2612 La Paz St · César Chávez, TX 78542

$139,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 233 Days on market

Built 1988 0.50 ac lot $122/sqft · 17% below area Est $169k · 17% under ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Starter Home in a Prime Location! Perfectly situated off North Alamo Rd, just before Rogers Rd, this property offers a spacious lot, no restrictions, and unbeatable convenience. Whether you’re a first-time buyer or simply looking for a comfortable place to call home, this is a great opportunity to own a well-priced home in a desirable area.

Key facts

• No restrictions
• Spacious lot
• Prime location

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• NO RESTRICTIONS
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-422/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Edinburg CISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #699 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1003 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,408 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,000
• List price: $139,999
• Delta: -17.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2003 Sanchez St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+11%)	18mo	$159,000	$124	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-28,302
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-40,579
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78542

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1003
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,154 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,852/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,199

Max offer price $133,790

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,999 Active 233 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,999 Active 232 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,999 Active 231 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,999 Active 230 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,999 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,999 Active 227 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,999 Active 225 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,999 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,999 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,999 Active 218 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active 217 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 216 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 215 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 214 DOM
15. 2025-12-29
    price $139,999 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Charming Starter Home in a Prime Location! Perfectly situated off North Alamo Rd, just before Rogers Rd, this property offers a spacious lot, no restrictions, and unbeatable convenience. Whether you’re a first-time buyer or simply looking for a comfortable place to call home, this is a great opportunity to own a well-priced home in a desirable area.

16. 2025-10-28
    listed $150,999 Active 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Charming Starter Home in a Prime Location! Perfectly situated off North Alamo Rd, just before Rogers Rd, this property offers a spacious lot, no restrictions, and unbeatable convenience. Whether you’re a first-time buyer or simply looking for a comfortable place to call home, this is a great opportunity to own a well-priced home in a desirable area.

17. 2025-10-02
    price $150,999
18. 2025-08-19
    listed $155,999 Active
19. 2014-09-11
    soldstatus
20. 2012-05-10
    soldstatus
21. 2007-08-24
    soldstatus
22. 2005-02-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,852 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$710/yr (+$59/mo · 38.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,852
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,108
• − Management: −$1,108
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,834
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$680
• After-tax cash flow: $258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edinburg CISD
• NCES district ID: 4818180
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $36,985
• Composite: 22.42/100
• National rank: #8114
• State rank: #699 of 826 in TX

Livability — César Chávez

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 89,401
• Household income: $55,243
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1240.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 59% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 15% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.17%
• Current HPI: 220.921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.07%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $139,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $150,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $150,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $155,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2014-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,852 · +19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.