11 Pine Rd W · Coldspring, TX 77331

$69,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Built 1996 Fair condition 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on approximately 1/4 acre, this well-maintained manufactured home offers a blend of comfort, functionality, and country charm. The home features a spacious primary bedroom with the potential to be converted into two separate bedrooms, providing flexibility to meet a variety of living needs. Enjoy the outdoors year-round from the inviting screened-in porch, perfect for relaxing with your morning coffee or unwinding in the evenings. The property is enhanced by mature shade trees, a fenced yard, and multiple garden and tool storage areas, offering ample space for hobbies, equipment, and outdoor projects. No HOA and conveniently located just minutes from Lake Livingston, allowing easy a

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Fenced yard
• Mature shade trees

Tags

• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• FENCED YARD
• GARDEN AND TOOL STORAGE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1996
• Construction: Built in 1996; Total building area approximately 1,530
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision; Lot about 0.27 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor, approximately 11 x 10
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Single main living area (studio-like layout)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $659 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 4.3% in Coldspring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,357 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Coldspring-Oakhurst H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 496 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.94%
• DSCR: 2.82
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $30,817
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $80,975
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77331

• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $659

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $707	-5% $683	+0% $659	+5% $635	+10% $611
Rent	-10% $545	-5% $602	+0% $659	+5% $716	+10% $773
Rate	-1.0pp $694	-0.5pp $677	base $659	+0.5pp $641	+1.0pp $623

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $69,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $7,241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,738
• After-tax cash flow: $6,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with average exterior and interior features. It requires some minor repairs and maintenance, particularly in the landscaping and interior walls. Upgrades such as painting and landscaping improvements can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Some plants appear overgrown
• Minor Interior walls — Paint appears slightly faded

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Some plants appear overgrown	Minor	$500–3,000
Interior walls · Paint appears slightly faded	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coldspring

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1357
• US rank: #23364

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,348

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.98%
• Current HPI: 199.0493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $69,000 HARMLS