10045 State Hwy 27 W #25 · Holmes City, MN 56308

$95,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 579 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 2005 38 ac lot $125/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy effortless summer living at Sun Valley Resort, a welcoming lakeside community designed for relaxation and recreation. Located just 100 feet from the water, this fully furnished 2005 seasonal home offers a simple, turn-key way to make the most of your time at the lake. The home features 1 bedroom and a spacious 3-season porch—perfect for morning coffee, evening gatherings, or unwinding after a day on the water. Sun Valley Resort offers a wide range of amenities to enhance your experience, including an inground heated swimming pool, dock access, fish cleaning house, storm shelter, two playgrounds, and a community center complete with a pool table, full kitchen, and on-site laundry. Whether you're seeking a weekend escape or a place to spend the entire summer, this is a comfortable and low-maintenance way to enjoy lakeside living. Simply arrive, relax, and start making lasting memories.

Key facts

• Fish cleaning house
• Dock access
• Fully furnished

Tags

• 100 FEET FROM THE WATER
• FULLY FURNISHED
• 3-SEASON PORCH
• INGROUND HEATED SWIMMING POOL
• DOCK ACCESS
• FISH CLEANING HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($957/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Alexandria Public School District (town): math 55% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #64 of 301 in MN (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 412 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 285 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (88 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.60%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-10,221
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-1,981
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56308

• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,090 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $989

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $113	+0% $80	+5% $47	+10% $14
Rent	-10% $-6	-5% $37	+0% $80	+5% $123	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $104	base $80	+0.5pp $55	+1.0pp $30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $104,900 Active 910-char remark

    Show marketing remark (910 chars)

    Enjoy effortless summer living at Sun Valley Resort, a welcoming lakeside community designed for relaxation and recreation. Located just 100 feet from the water, this fully furnished 2005 seasonal home offers a simple, turn-key way to make the most of your time at the lake. The home features 1 bedroom and a spacious 3-season porch—perfect for morning coffee, evening gatherings, or unwinding after a day on the water. Sun Valley Resort offers a wide range of amenities to enhance your experience, including an inground heated swimming pool, dock access, fish cleaning house, storm shelter, two playgrounds, and a community center complete with a pool table, full kitchen, and on-site laundry. Whether you're seeking a weekend escape or a place to spend the entire summer, this is a comfortable and low-maintenance way to enjoy lakeside living. Simply arrive, relax, and start making lasting memories.

18. 2008-11-15
    historical
19. 2008-08-05
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,047
• − Management: −$1,047
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$119
• After-tax cash flow: $1,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alexandria Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703060
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $52,476
• Composite: 48.0/100
• National rank: #2197
• State rank: #64 of 301 in MN

Livability — Holmes City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Douglas County · 27,008 people
• Metro: Alexandria, MN
• Population (ZIP): 27,008
• Household income: $78,177
• Rent vs Own: 27.4% rent · 72.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,913 people
• By 2030: 39,636 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 40,564 · +4.2%
• By 2050: 40,819 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 40,824 · +4.9%
• By 2100: 38,379 · -1.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 22% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.1) · D 31.7% · R 66.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.5pp · 2024: -35.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.1 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+35.8 2012: R+15.5 2008: R+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.15%
• Current HPI: 189.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Alexandria, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+16.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $104,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-05 Listed $89,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid