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3850 Sarah Dr
B Composite 73.95
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +28.8/30.0
  • ARV discount +14.4/15.0
  • DSCR +10.0/10.0
  • 1% rule +7.6/10.0
  • Schools +4.3/10.0
  • Livability +4.0/5.0
  • Condition / age +2.5/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.4/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$189,900

3850 Sarah Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 346 Days on market
Built 1983 4,123 sqft lot Est $224k · 15% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new Florida oasis at Terrace Park Senior Community! This beautifully updated double wide mobile home offers over 1400 sq ft of comfortable living space, perfect for those seeking a serene and vibrant community. This home has been completely updated, ensuring a fresh and stylish living environment. Just a few updates include windows & AC Enjoy energy efficiency and comfort with updated windows and air conditioning. Luxury Vinyl Flooring adding a touch of elegance while being easy to maintain. A modern kitchen with updated cabinets and appliances, perfect for culinary artist in you, custom blinds, Fresh paint inside and out creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. Remodeled master bath, adding a touch of luxury to your daily routine. Inside laundry room for a touch of convenience at its best, The Florida room has been updated and offers a tranquil space to enjoy the surroundings, Wondering what to do with your weekend no worries take a refreshing dip in the community pool and socialize with the neighbors. Centrally located between Zephyrhills and Wesley Chapel, offering the best of both worlds with an abundance of choices whether it's shopping, dining, or entertainment, you're surrounded by options. Lots of park activities to engage in and connect with fellow residents. Embrace the quintessential Florida lifestyle in this charming community. Do not miss out on the opportunity to own a gorgeous ready to move in home in the Zephyrhills/ Wesley Chapel area!

Key facts

  • 4,123 sq ft lot
  • Parking
  • Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

  • Other: Total living area 1,456 (per public records)
  • Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
  • HOA & community: Monthly association fee: $40; Association approval required; Community pool; Senior community; Pets allowed with size limit (max 25 lbs)

Exterior

  • Parking: Carport (1 space)
  • Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
  • Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces west; Homesteaded
  • Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.09-acre lot
  • Exterior features: Sidewalk

Interior

  • Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
  • Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
  • Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
  • Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
  • Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Seven total rooms
  • Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 3.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
  • Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
  • Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 346 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 346 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.26%
Cap rate
10.33%
Cash-on-cash
14.43%
DSCR
1.64
GRM
6.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (on-the-fly)
$224,224
Comps found
7
Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
3818 Chris Dr 0.10mi 3/2.0 1,404 (-4%) 9mo $180,000 $128 82
3819 Kim Dr 0.06mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,318 (-10%) 6mo $99,900 $76 72
3538 Kiah Dr 0.18mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,404 (-4%) 15mo $225,000 $160 68
3630 Kiah Dr 0.19mi 3/2.0 1,620 (+11%) 8mo $250,000 $154 66
3741 New River Rd 0.14mi 3/2.0 1,248 (-14%) 13mo $260,000 $208 59
3841 Julie Dr 0.09mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,248 (-14%) 13mo $135,000 $108 56
3946 Ernest Dr 0.32mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,248 (-14%) 12mo $235,000 $188 46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
1.5%
Equity multiple
1.06×
Total profit
$2,944
Equity at exit
$28,315
10-year hold
IRR
8.0%
Equity multiple
1.53×
Total profit
$27,938
Equity at exit
$16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

ZIP-level market 33543

Home prices YoY
-24.0%
Rents YoY
-0.4%
Active inventory
638
Price-to-rent
6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,387 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$996
Tax from tax record
$132 /mo · $1,579/yr
Insurance
$79
HOA
$40
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$501
Net cashflow
$639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,578
Max offer price $189,900
Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$47,475
Closing costs
$5,697
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 21 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 977 $2,135 $2.19 2d 11 0.18mi
34214 Rogallo Ln Wesley Chapel, FL 3.0 2.5 1574 $2,050 $1.30 24d 1 0.61mi
34214 Cinder Way Wesley Chapel, FL 3.0 2.5 1650 $2,200 $1.33 5d 1 0.64mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.5 1251 $2,895 $2.31 12d 71 0.68mi
4410 Sailplane Ct Wesley Chapel, FL 3.0 2.5 1574 $2,100 $1.33 24d 1 0.69mi
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1022 $2,945 $2.88 3d 46 0.74mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL 3.0 2.0 1325 $1,700 $1.28 24d 1 1.11mi
34916 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL 3.0 2.0 1516 $2,100 $1.39 24d 1 1.12mi
34211 Jasper Stone Dr Wesley Chapel, FL 4.0 2.0 1852 $3,200 $1.73 24d 1 1.13mi
4013 Constantine Loop Wesley Chapel, FL 4.0 2.0 1574 $2,050 $1.30 12d 1 1.14mi
2883 Peony Prairie Ln Wesley Chapel, FL 3.0 2.5 1673 $2,099 $1.25 11d 1 1.14mi
33801 Jasmine Star Loop Wesley Chapel, FL 3.0 2.0 1516 $2,300 $1.52 24d 1 1.15mi
2839 Maiden Grass Isle Wesley Chapel, FL 3.0 2.0 1546 $2,600 $1.68 24d 1 1.15mi
34276 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL 3.0 2.5 1673 $2,500 $1.49 24d 1 1.16mi
34350 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL 3.0 2.5 1673 $2,350 $1.40 5d 1 1.21mi
4255 Ashton Meadows Way Wesley Chapel, FL 3.0 2.0 1545 $2,050 $1.33 24d 1 1.24mi
4966 Avalon Park Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL 3.0 2.5 1608 $2,350 $1.46 24d 1 1.34mi
34652 Blue Starling St Zephyrhills, FL 3.0 2.0 1352 $1,650 $1.22 5d 1 1.37mi
3060 Mountain Spruce Ter Wesley Chapel, FL 2.0 2.0 1831 $2,900 $1.58 24d 1 1.40mi
34796 Robins Song Rd Zephyrhills, FL 3.0 2.0 1575 $1,799 $1.14 20d 1 1.40mi
34873 Robins Song Rd Zephyrhills, FL 3.0 2.0 1575 $1,749 $1.11 2d 1 1.47mi

HOA detail

Monthly dues
$40 · $480/yr
Likely covers
pool

Listing history 32 events

  1. 2026-06-18
    days on market $189,900 Active 346 DOM
  2. 2026-06-17
    days on market $189,900 Active 345 DOM
  3. 2026-06-16
    days on market $189,900 Active 344 DOM
  4. 2026-06-15
    days on market $189,900 Active 343 DOM
  5. 2026-06-13
    days on market $189,900 Active 341 DOM
  6. 2026-06-09
    days on market $189,900 Active 337 DOM
  7. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 336 DOM
  8. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 335 DOM
  9. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 332 DOM
  10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 331 DOM
  11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 330 DOM
  12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 329 DOM
  13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 328 DOM
  14. 2025-12-26
    price $195,000
  15. 2025-11-03
    price $199,999
  16. 2025-10-03
    price $205,000
  17. 2025-07-07
    listed $210,000 Active
  18. 2024-01-29
    soldstatus $200,000
  19. 2024-01-22
    soldstatus $200,000 Closed 1500-char remark
    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    Welcome to your new Florida oasis at Terrace Park Senior Community! This beautifully updated double wide mobile home offers over 1400 sq ft of comfortable living space, perfect for those seeking a serene and vibrant community. This home has been completely updated, ensuring a fresh and stylish living environment. Just a few updates include windows & AC Enjoy energy efficiency and comfort with updated windows and air conditioning. Luxury Vinyl Flooring adding a touch of elegance while being easy to maintain. A modern kitchen with updated cabinets and appliances, perfect for culinary artist in you, custom blinds, Fresh paint inside and out creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. Remodeled master bath, adding a touch of luxury to your daily routine. Inside laundry room for a touch of convenience at its best, The Florida room has been updated and offers a tranquil space to enjoy the surroundings, Wondering what to do with your weekend no worries take a refreshing dip in the community pool and socialize with the neighbors. Centrally located between Zephyrhills and Wesley Chapel, offering the best of both worlds with an abundance of choices whether it's shopping, dining, or entertainment, you're surrounded by options. Lots of park activities to engage in and connect with fellow residents. Embrace the quintessential Florida lifestyle in this charming community. Do not miss out on the opportunity to own a gorgeous ready to move in home in the Zephyrhills/ Wesley Chapel area!

  20. 2023-12-21
    status Pending 1500-char remark
    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    Welcome to your new Florida oasis at Terrace Park Senior Community! This beautifully updated double wide mobile home offers over 1400 sq ft of comfortable living space, perfect for those seeking a serene and vibrant community. This home has been completely updated, ensuring a fresh and stylish living environment. Just a few updates include windows & AC Enjoy energy efficiency and comfort with updated windows and air conditioning. Luxury Vinyl Flooring adding a touch of elegance while being easy to maintain. A modern kitchen with updated cabinets and appliances, perfect for culinary artist in you, custom blinds, Fresh paint inside and out creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. Remodeled master bath, adding a touch of luxury to your daily routine. Inside laundry room for a touch of convenience at its best, The Florida room has been updated and offers a tranquil space to enjoy the surroundings, Wondering what to do with your weekend no worries take a refreshing dip in the community pool and socialize with the neighbors. Centrally located between Zephyrhills and Wesley Chapel, offering the best of both worlds with an abundance of choices whether it's shopping, dining, or entertainment, you're surrounded by options. Lots of park activities to engage in and connect with fellow residents. Embrace the quintessential Florida lifestyle in this charming community. Do not miss out on the opportunity to own a gorgeous ready to move in home in the Zephyrhills/ Wesley Chapel area!

  21. 2023-09-08
    listed $209,000 Active 1500-char remark
    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    Welcome to your new Florida oasis at Terrace Park Senior Community! This beautifully updated double wide mobile home offers over 1400 sq ft of comfortable living space, perfect for those seeking a serene and vibrant community. This home has been completely updated, ensuring a fresh and stylish living environment. Just a few updates include windows & AC Enjoy energy efficiency and comfort with updated windows and air conditioning. Luxury Vinyl Flooring adding a touch of elegance while being easy to maintain. A modern kitchen with updated cabinets and appliances, perfect for culinary artist in you, custom blinds, Fresh paint inside and out creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. Remodeled master bath, adding a touch of luxury to your daily routine. Inside laundry room for a touch of convenience at its best, The Florida room has been updated and offers a tranquil space to enjoy the surroundings, Wondering what to do with your weekend no worries take a refreshing dip in the community pool and socialize with the neighbors. Centrally located between Zephyrhills and Wesley Chapel, offering the best of both worlds with an abundance of choices whether it's shopping, dining, or entertainment, you're surrounded by options. Lots of park activities to engage in and connect with fellow residents. Embrace the quintessential Florida lifestyle in this charming community. Do not miss out on the opportunity to own a gorgeous ready to move in home in the Zephyrhills/ Wesley Chapel area!

  22. 2020-11-18
    soldstatus $75,000
  23. 2020-11-09
    soldstatus $75,000 Sold 1251-char remark
    Show marketing remark (1251 chars)

    WELCOME TO SUNNY FLORIDA! Looking for the perfect home for you to spend the winters? Or maybe looking to relocate in to a PET Friendly 55 Plus park that is full of activities. You will not want to miss out on this 2 bedroom 2 bath sq ft house located in Terrace Park. This home features a great floor plan that is light bright and open. If you are the person that likes to have guest over and entertain then this is the one for you. As you pull in to the driveway you will notice that you have Not 1 but 2 bonus rooms, A nice big Florida room off of the driveway and another bonus room just off the living area that can be used as a reading room, Family room, or Office. The bedrooms in this home both have large walk in closets, and the main bedroom features a walk in shower and full bath accessories. The laundry room is located inside the home so no need to worry about going outside to do the laundry. Also if you like to tinker or you have a hobby that you enjoy then you will want to take a look at the storage shed/ workshop just off of the Florida room. This would be a great place to call your work station. Come take a look around, take a peak at the pool, check out the activities and see what you think about calling this your next home.

  24. 2020-10-07
    status Pending 1251-char remark
    Show marketing remark (1251 chars)

    WELCOME TO SUNNY FLORIDA! Looking for the perfect home for you to spend the winters? Or maybe looking to relocate in to a PET Friendly 55 Plus park that is full of activities. You will not want to miss out on this 2 bedroom 2 bath sq ft house located in Terrace Park. This home features a great floor plan that is light bright and open. If you are the person that likes to have guest over and entertain then this is the one for you. As you pull in to the driveway you will notice that you have Not 1 but 2 bonus rooms, A nice big Florida room off of the driveway and another bonus room just off the living area that can be used as a reading room, Family room, or Office. The bedrooms in this home both have large walk in closets, and the main bedroom features a walk in shower and full bath accessories. The laundry room is located inside the home so no need to worry about going outside to do the laundry. Also if you like to tinker or you have a hobby that you enjoy then you will want to take a look at the storage shed/ workshop just off of the Florida room. This would be a great place to call your work station. Come take a look around, take a peak at the pool, check out the activities and see what you think about calling this your next home.

  25. 2020-08-14
    listed $82,500 Active 1251-char remark
    Show marketing remark (1251 chars)

    WELCOME TO SUNNY FLORIDA! Looking for the perfect home for you to spend the winters? Or maybe looking to relocate in to a PET Friendly 55 Plus park that is full of activities. You will not want to miss out on this 2 bedroom 2 bath sq ft house located in Terrace Park. This home features a great floor plan that is light bright and open. If you are the person that likes to have guest over and entertain then this is the one for you. As you pull in to the driveway you will notice that you have Not 1 but 2 bonus rooms, A nice big Florida room off of the driveway and another bonus room just off the living area that can be used as a reading room, Family room, or Office. The bedrooms in this home both have large walk in closets, and the main bedroom features a walk in shower and full bath accessories. The laundry room is located inside the home so no need to worry about going outside to do the laundry. Also if you like to tinker or you have a hobby that you enjoy then you will want to take a look at the storage shed/ workshop just off of the Florida room. This would be a great place to call your work station. Come take a look around, take a peak at the pool, check out the activities and see what you think about calling this your next home.

  26. 2013-03-26
    soldstatus $35,000
  27. 2013-03-22
    soldstatus $35,000
  28. 2010-11-10
    listed $39,900
  29. 2010-07-01
    historical
  30. 2009-03-03
    listed $60,000
  31. 2003-04-11
    soldstatus $48,000
  32. 2000-01-25
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$1,579 · $132/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$1,579 · $132/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$28,646
− Mortgage interest
−$10,637
− Property taxes
−$1,579
− Insurance
−$950
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,292
− Management
−$2,292
− HOA
−$480
− Depreciation
−$5,524
Taxable income
$4,892
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$1,174
After-tax cash flow
$6,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

District
Pasco
NCES district ID
1201530
Math proficiency
50% ▼ -10.00%
Reading proficiency
52% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income
$45,039
Composite
43.14/100
National rank
#3074
State rank
#32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

Score
79/100
State rank
#143
US rank
#2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Wesley Chapel, FL
County
Pasco County · 524,098 people
City population
100,771
Metro
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Population (ZIP)
40,648
Household income
$107,349
Rent vs Own
14.8% rent · 85.2% own
Severe rent burden
407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
570,045 people
By 2030
605,844 · +6.3%
By 2040
674,806 · +18.4%
By 2050
736,022 · +29.1%
By 2075
862,900 · +51.4%
By 2100
906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
Race & ethnicity
White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
Common ancestry
Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
Foreign-born
20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
Languages at home
71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

2024 margin
Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing
-21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
All cycles
2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Market trends

HPI YoY
▼ -83.13%
Current HPI
263.2513
Rent YoY
▼ -0.37%
Metro
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
State GDP YoY
▲ 3.28%
F500 in state
36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry F500 HQs Revenue

Price history

+333.3% since first listed
19 events — show timeline
  • 2025-12-26 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-11-03 Price Changed $199,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-10-03 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-07-07 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2024-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
  • 2024-01-22 Sold (MLS) $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-12-21 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-09-08 Listed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2020-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
  • 2020-11-09 Sold (MLS) $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2020-10-07 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2020-08-14 Listed $82,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2013-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
  • 2013-03-22 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2010-11-10 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2010-07-01 Listing Removed Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2009-03-03 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2003-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
  • 2000-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,579 · +126.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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