4015 Mossy Banks Ln · Houston, TX 77068

$379,900

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,895 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,884 sqft lot $131/sqft · 25% above area Est $304k · 25% over $54/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Cypress Creek Landing! Three-year-old home with upgrades galore! This spacious 2888 sq ft property features 5 beds, 3.5 baths, a game room, and a stylish kitchen with quartz counters, island, and stainless-steel appliances. The first-floor owner's retreat boasts a large walk-in closet and a luxurious bath with dual vanity sinks. Enjoy the backyard with an extended cover patio and gas connection for grilling. Additional features include a JR Suite, wrought iron staircase, porcelain tile floors, and a park with a playground in the community. Don't miss out on this beautiful home at 4015 Mossy Banks in Spring ISD!

Key facts

• Upgrades galore
• Quartz countertops
• Stylish kitchen

Tags

• UPGRADES GALORE
• GAME ROOM
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• ISLAND
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $380k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $380k).
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $106k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $379,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.47%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,999
• List price: $379,900
• Delta: 29.90%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15515 San Milo Dr	0.22mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,056 (+6%)	2mo	$345,000	$113	74
15406 Falling Creek Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,950 (+2%)	3mo	$315,000	$107	73
4022 Streambed Trl	0.23mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,792 (-4%)	2mo	$325,000	$116	72
3614 Shanemoss Ct	0.43mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,852 (-2%)	2mo	$299,990	$105	67
4218 Bayglen Ct	0.46mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,042 (+5%)	2mo	$384,786	$126	63
4418 Windmill Run Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,760 (-5%)	0mo	$332,000	$120	60
15727 Misty Hollow Dr	0.51mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,119 (+8%)	1mo	$359,000	$115	57
15007 Walters Rd	0.53mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,730 (-6%)	1mo	$279,900	$103	56
15302 Walters Rd	0.52mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,059 (+6%)	4mo	$215,000	$70	54
4215 False Cypress Ln	0.54mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,596 (-10%)	3mo	$285,000	$110	46
14543 Overland Hollow Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,606 (-10%)	5mo	$334,900	$129	45
3502 Stoney Oak Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,630 (-9%)	6mo	$350,000	$133	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $109,197
• Equity at exit: $71,442

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $310,353
• Equity at exit: $58,837

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77068

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$760 /mo · $9,116/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,459
• Net cashflow: $2,457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,836

Max offer price $379,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4622 Falling Sun Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2485	$2,500	$1.01	43d	1	0.65mi
5135 Westerham Pl Unit 1262307P Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	3358	$17,582	$5.24	21d	1	1.16mi
6302 Laver Love Dr Spring, TX	4.0	3.5	3553	$3,549	$1.00	5d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 638-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on marketlisting id $379,900 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $394,900 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $394,900 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $394,900 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $394,900 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $394,900 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $394,900 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $394,900 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $394,900 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $394,900 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $394,900 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    price $394,900 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Welcome to Cypress Creek Landing! Three-year-old home with upgrades galore! This spacious 2888 sq ft property features 5 beds, 3.5 baths, a game room, and a stylish kitchen with quartz counters, island, and stainless-steel appliances. The first-floor owner's retreat boasts a large walk-in closet and a luxurious bath with dual vanity sinks. Enjoy the backyard with an extended cover patio and gas connection for grilling. Additional features include a JR Suite, wrought iron staircase, porcelain tile floors, and a park with a playground in the community. Don't miss out on this beautiful home at 4015 Mossy Banks in Spring ISD!

17. 2026-03-04
    price $399,900 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Welcome to Cypress Creek Landing! Three-year-old home with upgrades galore! This spacious 2888 sq ft property features 5 beds, 3.5 baths, a game room, and a stylish kitchen with quartz counters, island, and stainless-steel appliances. The first-floor owner's retreat boasts a large walk-in closet and a luxurious bath with dual vanity sinks. Enjoy the backyard with an extended cover patio and gas connection for grilling. Additional features include a JR Suite, wrought iron staircase, porcelain tile floors, and a park with a playground in the community. Don't miss out on this beautiful home at 4015 Mossy Banks in Spring ISD!

18. 2026-01-28
    listed $414,990 Active 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Welcome to Cypress Creek Landing! Three-year-old home with upgrades galore! This spacious 2888 sq ft property features 5 beds, 3.5 baths, a game room, and a stylish kitchen with quartz counters, island, and stainless-steel appliances. The first-floor owner's retreat boasts a large walk-in closet and a luxurious bath with dual vanity sinks. Enjoy the backyard with an extended cover patio and gas connection for grilling. Additional features include a JR Suite, wrought iron staircase, porcelain tile floors, and a park with a playground in the community. Don't miss out on this beautiful home at 4015 Mossy Banks in Spring ISD!

19. 2025-11-08
    historical
20. 2025-09-17
    price $421,000
21. 2025-08-18
    price $425,000
22. 2025-07-18
    listed $435,000 Active
23. 2025-07-17
    historical
24. 2025-06-10
    price $439,500
25. 2025-05-13
    listed $449,900 Active
26. 2025-05-10
    historical
27. 2023-03-10
    soldstatus
28. 2023-03-09
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2023-03-05
    status Pending
30. 2023-01-20
    listed $450,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,116 · $760/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,116 · $760/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $83,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$9,116
• − Insurance: −$2,697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,669
• − Management: −$6,669
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable income: $25,228
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,055
• After-tax cash flow: $23,430/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This three-year-old home in Cypress Creek Landing is in good condition with recent upgrades and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready with a good ROI for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps home in good condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps home in good condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 12,289

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 31% White 23% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 28% Vietnamese 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.14%
• Current HPI: 206.5475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $394,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $399,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $414,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $421,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Listed $435,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $439,500 HARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Listed $449,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-10 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2023-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-03-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-03-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-01-20 Listed $450,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+143.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,116 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.