13508 Sierra Wind Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2006 5,989 sqft lot $169/sqft · 24% below area Est $288k · 24% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW ROOF. Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in Elgin, this beautiful home offers the perfect blend of charm, comfort, and modern design. Step inside to discover a bright and inviting open-concept living, dining, and kitchen layout designed for both relaxed living and effortless entertaining. The kitchen serves as the heart of the home, featuring granite countertops, a gas range, and a beautiful breakfast bar accented with custom stonework—the perfect gathering space for morning coffee, casual meals, or hosting friends and family. The thoughtfully designed floor plan offers three bedrooms and two bathrooms, with the private primary suite positioned away from the secondary bedrooms to create a peaceful retreat. The fully renovated primary bathroom features a sleek, modern design, creating a spa-like space to start and end your day, and is complemented by a generously sized walk-in closet. Throughout the home, you'll find gorgeous tile flooring in the main living areas, creating a balance of durability and comfort. The living room also features an electric fireplace, adding both character and warmth to the space. Step outside to enjoy a backyard designed for relaxation and entertaining. The backyard features a covered patio and a fun and refreshing cowboy pool, perfect for cooling off during warm Texas afternoons. All of this is conveniently located just minutes from everyday essentials, including H-E-B.

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Granite countertops

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE
• BREAKFAST BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-860/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,978
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -23.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13524 Sierra Wind Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,315 (+1%)	9mo	$190,680	$145	89
18432 Cloudmore Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-7%)	9mo	$225,000	$185	67
14108 Mussel Run	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-6%)	14mo	$235,000	$193	58
17900 Honey Locust Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+2%)	11mo	$230,742	$174	56
18409 Weatherby Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+14%)	13mo	$220,800	$149	53
13036 Date Palm Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,194 (-8%)	7mo	$221,000	$185	48
17909 Honey Locust Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,241 (-5%)	17mo	$229,000	$185	47
14109 Mussel Run	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+14%)	14mo	$255,000	$172	46
18153 Basketflower Bnd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+11%)	5mo	$230,000	$160	44
25609 Flora Bella Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+13%)	4mo	$279,990	$190	42
13100 County Line Rd	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,421 (+9%)	17mo	$425,000	$299	39
13705 Scarlett Song Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+13%)	10mo	$269,990	$184	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $115,661
• Equity at exit: $198,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $345,008
• Equity at exit: $427,412

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,085 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$448 /mo · $5,377/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,175

Max offer price $207,346

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	0.34mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	23d	1	0.34mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	0.49mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	17d	1	0.50mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	23d	1	0.51mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	23d	1	0.58mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	1d	1	0.61mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	0.72mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	16d	1	0.73mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	23d	1	0.73mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	43d	1	0.74mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	14d	1	1.02mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	43d	1	1.13mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	1d	6	1.34mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	1.37mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	23d	1	1.37mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	17d	1	1.40mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	1d	1	1.43mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	1.45mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: gaselectricpool

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $220,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-03-13
    listed $280,000 Active 1436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1436 chars)

    BRAND NEW ROOF. Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in Elgin, this beautiful home offers the perfect blend of charm, comfort, and modern design. Step inside to discover a bright and inviting open-concept living, dining, and kitchen layout designed for both relaxed living and effortless entertaining. The kitchen serves as the heart of the home, featuring granite countertops, a gas range, and a beautiful breakfast bar accented with custom stonework—the perfect gathering space for morning coffee, casual meals, or hosting friends and family. The thoughtfully designed floor plan offers three bedrooms and two bathrooms, with the private primary suite positioned away from the secondary bedrooms to create a peaceful retreat. The fully renovated primary bathroom features a sleek, modern design, creating a spa-like space to start and end your day, and is complemented by a generously sized walk-in closet. Throughout the home, you'll find gorgeous tile flooring in the main living areas, creating a balance of durability and comfort. The living room also features an electric fireplace, adding both character and warmth to the space. Step outside to enjoy a backyard designed for relaxation and entertaining. The backyard features a covered patio and a fun and refreshing cowboy pool, perfect for cooling off during warm Texas afternoons. All of this is conveniently located just minutes from everyday essentials, including H-E-B.

15. 2022-12-12
    soldstatus
16. 2022-12-09
    soldstatus Closed 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    * Eligible for USDA, VA, & FHA * Your next MOVE-IN Ready home! Located in Elgin TX this home sit in a cal-de-sac street, just 7 minutes from HEB, this updated home has an open concepts, dining and living room area. This gorgeous kitchen has granite counter tops, added stone on breakfast bar area, and gas range stove. The master bedroom is separate from secondary rooms with full master bath and walk great sized walk-in closet. Interior floors include carpet in all bedrooms and gorgeous tile throughout. This 3 bedroom 2 bath has lovely crown molding all around, living room is perfect for entertaining, and includes built-in shelves, Washer, dryer, ad refrigerator to covey with full price offer. The home backs to a greenbelt, has a covered patio, and extend porch that include cute shed in corner.

17. 2022-11-14
    status Pending 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    * Eligible for USDA, VA, & FHA * Your next MOVE-IN Ready home! Located in Elgin TX this home sit in a cal-de-sac street, just 7 minutes from HEB, this updated home has an open concepts, dining and living room area. This gorgeous kitchen has granite counter tops, added stone on breakfast bar area, and gas range stove. The master bedroom is separate from secondary rooms with full master bath and walk great sized walk-in closet. Interior floors include carpet in all bedrooms and gorgeous tile throughout. This 3 bedroom 2 bath has lovely crown molding all around, living room is perfect for entertaining, and includes built-in shelves, Washer, dryer, ad refrigerator to covey with full price offer. The home backs to a greenbelt, has a covered patio, and extend porch that include cute shed in corner.

18. 2022-11-08
    historical Active Under Contract 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    * Eligible for USDA, VA, & FHA * Your next MOVE-IN Ready home! Located in Elgin TX this home sit in a cal-de-sac street, just 7 minutes from HEB, this updated home has an open concepts, dining and living room area. This gorgeous kitchen has granite counter tops, added stone on breakfast bar area, and gas range stove. The master bedroom is separate from secondary rooms with full master bath and walk great sized walk-in closet. Interior floors include carpet in all bedrooms and gorgeous tile throughout. This 3 bedroom 2 bath has lovely crown molding all around, living room is perfect for entertaining, and includes built-in shelves, Washer, dryer, ad refrigerator to covey with full price offer. The home backs to a greenbelt, has a covered patio, and extend porch that include cute shed in corner.

19. 2022-11-05
    price $279,999 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    * Eligible for USDA, VA, & FHA * Your next MOVE-IN Ready home! Located in Elgin TX this home sit in a cal-de-sac street, just 7 minutes from HEB, this updated home has an open concepts, dining and living room area. This gorgeous kitchen has granite counter tops, added stone on breakfast bar area, and gas range stove. The master bedroom is separate from secondary rooms with full master bath and walk great sized walk-in closet. Interior floors include carpet in all bedrooms and gorgeous tile throughout. This 3 bedroom 2 bath has lovely crown molding all around, living room is perfect for entertaining, and includes built-in shelves, Washer, dryer, ad refrigerator to covey with full price offer. The home backs to a greenbelt, has a covered patio, and extend porch that include cute shed in corner.

20. 2022-10-19
    listed $290,000 Active 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    * Eligible for USDA, VA, & FHA * Your next MOVE-IN Ready home! Located in Elgin TX this home sit in a cal-de-sac street, just 7 minutes from HEB, this updated home has an open concepts, dining and living room area. This gorgeous kitchen has granite counter tops, added stone on breakfast bar area, and gas range stove. The master bedroom is separate from secondary rooms with full master bath and walk great sized walk-in closet. Interior floors include carpet in all bedrooms and gorgeous tile throughout. This 3 bedroom 2 bath has lovely crown molding all around, living room is perfect for entertaining, and includes built-in shelves, Washer, dryer, ad refrigerator to covey with full price offer. The home backs to a greenbelt, has a covered patio, and extend porch that include cute shed in corner.

21. 2009-11-30
    soldstatus
22. 2009-11-27
    historical
23. 2009-11-27
    soldstatus
24. 2009-09-02
    listed $119,900
25. 2007-10-03
    soldstatus
26. 2007-10-01
    soldstatus
27. 2007-10-01
    historical
28. 2007-08-25
    listed $120,000
29. 2006-05-05
    soldstatus
30. 2006-04-16
    historical
31. 2006-04-05
    listed $116,310

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,377 · $448/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,377 · $448/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$5,377
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,001
• − Management: −$2,001
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,488
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,077
• After-tax cash flow: $218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+140.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $280,000 Unlock MLS
• 2022-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-09 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2022-11-14 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2022-11-08 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2022-11-05 Price Changed $279,999 Unlock MLS
• 2022-10-19 Listed $290,000 Unlock MLS
• 2009-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-11-27 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2009-11-27 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2009-09-02 Listed $119,900 Unlock MLS
• 2007-10-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-10-01 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2007-10-01 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2007-08-25 Listed $120,000 Unlock MLS
• 2006-05-05 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2006-04-16 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2006-04-05 Listed $116,310 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,377 · -5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.