3016 Club Rancho · Palmdale, CA 93551

$679,900

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,341 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2005 6,338 sqft lot Est $758k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious West Palmdale property located near the Rancho Vista Golf course!!! This home features 3341 sqft with 5 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms!! Enter the huge open kitchen boasting plenty of cabinet space and granite countertops. Not only do you get the Front living room, formal dining and a Family room, there is a bonus eating/family area off the kitchen looking out at the back patio. The natural light and high ceilings will make you want to call this home your own!! Close to stores, Marie Kerr Park, schools, and the Antelope Valley Mall!!! Stop by and take a look today!!

Key facts

• 6,338 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Curbs and sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: Planned development; Two-story; Entry level 1; No common walls
• Construction: Year built (public records)
• Exterior features: House; No pool; 0-1 Unit/Acre lot features; Has view

Interior

• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Two levels; Main floor bedroom; Main level bathroom; Separate family room; Bonus room; Has fireplace (den)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Laundry on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $680k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $819 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $675k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $675k (0.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,745/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) (locally 1168% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 40% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $457k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $674,523 (0.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $758,407
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40637 Pinina Ct	0.41mi	6/4.0 (+1)	3,341 (0%)	1mo	$810,870	$243	75
40741 Oakmont Ct	0.35mi	6/4.0 (+1)	3,482 (+4%)	2mo	$750,000	$215	70
2651 W Avenue O	0.41mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,424 (+2%)	2mo	$1,125,000	$329	64
3431 Fairgreen Ln	0.41mi	5/3.0	3,256 (-2%)	12mo	$610,000	$187	63
3539 Tamarisk Dr	0.55mi	5/3.0	3,256 (-2%)	10mo	$665,000	$204	58
2745 W Avenue N12	0.23mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,904 (-13%)	2mo	$1,200,000	$413	57
3201 Club Rancho	0.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,850 (-15%)	2mo	$630,000	$221	57
3642 Club Rancho	0.63mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,482 (+4%)	2mo	$664,870	$191	57
40333 Preston Rd	0.75mi	5/3.0	3,256 (-2%)	2mo	$650,000	$200	55
40609 Saddle Brook Ct	0.24mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,850 (-15%)	3mo	$690,000	$242	53
3721 Club Rancho Dr	0.70mi	5/4.0	3,032 (-9%)	2mo	$687,000	$227	50
3445 W Avenue N3	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,320 (-1%)	8mo	$900,000	$271	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-62,791
• Equity at exit: $101,375

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-6,901
• Equity at exit: $58,785

Cash invested: $190,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93551

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,745 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,565
• Tax from tax record: −$661 /mo · $7,928/yr
• Insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,416
• Net cashflow: $819

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,708

Max offer price $679,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,204	-5% $1,012	+0% $819	+5% $627	+10% $434
Rent	-10% $286	-5% $553	+0% $819	+5% $1,086	+10% $1,352
Rate	-1.0pp $1,162	-0.5pp $992	base $819	+0.5pp $643	+1.0pp $464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $169,975
• Closing costs: $20,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3423 Racquet Ln Palmdale, CA	5.0	3.0	2944	$7,500	$2.55	2d	1	0.45mi
40028 25th St W Palmdale, CA	4.0	3.0	3242	$6,500	$2.00	2d	1	0.87mi
4138 Club Vista Dr Palmdale, CA	5.0	4.0	3146	$7,500	$2.38	2d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $679,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $679,900 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $679,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $679,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-05-31
   listed $679,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,928 · $661/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,928 · $661/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $80,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,085
• − Property taxes: −$7,928
• − Insurance: −$3,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,475
• − Management: −$6,475
• − Depreciation: −$19,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,200
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$288
• After-tax cash flow: $10,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0642120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,763
• Composite: 41.01/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #565 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,360
• Household income: $119,801
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 33% Two or more races 17% Black 10% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.22%
• Current HPI: 327.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-62.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Coming Soon $679,900 CRMLS
• 2020-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $453,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-08 Sold (MLS) $457,000 AVMLS
• 2020-02-22 Pending — AVMLS
• 2020-02-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-02-06 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2020-01-17 Pending — AVMLS
• 2020-01-09 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2020-01-09 Price Changed $450,000 CRMLS
• 2020-01-06 Price Changed $450,000 AVMLS
• 2019-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2019-10-21 Price Changed $480,000 CRMLS
• 2019-10-17 Price Changed $480,000 AVMLS
• 2019-08-15 Listed $485,000 CRMLS
• 2019-08-12 Listed $485,900 AVMLS
• 2002-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $1,822,510 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,928 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.