8446 McGirts Village Ln · Jacksonville, FL 32210

$169,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · Townhouse public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2008 Est $193k · 12% under $114/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

[RECENT RENOVATIONS, MARCH 2026] [Seller is offering a W/D Pkg w/ an acceptable list price offer!] Welcome Home! Step into this move-in ready, turnkey END UNIT townhome - fresh, clean, updated w/ recent renovations & full of charm. Built in 2008, this spacious home offers 3 beds, 2.5 baths & a thoughtfully designed layout perfect for comfortable living. The main level features a convenient half bath, while upstairs you'll find 2 full bathrooms & generously sized bedrooms. Recent updates include fresh paint, brand-new carpeting throughout & new fixtures in both bathrooms. The kitchen comes equipped w/ Brand New SS Fridge, Range, Microwave & Dishwasher! Enjoy the ease of having your own driveway, and appreciate the prime location with easy access to I-295, making commutes a breeze. At this price, this one won't last long-schedule your showing today! [Seller offering a 1-0 interest rate buy down! Enjoy a lower interest rate your first year, making monthly payments more affordable. This... ...incentive is lender -funded and available when using the Seller's preferred lender - see flyer for more info!]

Key facts

• $114 HOA
• Built 2008
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished unit; Not a senior community
• HOA & community: Association present (First Coast Association Management); Monthly association fee of $114.75; Community playground

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Off-street parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Attached property; Current use: Residential, Single Family
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Smoke detector(s); No private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Pantry; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Split bedrooms; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry located on lower level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 443 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,445 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.21%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,430
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8503 McGirts Village Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,325 (-1%)	2mo	$184,900	$140	92
8649 McGirts Village Ln	0.09mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,334 (0%)	1mo	$175,017	$131	88
8516 McGirts Village Ln	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,325 (-1%)	13mo	$209,020	$158	82
8504 McGirts Village Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,325 (-1%)	14mo	$209,700	$158	82
8512 McGirts Village Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,325 (-1%)	14mo	$209,020	$158	81
8510 McGirts Village Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,325 (-1%)	15mo	$204,900	$155	80
8508 McGirts Village Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,325 (-1%)	19mo	$207,500	$157	77
8426 McGirts Village Ln	0.03mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,319 (-1%)	16mo	$162,500	$123	77
8420 Mcgirts Village Ln	0.04mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,319 (-1%)	22mo	$180,000	$136	71
5938 Brannon Ave	0.47mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,146 (-14%)	3mo	$100,000	$87	41
8312 Homeport Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,518 (+14%)	22mo	$220,000	$145	37
5200 Playpen Dr #1-1	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,157 (-13%)	15mo	$152,650	$132	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-34,370
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-42,207
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32210

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 443
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,548 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,818/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$114
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,659

Max offer price $154,445

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-39	+0% $-87	+5% $-136	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-210	-5% $-149	+0% $-87	+5% $-26	+10% $35
Rate	-1.0pp $-2	-0.5pp $-44	base $-87	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8460 McGirts Village Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,482	$1.12	8d	1	0.03mi
8443 McGirts Village Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,381	$1.04	8d	1	0.04mi
8419 McGirts Village Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,400	$1.06	3d	1	0.05mi
8402 McGirts Village Ln Unit 7E Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1319	$1,198	$0.91	8d	1	0.06mi
8485 McGirts Village Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,381	$1.04	25d	1	0.06mi
8493 McGirts Village Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,381	$1.04	22d	1	0.08mi
8515 Maple St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,499	$1.19	4d	1	0.25mi
8518 Maple St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,623	$1.11	17d	1	0.28mi
8341 Homeport Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1296	$1,800	$1.39	25d	1	0.36mi
8325 Homeport Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,575	$1.04	18d	1	0.36mi
8180 Metto Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1665	$1,859	$1.12	17d	1	0.36mi
8727 Osteen St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,546	$1.26	11d	1	0.36mi
8329 Homeport Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1281	$1,695	$1.32	15d	1	0.36mi
8148 Metto Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,576	$1.30	4d	1	0.39mi
5937 Camaro Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1052	$1,595	$1.52	25d	1	0.45mi
8121 Cheryl Ann Ln Unit Le Sabre Townhouse Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$1,950	$1.22	5d	1	0.49mi
8472 Fury Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1326	$1,780	$1.34	25d	1	0.52mi
8050 103rd St Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,575	$1.54	3d	11	0.52mi
5905 Renault Dr W Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,850	$1.21	25d	1	0.62mi
4782 Cinnamon Fern Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,915	$1.18	4d	1	0.67mi
7978 Renault Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,850	$1.71	25d	1	0.68mi
7948 Austin Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,775	$1.33	5d	1	0.69mi
7947 Renault Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,500	$1.17	18d	1	0.70mi
5150 Playpen Dr #4 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,200	$1.07	22d	1	0.74mi
5150 Playpen Dr Unit 2-1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,225	$1.06	5d	1	0.74mi
7901 Austin Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,815	$1.43	25d	1	0.74mi
4807 Playpen Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1204	$1,322	$1.10	4d	1	0.81mi
7880 Playschool Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,495	$1.12	17d	1	0.82mi
4706 Playpen Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1330	$1,321	$0.99	8d	1	0.82mi
7911 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1471	$1,740	$1.18	3d	1	0.83mi
5512 Village Pond Ct Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,787	$1.08	25d	1	0.83mi
7840 Playschool Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,398	$1.04	15d	1	0.85mi
7851 Playschool Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1508	$1,600	$1.06	25d	1	0.86mi
7887 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1153	$1,600	$1.39	25d	1	0.86mi
7875 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$1,650	$1.13	5d	1	0.87mi
4525 Glendas Meadow Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1526	$1,850	$1.21	5d	1	0.88mi
6109 Sage Willow Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,921	$1.09	22d	1	0.88mi
7800 Playschool Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,361	$1.02	15d	1	0.90mi
7796 Playschool Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,375	$1.03	25d	1	0.90mi
5332 Westchase Ct Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	15d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $114 · $1,368/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 679-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $169,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,818 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,818 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,818
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,486
• − Management: −$1,486
• − HOA: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$3,889
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$933
• After-tax cash flow: $-117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 65,729
• Household income: $61,050
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3605.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.81%
• Current HPI: 281.2688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.11%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+279.7% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $169,900 realMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $169,900 realMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $172,900 realMLS
• 2026-03-02 Rental Removed $1,451 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-01-31 Listed for Rent $1,451 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-01-13 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-01-13 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2026-01-10 Contingent — realMLS
• 2025-12-11 Relisted — realMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $162,500 realMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $167,000 realMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $169,900 realMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $172,900 realMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $174,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $175,900 realMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $179,700 realMLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $182,500 realMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $185,000 realMLS
• 2018-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $2,013,200 Public Records
• 2016-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $468,988 Public Records
• 2015-03-09 Sold (MLS) $44,750 realMLS
• 2015-02-13 Pending — realMLS
• 2015-01-13 Listed $44,750 realMLS

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,818 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.