19865 SE Highway 42 · Silver Springs Shores East, FL 32784

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,974 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1999 Est $134k · 45% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover peaceful country living at 19865 SE Hwy 42 in Umatilla! This property offers privacy, space, and convenience with easy access to The Villages, Ocala, and surrounding areas. Nestled on a spacious lot, the home welcomes you with a long driveway, screened porch, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable floor plan with natural light, functional living spaces, and endless potential to make it your own. Zoned for Stanton-Weirsdale Elementary, Lake Weir Middle, and Lake Weir High, this home combines a quiet lifestyle with nearby schools, shopping, and dining. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, a family retreat, or an investment opportunity, this Umatilla property is ready to meet your vision.

Key facts

• Recent survey
• 3 acres flat land
• Built 1999

Tags

• 3 ACRES FLAT LAND
• HIGH AND DRY NO FLOOD ZONE
• WELL AND SEPTIC BOTH GOOD
• DUKE POWER ELECTRICITY IS ON
• HIGH SPEED CABLE INTERNET
• RECENT SURVEY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.2% in Silver Springs Shores East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,713 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.61%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,232
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19865 SE Highway 42	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,974 (0%)	8mo	$135,000	$68	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-24,072
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,415
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32784

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,697 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,415/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,547

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $229	-5% $174	+0% $119	+5% $64	+10% $9
Rent	-10% $-15	-5% $52	+0% $119	+5% $186	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $217	-0.5pp $169	base $119	+0.5pp $68	+1.0pp $17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $195,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,415 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,618 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$204/yr (+$17/mo · 14.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,415
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,629
• − Management: −$1,629
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$1,879
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$451
• After-tax cash flow: $1,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores East

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,859

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.66%
• Current HPI: 352.4197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+204.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $195,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-07 Sold (MLS) $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-17 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-15 Listed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-20 Listed $164,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,415 · +20.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.