310 W 4th St · Fair Play, MO 65649

$60,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · Other public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1900 0.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This investment property is packed with potential and sits on approximately . 48 acres directly next to Fair Play R-II School District, making the location a strong fit for future development, rentals, or resale opportunities. The main residence is a 3 bedroom, 1 bath home that will require major renovation to bring it up to date, but still offers some beautiful architectural character and solid potential for the right investor or remodel project. A major feature of the property is the additional poured concrete basement/foundation already in place and ready for a residence to potentially be built above it. This adds flexibility for expansion, new construction, or future investment plans. W

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

Tags

• FAIR PLAY R-II SCHOOL DISTRICT
• POURED CONCRETE BASEMENT
• POTENTIAL FOR SUBDIVISION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage not specified, includes 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane utility service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Patio; Outbuilding on the property; Asphalt road frontage on a public maintained city street

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Fireplace heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Gas/propane fireplace with insert
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#859 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fair Play R-II (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #266 of 535 in MO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fair Play Elem. (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #159 of 1,115 statewide, top 16%, 188 students, 98% FRL); Fair Play High (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 139 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 56% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.45%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $39,000
• Equity at exit: $30,001

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.65×
• Total profit: $94,913
• Equity at exit: $48,737

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65649

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,065 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $569/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $490

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $60,000 Active
16. 2021-10-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $582 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$13/yr (+$1/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$569
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,022
• − Management: −$1,022
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $4,759
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,142
• After-tax cash flow: $4,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fair Play R-II
• NCES district ID: 2911730
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $37,331
• Composite: 37.67/100
• National rank: #8787
• State rank: #266 of 535 in MO

Livability — Fair Play

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #24972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fair Play, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,152

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,229 people
• By 2030: 31,227 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 31,104 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 30,553 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 29,332 · -6.1%
• By 2100: 26,387 · -15.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.6% · R 80.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -32.1pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.5 2016: R+56.9 2012: R+43.2 2008: R+32.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Current HPI: 266.2512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $60,000 SOMO
• 2021-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $569 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.