundry, and a bright kitchen featuring white shaker cabinets and a pantry. Relax outdoors on the covered deck overlooking the peaceful, well-established neighborhood. Complete with a huge separate garage, this home perfectly blends comfort, convenience, and value—ideal for first-time homeowners or investors seeking a move-in-ready opportunity in a no-HOA community.

17. 2026-02-26
    price $200,000 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Modern Comfort & Style—No HOA! Discover this remodeled 4-bed, 2-bath manufactured home offering 1,536 sq ft of thoughtfully updated living space. Enjoy an open floor plan with elegant wood-look flooring, in-kitchen laundry, and a bright kitchen featuring white shaker cabinets and a pantry. Relax outdoors on the covered deck overlooking the peaceful, well-established neighborhood. Complete with a huge separate garage, this home perfectly blends comfort, convenience, and value—ideal for first-time homeowners or investors seeking a move-in-ready opportunity in a no-HOA community.

18. 2025-10-17
    listed $215,000 Active 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Modern Comfort & Style—No HOA! Discover this remodeled 4-bed, 2-bath manufactured home offering 1,536 sq ft of thoughtfully updated living space. Enjoy an open floor plan with elegant wood-look flooring, in-kitchen laundry, and a bright kitchen featuring white shaker cabinets and a pantry. Relax outdoors on the covered deck overlooking the peaceful, well-established neighborhood. Complete with a huge separate garage, this home perfectly blends comfort, convenience, and value—ideal for first-time homeowners or investors seeking a move-in-ready opportunity in a no-HOA community.

19. 2023-10-27
    soldstatus $195,000 Closed 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Every inch of this home has been carefully renovated and modernized, ensuring that you can move in without lifting a finger. The open floor plan creates a welcoming atmosphere, ideal for entertaining family and friends. Nestled in a peaceful and well-established neighborhood, this charming single-wide manufactured home offers a cozy retreat with all the modern comforts you've been searching for. With a touch of rustic charm and a wealth of recent updates, this property is ready to fulfill your dreams of homeownership. Don't miss your chance to own this meticulously updated manufactured home with a garage! Whether you're starting your homeownership journey or looking for your next investment, this property offers comfort, convenience, and modern living at an affordable price

20. 2023-10-27
    soldstatus $195,000

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Every inch of this home has been carefully renovated and modernized, ensuring that you can move in without lifting a finger. The open floor plan creates a welcoming atmosphere, ideal for entertaining family and friends. Nestled in a peaceful and well-established neighborhood, this charming single-wide manufactured home offers a cozy retreat with all the modern comforts you've been searching for. With a touch of rustic charm and a wealth of recent updates, this property is ready to fulfill your dreams of homeownership. Don't miss your chance to own this meticulously updated manufactured home with a garage! Whether you're starting your homeownership journey or looking for your next investment, this property offers comfort, convenience, and modern living at an affordable price

21. 2023-10-23
    status Pending 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Every inch of this home has been carefully renovated and modernized, ensuring that you can move in without lifting a finger. The open floor plan creates a welcoming atmosphere, ideal for entertaining family and friends. Nestled in a peaceful and well-established neighborhood, this charming single-wide manufactured home offers a cozy retreat with all the modern comforts you've been searching for. With a touch of rustic charm and a wealth of recent updates, this property is ready to fulfill your dreams of homeownership. Don't miss your chance to own this meticulously updated manufactured home with a garage! Whether you're starting your homeownership journey or looking for your next investment, this property offers comfort, convenience, and modern living at an affordable price

22. 2023-10-13
    historical Active Contingent 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Every inch of this home has been carefully renovated and modernized, ensuring that you can move in without lifting a finger. The open floor plan creates a welcoming atmosphere, ideal for entertaining family and friends. Nestled in a peaceful and well-established neighborhood, this charming single-wide manufactured home offers a cozy retreat with all the modern comforts you've been searching for. With a touch of rustic charm and a wealth of recent updates, this property is ready to fulfill your dreams of homeownership. Don't miss your chance to own this meticulously updated manufactured home with a garage! Whether you're starting your homeownership journey or looking for your next investment, this property offers comfort, convenience, and modern living at an affordable price

23. 2023-09-30
    status Active 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Every inch of this home has been carefully renovated and modernized, ensuring that you can move in without lifting a finger. The open floor plan creates a welcoming atmosphere, ideal for entertaining family and friends. Nestled in a peaceful and well-established neighborhood, this charming single-wide manufactured home offers a cozy retreat with all the modern comforts you've been searching for. With a touch of rustic charm and a wealth of recent updates, this property is ready to fulfill your dreams of homeownership. Don't miss your chance to own this meticulously updated manufactured home with a garage! Whether you're starting your homeownership journey or looking for your next investment, this property offers comfort, convenience, and modern living at an affordable price

24. 2023-09-25
    historical Active Contingent 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Every inch of this home has been carefully renovated and modernized, ensuring that you can move in without lifting a finger. The open floor plan creates a welcoming atmosphere, ideal for entertaining family and friends. Nestled in a peaceful and well-established neighborhood, this charming single-wide manufactured home offers a cozy retreat with all the modern comforts you've been searching for. With a touch of rustic charm and a wealth of recent updates, this property is ready to fulfill your dreams of homeownership. Don't miss your chance to own this meticulously updated manufactured home with a garage! Whether you're starting your homeownership journey or looking for your next investment, this property offers comfort, convenience, and modern living at an affordable price

25. 2023-09-15
    listed $200,000 Active 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Every inch of this home has been carefully renovated and modernized, ensuring that you can move in without lifting a finger. The open floor plan creates a welcoming atmosphere, ideal for entertaining family and friends. Nestled in a peaceful and well-established neighborhood, this charming single-wide manufactured home offers a cozy retreat with all the modern comforts you've been searching for. With a touch of rustic charm and a wealth of recent updates, this property is ready to fulfill your dreams of homeownership. Don't miss your chance to own this meticulously updated manufactured home with a garage! Whether you're starting your homeownership journey or looking for your next investment, this property offers comfort, convenience, and modern living at an affordable price

26. 1986-10-15
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$2,442
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$27
• After-tax cash flow: $2,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Valencia West

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #16179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valencia West, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 20,304
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,259
• Household income: $83,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 105.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 22% White 19% Native American 18% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 57%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 36% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.85%
• Current HPI: 252.3018
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.44%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+747.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $195,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $200,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-17 Listed $215,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-27 Sold (MLS) $195,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-10-23 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2023-10-13 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-09-30 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2023-09-25 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-09-15 Listed $200,000 MLSSAZ
• 1986-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $370 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.