221 Picabo St Unit E, Interest 2-H · Ketchum, ID 83340

$240,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,500 sqft · Condo · 61 Days on market

Built 2002 Good condition $1579/mo HOA · 50% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Own a Luxury Mountain Retreat — Without the Hassle Fractional ownership is the smart, modern way to enjoy a premier vacation home. You get all the prestige and pleasure of ownership at a fraction of the cost — with none of the upkeep. Wake to breathtaking mountain vistas, steps from world-class ski lifts. This elegant 3-story condo features a private elevator, soaring fireplaces, a gourmet kitchen, and impeccably curated luxury furnishings throughout. Two summer 2026 weeks transfer with purchase and buyer to have two choises: Option A offers one June week and one October week: June 19 or June 26, and Oct 9 or Oct 23. Option B offers two consecutive weeks: June 19–July 3,

Key facts

• Year-round hot tub
• Private elevator
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE ELEVATOR
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• ON-SITE PRIVATE STORAGE
• CLUBHOUSE WITH FITNESS CENTER
• SEASONAL OUTDOOR POOL
• YEAR-ROUND HOT TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Warm Springs Village
• HOA & community: Association dues are paid quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Finished driveway; Garage interior approx. 20 x 21
• Utilities: City water; Sewer connected; Cable connected; Broadband internet
• Home design: Condominium; Built in 2002; Builder: Nash Construction Inc.
• Construction: Frame, stone and stucco construction; Crawl space foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; Community spa / hot tub; Views; Sidewalks; Auto sprinkler / full sprinkler system; Property is in a flood plain; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Built-in oven/range; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Master bedroom on upper level; One bedroom on main level; Two bedrooms on lower level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 4 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; 2 gas fireplaces with inserts
• Interior features: Bath in master bedroom; Guest room; Den/office; Great room; Two master bedrooms; Walk-in closet(s); Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Utility room on lower level
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric and gas water heaters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-810 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (48.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (48.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#76 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Blaine County District (town): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #47 of 92 in ID (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ernest Hemingway Steam School (math 55% / reading 63%, grade B-, #84 of 357 statewide, top 24%, 501 students, 20% FRL); Wood River Middle School (math 35% / reading 51%, grade D-, #62 of 109 statewide, top 58%, 568 students, 32% FRL); Wood River High School (math 27% / reading 54%, grade F, #83 of 169 statewide, top 49%, 986 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Blaine County in 2024 (19 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Blaine County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 50% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,770 (48.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 2.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.28%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $80,170
• Equity at exit: $216,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $278,771
• Equity at exit: $466,267

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83340

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,157 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$1,579
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$663
• Net cashflow: $-810

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,182

Max offer price $122,770

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-644	-5% $-727	+0% $-810	+5% $-893	+10% $-976
Rent	-10% $-1,060	-5% $-935	+0% $-810	+5% $-685	+10% $-561
Rate	-1.0pp $-689	-0.5pp $-749	base $-810	+0.5pp $-872	+1.0pp $-936

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,579 · $18,948/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $240,000 Active
17. 2023-07-28
    price $249,000
18. 2023-03-02
    price $289,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 11 d/yr ≥82°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,997
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,031
• − Management: −$3,031
• − HOA: −$18,948
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$13,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,156
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This luxury mountain retreat is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a gourmet kitchen, large windows with mountain views, and a well-maintained exterior. The property is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both update flooring — modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both update flooring — modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine County District
• NCES district ID: 1600300
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,869
• Composite: 38.51/100
• National rank: #4175
• State rank: #47 of 92 in ID

Livability — Ketchum

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #9340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ketchum, ID
• Population (ZIP): 5,379

Population outlook (Blaine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,350 people
• By 2030: 22,411 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 21,897 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 21,062 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 19,591 · -12.3%
• By 2100: 17,221 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Serbian 7% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Blaine

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+31.7) · D 64.4% · R 32.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: 33.2pp · 2024: 31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+31.7 2020: D+36.8 2016: D+28.7 2012: D+20.1 2008: D+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.04%
• Current HPI: 272.384
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $240,000 IMLS
• 2023-07-28 Price Changed $249,000 SVBOR
• 2023-03-02 Price Changed $289,000 SVBOR