2302 S 38th St · Abilene, TX 79605

$175,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,313 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1961 8,059 sqft lot $133/sqft · 7% below area Est $187k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this super cute and charming 4 bedroom, 1.5-bath property perfectly situated on a desirable corner lot! This move-in ready home offers a warm and inviting feel from the moment you arrive, complete with lovely curb appeal that makes a lasting first impression. Inside, you’ll find spacious living areas with durable and stylish tile flooring throughout perfect for easy maintenance and everyday living. Step outside to enjoy the large backyard, offering endless possibilities for entertaining, gardening, or simply relaxing under the open sky. With its combination of charm, practicality, and location, this home is truly a must-see! Don’t miss your chance to own this adorable, well-maintained home ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Tile flooring
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• TILE FLOORING
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+32.1%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.95%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,470
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -6.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2302 S 38th St	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,313 (0%)	0mo	$175,000	$133	100
2410 S 41st St	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,326 (+1%)	11mo	$199,900	$151	78
2325 S 33rd St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,304 (-1%)	8mo	$145,000	$111	71
2509 S 41st St	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,386 (+6%)	8mo	$145,000	$105	68
2601 S 39th St	0.17mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,419 (+8%)	8mo	$185,000	$130	67
3232 Sayles Blvd	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,243 (-5%)	0mo	$100,000	$80	64
2518 Edgemont Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,317 (+0%)	5mo	$219,900	$167	59
4333 Mary Lou Ln	0.66mi	4/1.5	1,368 (+4%)	5mo	$215,000	$157	58
2526 Edgemont Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (+7%)	2mo	$190,000	$135	50
2818 Bennett Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,273 (-3%)	8mo	$160,000	$126	47
2710 Susan St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,469 (+12%)	10mo	$210,000	$143	34
3333 Waverly Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,116 (-15%)	1mo	$110,000	$99	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $11,706
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $99,527
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79605

• Rents YoY: 32.1%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,381/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,611

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3533 Grand Ave Abilene, TX	5.0	2.0	1629	$2,200	$1.35	43d	1	0.15mi
2701 S 40th St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,995	$1.67	20d	1	0.27mi
4925 Greenslope Dr Unit C Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	13d	1	1.33mi
3134 Winterhawk Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,795	$1.55	7d	1	1.34mi
1934 Portland Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1108	$1,900	$1.71	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Welcome home to this super cute and charming 4 bedroom, 1.5-bath property perfectly situated on a desirable corner lot! This move-in ready home offers a warm and inviting feel from the moment you arrive, complete with lovely curb appeal that makes a lasting first impression. Inside, you’ll find spacious living areas with durable and stylish tile flooring throughout perfect for easy maintenance and everyday living. Step outside to enjoy the large backyard, offering endless possibilities for entertaining, gardening, or simply relaxing under the open sky. With its combination of charm, practicality, and location, this home is truly a must-see! Don’t miss your chance to own this adorable, well-maintained home ready for its next chapter.

2. 2026-05-03
   historical Active Option Contract 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Welcome home to this super cute and charming 4 bedroom, 1.5-bath property perfectly situated on a desirable corner lot! This move-in ready home offers a warm and inviting feel from the moment you arrive, complete with lovely curb appeal that makes a lasting first impression. Inside, you’ll find spacious living areas with durable and stylish tile flooring throughout perfect for easy maintenance and everyday living. Step outside to enjoy the large backyard, offering endless possibilities for entertaining, gardening, or simply relaxing under the open sky. With its combination of charm, practicality, and location, this home is truly a must-see! Don’t miss your chance to own this adorable, well-maintained home ready for its next chapter.

3. 2026-04-30
   status Active 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Welcome home to this super cute and charming 4 bedroom, 1.5-bath property perfectly situated on a desirable corner lot! This move-in ready home offers a warm and inviting feel from the moment you arrive, complete with lovely curb appeal that makes a lasting first impression. Inside, you’ll find spacious living areas with durable and stylish tile flooring throughout perfect for easy maintenance and everyday living. Step outside to enjoy the large backyard, offering endless possibilities for entertaining, gardening, or simply relaxing under the open sky. With its combination of charm, practicality, and location, this home is truly a must-see! Don’t miss your chance to own this adorable, well-maintained home ready for its next chapter.

4. 2026-04-24
   historical Active Option Contract 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Welcome home to this super cute and charming 4 bedroom, 1.5-bath property perfectly situated on a desirable corner lot! This move-in ready home offers a warm and inviting feel from the moment you arrive, complete with lovely curb appeal that makes a lasting first impression. Inside, you’ll find spacious living areas with durable and stylish tile flooring throughout perfect for easy maintenance and everyday living. Step outside to enjoy the large backyard, offering endless possibilities for entertaining, gardening, or simply relaxing under the open sky. With its combination of charm, practicality, and location, this home is truly a must-see! Don’t miss your chance to own this adorable, well-maintained home ready for its next chapter.

5. 2026-04-14
   listed $175,000 Active 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Welcome home to this super cute and charming 4 bedroom, 1.5-bath property perfectly situated on a desirable corner lot! This move-in ready home offers a warm and inviting feel from the moment you arrive, complete with lovely curb appeal that makes a lasting first impression. Inside, you’ll find spacious living areas with durable and stylish tile flooring throughout perfect for easy maintenance and everyday living. Step outside to enjoy the large backyard, offering endless possibilities for entertaining, gardening, or simply relaxing under the open sky. With its combination of charm, practicality, and location, this home is truly a must-see! Don’t miss your chance to own this adorable, well-maintained home ready for its next chapter.

6. 2010-02-17
   soldstatus
7. 2010-02-15
   soldstatus
8. 2010-02-12
   listed $89,900
9. 2010-02-12
   historical
10. 2009-01-13
    soldstatus
11. 2008-11-24
    historical
12. 2008-08-26
    listed $69,900
13. 2008-08-25
    soldstatus
14. 2006-06-30
    soldstatus
15. 2006-06-29
    soldstatus
16. 2006-06-07
    historical
17. 2006-03-06
    listed $61,500
18. 1987-11-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,381 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,381 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,381
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,090
• − Management: −$2,090
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $2,793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$670
• After-tax cash flow: $4,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,467
• Household income: $62,929
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1096.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.75%
• Current HPI: 201.2341
• Rent YoY: ▲ 32.08%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+184.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2010-02-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-02-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2010-02-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-02-12 Listed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2009-01-13 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2008-11-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2008-08-26 Listed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2008-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-06-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2006-06-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-03-06 Listed $61,500 NTREIS
• 1987-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,381 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.