10214 Allen Dr SW · Covington, GA 30014

$163,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 486 Days on market

Built 1972 0.28 ac lot Est $163k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom ranch home. This home features stylish updates including stainless steel kitchen appliances, granite countertops, and updated flooring throughout. Situated on a large level lot. Conveniently located near shopping, dining and more! Do not miss this great opportunity!

Key facts

• Large level lot
• Updated flooring
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• LARGE LEVEL LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.8% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#396 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Middle Ridge Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #936 of 1,228 statewide, top 79%, 577 students, 85% FRL); Clements Middle School (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #424 of 470 statewide, top 90%, 754 students, 85% FRL); Newton High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #365 of 424 statewide, top 88%, 2,472 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 59% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 479 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 486 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $163k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 486 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.19%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,624
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10214 Allen Dr SW	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,056 (0%)	0mo	$163,000	$154	100
10133 Morris Dr SW	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,056 (0%)	4mo	$158,400	$150	93
10154 Allen Dr SW	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,056 (0%)	6mo	$108,000	$102	88
10152 Griffin Ln SW	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,056 (0%)	12mo	$180,000	$170	86
9132 Thrash St SW	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,084 (+3%)	13mo	$219,000	$202	72
9160 Puckett St SW	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-0%)	6mo	$93,900	$89	70
7127 Greenway Cv SW	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,065 (+1%)	6mo	$165,000	$155	59
9248 Flat Shoals Rd SW	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (+7%)	3mo	$136,000	$120	57
9186 Puckett St	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,101 (+4%)	5mo	$125,000	$114	56
7112 Greenway Cv SW	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,065 (+1%)	8mo	$182,500	$171	56
8205 Kirk St SW	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,134 (+7%)	13mo	$224,900	$198	56
8118 SW Collier St SW	0.65mi	3/1.0	960 (-9%)	12mo	$147,000	$153	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-6,074
• Equity at exit: $24,304

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $9,515
• Equity at exit: $14,093

Cash invested: $45,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30014

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 479
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,025/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $163,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,750
• Closing costs: $4,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10154 Allen Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	20d	1	0.14mi
10154 Allen Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	5d	1	0.14mi
9161 Thrash St SW Covington, GA	4.0	2.0	1272	$1,481	$1.16	43d	1	0.15mi
9135 Jefferson Village Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.5	1126	$1,736	$1.54	5d	1	0.45mi
8246 Collier St SW Covington, GA	3.0	1.0	1225	$1,300	$1.06	43d	1	0.46mi
9123 Jefferson Village Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,750	$1.43	22d	1	0.47mi
100 Fleeta Dr Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,550	$1.12	5d	1	0.65mi
6100 Greenleaf Ct SW Covington, GA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	17d	1	0.85mi
375 Stone Ridge Way Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,870	$1.27	5d	1	0.93mi
6103 Oakwood Cir SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1372	$900	$0.66	17d	1	0.93mi
6154 Green Acres Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,900	$1.83	24d	1	0.98mi
65 Kenzi Way SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,000	$0.82	5d	1	1.04mi
8189 Spillers Dr SW Covington, GA	2.0	2.5	1080	$1,395	$1.29	5d	1	1.27mi
9220 Spillers Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,455	$1.22	5d	1	1.39mi
5132 Avery St SW Unit A (APT 101) Covington, GA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	5d	1	1.43mi
3233 West St Covington, GA	2.0	1.0	833	$1,195	$1.43	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-10
   price $163,000
3. 2025-07-19
   price $174,000
4. 2025-05-23
   price $187,000
5. 2024-12-20
   listed $193,000 New
6. 2020-12-23
   soldstatus $72,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,500 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$474/yr (+$40/mo · 46.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,131
• − Property taxes: −$1,025
• − Insurance: −$815
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$4,742
• Taxable income: $2,097
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$503
• After-tax cash flow: $4,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton County
• NCES district ID: 1303930
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,768
• Composite: 19.2/100
• National rank: #8816
• State rank: #137 of 174 in GA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #19602

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Newton County · 104,393 people
• City population: 104,393
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,425
• Household income: $72,254
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1934.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,372 people
• By 2030: 124,234 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 135,550 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 145,309 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 166,843 · +40.9%
• By 2100: 175,800 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.3% · R 42.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+2.4 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.50%
• Current HPI: 270.9868
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+125.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $163,000 GAMLS
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $174,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $187,000 GAMLS
• 2024-12-20 Listed $193,000 GAMLS
• 2020-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $72,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,025 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.