11 Pine Rd W · Coldspring, TX 77331

$68,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · Manufactured · 149 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1996 Fair condition 0.27 ac lot $44/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.6

Listing remarks

Nestled on approximately 1/4 acre, this well-maintained manufactured home offers a blend of comfort, functionality, and country charm. The home features a spacious primary bedroom with the potential to be converted into two separate bedrooms, providing flexibility to meet a variety of living needs. Enjoy the outdoors year-round from the inviting screened-in porch, perfect for relaxing with your morning coffee or unwinding in the evenings. The property is enhanced by mature shade trees, a fenced yard, and multiple garden and tool storage areas, offering ample space for hobbies, equipment, and outdoor projects.

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Fenced yard
• Mature shade trees

Tags

• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• FENCED YARD
• GARDEN AND TOOL STORAGE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $443 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 3.3% in Coldspring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,357 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Street El (449 students, 70% FRL); Lincoln J H (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 347 students, 58% FRL); Coldspring-Oakhurst H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 514 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.89%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,094
• List price: $68,000
• Delta: -60.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Pine Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+2)	1,557 (+2%)	4mo	$305,000	$196	70
1100 Hwy 150	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+2)	1,568 (+2%)	14mo	$235,000	$150	59
190 Faulkner Ave	0.93mi	3/2.0 (+2)	1,521 (-1%)	6mo	$299,000	$197	45
215 Bar Park Loop	0.93mi	3/1.0 (+2)	1,680 (+10%)	3mo	$169,000	$101	36
1220 Fm 222 Loop N	1.47mi	2/2.5 (+1)	1,360 (-11%)	3mo	$350,000	$257	33
325 Cemetery Rd	1.77mi	3/2.0 (+2)	1,392 (-9%)	7mo	$223,999	$161	30
621 Fm 1514 Rd	1.67mi	3/2.0 (+2)	1,408 (-8%)	12mo	$175,000	$124	28
1120 Fm 222 Loop N	1.40mi	3/2.0 (+2)	1,152 (-25%)	4mo	$129,900	$113	22
219 E Pine Ave	1.27mi	3/2.0 (+2)	1,332 (-13%)	11mo	$350,000	$263	21
2595 Fm 222 Loop N	0.89mi	3/2.0 (+2)	1,120 (-27%)	10mo	$179,000	$160	17
2585 State Highway 150	1.15mi	3/2.0 (+2)	1,784 (+17%)	14mo	$409,900	$230	14
60 W Sierra Rd	1.20mi	3/2.0 (+2)	1,112 (-27%)	14mo	$215,000	$193	14

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $17,183
• Equity at exit: $10,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $51,325
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77331

• Active inventory: 514
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,155 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $595

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $490	-5% $466	+0% $443	+5% $419	+10% $396
Rent	-10% $351	-5% $397	+0% $443	+5% $488	+10% $534
Rate	-1.0pp $477	-0.5pp $460	base $443	+0.5pp $425	+1.0pp $407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 Texas 150 Unit 1 Coldspring, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	0d	1	1.01mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 1996
• Construction: Built in 1996Total building area approximately 1,530
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivisionLot about 0.27 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor, approximately 11 x 10
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Single main living area (studio-like layout)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $68,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $68,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $68,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $68,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $68,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $68,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $68,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $68,000 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $68,000 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $68,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $68,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $68,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $68,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $68,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $68,000 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $68,000 Active 133 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $68,000 Active 132 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $68,000 Active 131 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $68,000 Active 130 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $68,000 Active 129 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $68,000 Active 128 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $68,000 Active 127 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $68,000 Active 126 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $68,000 Active 125 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $68,000 Active 124 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $68,000 Active 123 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $68,000 Active 122 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $68,000 Active 121 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $68,000 Active 120 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $68,000 Active 119 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $68,000 Active 118 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $68,000 Active 117 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $68,000 Active 116 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $68,000 Active 115 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $68,000 Active 114 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $68,000 Active 113 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $68,000 Active 112 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $68,000 Active 111 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $68,000 Active 110 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $68,000 Active 109 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $68,000 Active 108 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $68,000 Active 107 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $68,000 Active 106 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $68,000 Active 105 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $68,000 Active 104 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $68,000 Active 103 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $68,000 Active 102 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $68,000 Active 100 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $68,000 Active 98 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $68,000 Active 97 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,109
• − Management: −$1,109
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $4,495
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,079
• After-tax cash flow: $4,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $38,250–$68,850 screening

The home is in fair condition with average exterior and interior features. It requires some minor repairs and maintenance, particularly in the landscaping and interior walls. Upgrades such as painting and landscaping improvements can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Some plants appear overgrown
• Minor Interior walls — Paint appears slightly faded

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Street El Middle Lincoln J H F TX #1,387/1,662 Nat'l #11,464/14,009 High Coldspring-Oakhurst H S F TX #1,044/1,632 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 55/100

Livability — Coldspring

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1357
• US rank: #23364

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Jacinto · 29,069 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,348
• Household income: $50,321
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.98%
• Current HPI: 199.0493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 1996
• Construction: Built in 1996Total building area approximately 1,530
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivisionLot about 0.27 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor, approximately 11 x 10
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Single main living area (studio-like layout)

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $69,000 HARMLS