1610 45th St · Lubbock, TX 79412

$849,000

13 bd · 13.0 ba · 7,638 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 364 Days on market

Built 1961 0.47 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 13 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

13 Unit (listings shows 8 as that's the MLS's max) updated apartment in Lubbock, TX. Close proximity to Texas Tech University. All units have been updated within the last two years with all new double paned windows, new heating and cooling systems, fresh paint, new led lighting, new low flow fixtures, and new appliances. This property has an on site laundry facility that is managed by a third party, it has a quiet courtyard and off street parking. When leasing we offer an allocated utilities option and and all bills paid option. All tenants take the all bills paid option.

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Double paned windows
• Quiet courtyard

Tags

• DOUBLE PANED WINDOWS
• HEATING AND COOLING SYSTEMS
• ON SITE LAUNDRY FACILITY
• QUIET COURTYARD
• OFF STREET PARKING
• ALLOCATED UTILITIES OPTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 13 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $849k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive. Per door: $142/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $849k).
• Recommended offer: $747k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hodges El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 255 students, 98% FRL, charter); Dunbar College Preparatory Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 430 students, 97% FRL, charter); Estacado H S (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 897 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 60% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,273/mo this rent would consume 228% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 676% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($747k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $747,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.31%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-12,070
• Equity at exit: $126,589

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $174,483
• Equity at exit: $73,406

Cash invested: $237,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79412

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 99.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,273 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,452
• Tax from tax record: −$676 /mo · $8,114/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,947
• Net cashflow: $1,844

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,939

Max offer price $849,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,324	-5% $2,084	+0% $1,844	+5% $1,603	+10% $1,363
Rent	-10% $1,111	-5% $1,477	+0% $1,844	+5% $2,210	+10% $2,576
Rate	-1.0pp $2,271	-0.5pp $2,059	base $1,844	+0.5pp $1,624	+1.0pp $1,400

13-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 13× units	1	1	$9,269
Total (13 units)			$9,273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,250
• Closing costs: $25,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $849,000 Active 364 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $849,000 Active 363 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $849,000 Active 362 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $849,000 Active 361 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $849,000 Active 358 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $849,000 Active 357 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $849,000 Active 356 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $849,000 Active 355 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $849,000 Active 354 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $849,000 Active 353 DOM
11. 2025-12-13
    price $849,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    13 Unit (listings shows 8 as that's the MLS's max) updated apartment in Lubbock, TX. Close proximity to Texas Tech University. All units have been updated within the last two years with all new double paned windows, new heating and cooling systems, fresh paint, new led lighting, new low flow fixtures, and new appliances. This property has an on site laundry facility that is managed by a third party, it has a quiet courtyard and off street parking. When leasing we offer an allocated utilities option and and all bills paid option. All tenants take the all bills paid option.

12. 2025-07-21
    price $885,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    13 Unit (listings shows 8 as that's the MLS's max) updated apartment in Lubbock, TX. Close proximity to Texas Tech University. All units have been updated within the last two years with all new double paned windows, new heating and cooling systems, fresh paint, new led lighting, new low flow fixtures, and new appliances. This property has an on site laundry facility that is managed by a third party, it has a quiet courtyard and off street parking. When leasing we offer an allocated utilities option and and all bills paid option. All tenants take the all bills paid option.

13. 2025-06-11
    listed $849,000 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    13 Unit (listings shows 8 as that's the MLS's max) updated apartment in Lubbock, TX. Close proximity to Texas Tech University. All units have been updated within the last two years with all new double paned windows, new heating and cooling systems, fresh paint, new led lighting, new low flow fixtures, and new appliances. This property has an on site laundry facility that is managed by a third party, it has a quiet courtyard and off street parking. When leasing we offer an allocated utilities option and and all bills paid option. All tenants take the all bills paid option.

14. 2024-11-01
    price $885,000
15. 2024-09-20
    price $865,000
16. 2024-07-15
    price $869,000
17. 2024-06-17
    price $874,900
18. 2024-04-10
    historical $850
19. 2024-02-06
    listed $850
20. 2024-02-05
    historical $895
21. 2024-01-24
    historical $895
22. 2024-01-24
    listed $895
23. 2023-11-14
    price $799
24. 2023-11-10
    price $845
25. 2023-10-25
    price $849
26. 2023-09-30
    listed $895
27. 2022-05-02
    soldstatus
28. 1997-07-01
    soldstatus
29. 1994-04-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,114 · $676/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,537 · $1,295/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,423/yr (+$619/mo · 91.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $111,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,557
• − Property taxes: −$8,114
• − Insurance: −$4,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,902
• − Management: −$8,902
• − Depreciation: −$24,698
• Taxable income: $8,858
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,126
• After-tax cash flow: $19,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,018
• Household income: $48,878
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 676.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 25% White 25% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.95%
• Current HPI: 188.4033
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $849,000 LARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $885,000 LARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Listed $849,000 LARMLS
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed $885,000 LARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Price Changed $865,000 LARMLS
• 2024-07-15 Price Changed $869,000 LARMLS
• 2024-06-17 Price Changed $874,900 LARMLS
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $850 APPFOLIO
• 2024-02-06 Listed for Rent $850 APPFOLIO
• 2024-02-05 Rental Removed $895 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-24 Rental Removed $895 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-24 Listed for Rent $895 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-14 Price Changed $799 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-10 Price Changed $845 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-25 Price Changed $849 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-30 Listed for Rent $895 APPFOLIO
• 2022-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,114 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.