41 Pond Hill Rd · Copake Lake, NY 12521

$485,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1975 3.70 ac lot $311/sqft · 13% below area Est $556k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Great Escape. This 3 BR, 2 BA, 1560 sf home is sited on over 3 acres. Cathedral ceiling, open floor plan. Sizable deck and exclusive balcony off the upper level en-suite. Private setting, but not isolated. On a dead-end road and within close proximity to Copake Country Club, Copake Lake and all that the area has to offer. Pretty much equal distance between trending Hudson, New York and Great Barrington, Massachusetts. Catamount Ski Mountain is about 15 minutes away. Two hours to New York City and two and one-half hours to Boston. . Final and best offers due on Friday, January 14 at noon in writing to listing broker. A decision was made and there is a back-up. Seller wishes to have all the paperwork signed before allowing the status to be changed. We will continue to show.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Just under 4 acres
• Private balcony

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• GENEROUS DECK
• CATHEDRAL CEILING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MATURE TREES
• JUST UNDER 4 ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Deeded lake access; Community lake

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electrical service
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Board & batten siding; Wood siding; Slab foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Built in 1,560 sq ft above grade
• Exterior features: Private yard; Deck; Shed(s); Scenic view; Many trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Pellet stove heating
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Skylights; Pellet stove fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $485k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $485k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.4% in Copake Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#841 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $136k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $485,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.68%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $556,355
• List price: $485,000
• Delta: -12.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41 Pond Hill Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,560 (0%)	1mo	$490,000	$314	97
12 Pauline Pl	0.40mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,454 (-7%)	4mo	$550,000	$378	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $348,357
• Equity at exit: $436,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.07×
• Total profit: $959,784
• Equity at exit: $942,248

Cash invested: $135,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12521

• Home prices YoY: 23.4%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax from tax record: −$554 /mo · $6,643/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,228
• Net cashflow: $1,321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,176

Max offer price $485,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,596	-5% $1,459	+0% $1,321	+5% $1,184	+10% $1,047
Rent	-10% $859	-5% $1,090	+0% $1,321	+5% $1,552	+10% $1,783
Rate	-1.0pp $1,566	-0.5pp $1,445	base $1,321	+0.5pp $1,196	+1.0pp $1,068

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,250
• Closing costs: $14,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 1503-char remark
2. 2026-05-10
   historical Active Under Contract 1503-char remark
3. 2026-04-29
   listed $485,000 Active 1503-char remark
4. 2022-04-19
   soldstatus $465,000
5. 2022-04-08
   soldstatus $465,000

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   A Great Escape. This 3 BR, 2 BA, 1560 sf home is sited on over 3 acres. Cathedral ceiling, open floor plan. Sizable deck and exclusive balcony off the upper level en-suite. Private setting, but not isolated. On a dead-end road and within close proximity to Copake Country Club, Copake Lake and all that the area has to offer. Pretty much equal distance between trending Hudson, New York and Great Barrington, Massachusetts. Catamount Ski Mountain is about 15 minutes away. Two hours to New York City and two and one-half hours to Boston. . Final and best offers due on Friday, January 14 at noon in writing to listing broker. A decision was made and there is a back-up. Seller wishes to have all the paperwork signed before allowing the status to be changed. We will continue to show.

6. 2021-12-29
   listed $399,000

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   A Great Escape. This 3 BR, 2 BA, 1560 sf home is sited on over 3 acres. Cathedral ceiling, open floor plan. Sizable deck and exclusive balcony off the upper level en-suite. Private setting, but not isolated. On a dead-end road and within close proximity to Copake Country Club, Copake Lake and all that the area has to offer. Pretty much equal distance between trending Hudson, New York and Great Barrington, Massachusetts. Catamount Ski Mountain is about 15 minutes away. Two hours to New York City and two and one-half hours to Boston. . Final and best offers due on Friday, January 14 at noon in writing to listing broker. A decision was made and there is a back-up. Seller wishes to have all the paperwork signed before allowing the status to be changed. We will continue to show.

7. 2016-08-30
   listed $299,500
8. 2015-07-28
   soldstatus $102,500
9. 2001-05-10
   soldstatus $147,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,643 · $554/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,420 · $618/mo
• Expected delta: +$777/yr (+$65/mo · 11.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,168
• − Property taxes: −$6,643
• − Insurance: −$2,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,615
• − Management: −$5,615
• − Depreciation: −$14,109
• Taxable income: $8,609
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,066
• After-tax cash flow: $13,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taconic Hills Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628620
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $57,329
• Composite: 45.16/100
• National rank: #2676
• State rank: #335 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copake Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #841
• US rank: #16329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Copake Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,874

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.58%
• Current HPI: 441.0272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+232.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $490,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $490,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-10 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $485,000 HVCRMLS
• 2022-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $465,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-08 Sold (MLS) $465,000 HVCRMLS
• 2021-12-29 Listed $399,000 HVCRMLS
• 2016-08-30 Listed $299,500 HVCRMLS
• 2015-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records
• 2001-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $147,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,643 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.