1611 S Erie St · Bay City, MI 48706

$139,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,935 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1900 5,227 sqft lot Est $180k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great value with tons of potential! This charming corner home features 3 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, beautiful hardwood floors, spacious eat-in kitchen, living & dining rooms, newer kitchen appliances included, abundant basement storage, and a 2-car garage. Large 2nd-floor flex space - use your imagination for an office, lounge, playroom, or additional living area! Conveniently located near downtown, parks, shopping, and dining. Sold AS-IS. Schedule your showing today - seller welcomes all reasonable offers. BATVAI

Key facts

• 2nd-floor flex space
• Eat-in kitchen
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NEWER KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• ABUNDANT BASEMENT STORAGE
• 2ND-FLOOR FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed by National Realty Centers, Inc.

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 garage spaces; Garage faces side
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Private road frontage on a privately maintained road; Lot approximately 0.12 acres (60 x 90)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Forced-air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Basement (unfinished) — utility space available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($921/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kolb Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 477 students, 72% FRL); Handy Middle School (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #387 of 493 statewide, top 78%, 685 students, 79% FRL); Bay City Central High School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #372 of 713 statewide, top 56%, 1,033 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 44% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,899 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,955
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1704 S Warner St	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,962 (+1%)	5mo	$183,000	$93	85
1508 Raymond St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,690 (-13%)	5mo	$174,500	$103	65
1811 S Chilson St	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,894 (-2%)	23mo	$136,000	$72	65
1312 Raymond St	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,750 (-10%)	14mo	$134,000	$77	57
1203 S WARNER RD St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,038 (+5%)	15mo	$126,900	$62	57
409 McCormick St	0.70mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,032 (+5%)	10mo	$92,962	$46	42
805 S Warner St	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,869 (-3%)	17mo	$117,500	$63	41
5163 Reinhardt Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,858 (-4%)	20mo	$188,500	$101	40
803 S Warner St	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,686 (-13%)	8mo	$158,000	$94	34
5149 Reinhardt Ln	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,672 (-14%)	10mo	$199,000	$119	32
3409 Parkway Dr	0.72mi	3/3.0	2,204 (+14%)	14mo	$265,000	$120	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-17,734
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-8,896
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,888/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,308

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $116	+0% $77	+5% $37	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-34	-5% $21	+0% $77	+5% $132	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $112	base $77	+0.5pp $41	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,999 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,999 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,999 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,999 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,999 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,999 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,999 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,999 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,999 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,999 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,999 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,999 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,999 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,999 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-28
    listed $139,999 Active

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    Great value with tons of potential! This charming corner home features 3 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, beautiful hardwood floors, spacious eat-in kitchen, living & dining rooms, newer kitchen appliances included, abundant basement storage, and a 2-car garage. Large 2nd-floor flex space - use your imagination for an office, lounge, playroom, or additional living area! Conveniently located near downtown, parks, shopping, and dining. Sold AS-IS. Schedule your showing today - seller welcomes all reasonable offers. BATVAI

19. 2026-05-28
    listed $139,999 Active 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    Great value with tons of potential! This charming corner home features 3 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, beautiful hardwood floors, spacious eat-in kitchen, living & dining rooms, newer kitchen appliances included, abundant basement storage, and a 2-car garage. Large 2nd-floor flex space - use your imagination for an office, lounge, playroom, or additional living area! Conveniently located near downtown, parks, shopping, and dining. Sold AS-IS. Schedule your showing today - seller welcomes all reasonable offers. BATVAI

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,888 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,888 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,888
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$322
• After-tax cash flow: $1,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $139,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listed $139,999 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,888 · +18.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.