3176 Harlequin Ln · St. Louis, MO 63139

$260,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,002 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1990 3,362 sqft lot Est $402k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,362 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Columbia Elem. Comm. Ed. Ctr. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 221 students, 99% FRL); Beaumont Cte High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 236 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.27%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $402,402
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3215 Jasper Park	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,952 (-2%)	1mo	$450,000	$231	90
3285 Jasper Park	0.22mi	3/3.5	2,161 (+8%)	2mo	$356,000	$165	71
2637 Pearl Ave	0.43mi	3/3.0	2,128 (+6%)	1mo	$450,000	$211	67
6221 Hancock Ave	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,916 (-4%)	1mo	$450,000	$235	60
5621 Botanical Ave	0.59mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,857 (-7%)	0mo	$400,000	$215	55
5556 Arthur Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,730 (-14%)	0mo	$235,000	$136	55
6028 Potomac St	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (-5%)	1mo	$259,000	$136	53
2636 Hereford St	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,873 (-6%)	1mo	$205,000	$109	50
5662 Tholozan Ave	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,160 (+8%)	1mo	$324,500	$150	48
4978 Odell St	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,214 (+11%)	1mo	$489,000	$221	45
6020 Potomac St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,843 (-8%)	1mo	$234,900	$127	44
5821 Oleatha Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,741 (-13%)	2mo	$350,000	$201	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-15,118
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $41,666
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63139

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,680 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,901/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,275

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $467	-5% $394	+0% $320	+5% $246	+10% $173
Rent	-10% $108	-5% $214	+0% $320	+5% $426	+10% $532
Rate	-1.0pp $451	-0.5pp $386	base $320	+0.5pp $253	+1.0pp $184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5713 Parc Ridge Way Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	2430	$2,625	$1.08	44d	1	0.17mi
2734 59th St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	2060	$3,999	$1.94	21d	1	0.38mi
2732 59th St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	2060	$3,999	$1.94	21d	1	0.39mi
6020 Juniata St Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1661	$2,750	$1.66	3d	1	0.40mi
6042 Hancock Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1400	$3,500	$2.50	24d	1	0.59mi
6114 Columbia Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	24d	1	0.70mi
5300 Bancroft Ave Unit A St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1404	$1,295	$0.92	24d	1	0.97mi
3161 Alfred Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,435	$1.02	15d	1	1.10mi
4609 Cleveland Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,200	$1.57	22d	1	1.19mi
2053 Alfred Ave St. Louis, MO	4.0	3.0	1768	$1,975	$1.12	44d	1	1.37mi
4145-4147 Hartford St St. Louis, MO	4.0	3.5	2400	$3,800	$1.58	12d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $260,000 Active
3. 1991-07-31
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,901 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,901 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$3,901
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,572
• − Management: −$2,572
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$77
• After-tax cash flow: $3,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $75,757
• Rent vs Own: 37.4% rent · 62.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 653.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 16% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.54%
• Current HPI: 256.7513
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.39%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $260,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,901 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.