9474 Abram Penn Hwy · Patrick Springs, VA 24133

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 95 Days on market

Built 1960 0.98 ac lot $121/sqft · 23% below area Est $182k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in Patrick Springs you will find this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. This home features three nice sized bedrooms with closets. Enjoy preparing meals on the expansive counter tops and buffet. Everything you need located on one level. Put a few rocking chairs on the front porch to take in the fresh country air. This is a must-see property that you do not want to overlook.

Key facts

• 0.98 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 94 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-292/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#223 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Patrick County Public School District (rural): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #18 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Patrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Patrick County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $140k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,202 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,520
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -22.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2130 County Line Rd	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,005 (-13%)	13mo	$190,000	$189	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $33,139
• Equity at exit: $81,960

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $100,260
• Equity at exit: $143,720

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24133

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,002 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $288/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,033

Max offer price $135,605

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 572-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $139,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,300 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,300 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,300 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,300 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,300 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-04-10
    price $145,300 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Nestled in Patrick Springs you will find this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. This home features three nice sized bedrooms with closets. Enjoy preparing meals on the expansive counter tops and buffet. Everything you need located on one level. Put a few rocking chairs on the front porch to take in the fresh country air. This is a must-see property that you do not want to overlook.

19. 2026-03-16
    listed $149,900 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Nestled in Patrick Springs you will find this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. This home features three nice sized bedrooms with closets. Enjoy preparing meals on the expansive counter tops and buffet. Everything you need located on one level. Put a few rocking chairs on the front porch to take in the fresh country air. This is a must-see property that you do not want to overlook.

20. 2021-09-27
    soldstatus $72,000 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    ute Ranch on almost one acre in the country! This home has two bedrooms with a potential third bedroom - no closet. Gated entrance. New carpet and paint! Sq. ft. lot size est. Information taken from tax assessment and/or seller. Call or text 276-252-8673 for showing instructions

21. 2021-09-27
    soldstatus $72,000

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    ute Ranch on almost one acre in the country! This home has two bedrooms with a potential third bedroom - no closet. Gated entrance. New carpet and paint! Sq. ft. lot size est. Information taken from tax assessment and/or seller. Call or text 276-252-8673 for showing instructions

22. 2021-09-24
    soldstatus $72,000
23. 2021-04-16
    listed $74,900 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    ute Ranch on almost one acre in the country! This home has two bedrooms with a potential third bedroom - no closet. Gated entrance. New carpet and paint! Sq. ft. lot size est. Information taken from tax assessment and/or seller. Call or text 276-252-8673 for showing instructions

24. 2021-04-15
    listed $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $288 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,147 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$860/yr (+$72/mo · 298.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$288
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$962
• − Management: −$962
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$670
• After-tax cash flow: $379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patrick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102880
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,331
• Composite: 60.52/100
• National rank: #842
• State rank: #18 of 131 in VA

Livability — Patrick Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #223
• US rank: #7412

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,521

Population outlook (Patrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,918 people
• By 2030: 16,097 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,317 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 12,476 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 9,051 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 6,138 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Patrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -30.6pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+30.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.31%
• Current HPI: 147.2281
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+94.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $145,300 MHPCAR
• 2026-03-16 Listed $149,900 MHPCAR
• 2021-09-27 Sold (MLS) $72,000 MHPCAR
• 2021-09-27 Sold (MLS) $72,000 MLSRV
• 2021-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-16 Listed $74,900 MLSRV
• 2021-04-15 Listed $74,900 MHPCAR

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $288 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.