9616 Lemon Drop Loop · Apollo Beach, FL 33573

$349,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,415 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 407 Days on market

Built 2020 4,840 sqft lot $13/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You will love living in the Columbia. Five bedroom two and a half bathrooms with the primary bedroom on the first floor and four upstairs with a large loft. Plenty of upgrades with ceramic tile thru out the living room, kitchen and dining area, ceiling fans in all bedrooms. New wood floors in the primary bedroom. Granite looking counters and 42-inch cabinets in the kitchen. Wider driveway with pavers on each side, fenced in backyard. Great neighborhood with tennis courts, basketball courts and community pool. Easy commute to Tampa or Bradenton/Sarasota.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Fenced in backyard
• 42 inch cabinets

Tags

• PRIMARY BEDROOM ON FIRST FLOOR
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• 42 INCH CABINETS
• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY POOL
• EASY COMMUTE TO TAMPA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#333 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 602 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,891/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1382% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 407 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $68k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $247k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,091 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 407 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.71%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-76,646
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-95,025
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33573

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 602
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,891 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$597 /mo · $7,166/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,273

Max offer price $295,665

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10018 Sage Creek Dr Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.0	2598	$2,611	$1.01	24d	1	0.25mi
9648 Sage Creek Dr Sun City Center, FL	6.0	3.0	3153	$3,000	$0.95	17d	1	0.31mi
9924 Victory Gallop Loop Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2535	$2,656	$1.05	21d	1	0.40mi
10040 Blackstone Creek CT Riverview, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1687	$2,995	$1.78	5d	20	0.49mi
10114 Point Given Ct Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,327	$1.08	24d	1	0.52mi
10125 Count Fleet Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	2529	$2,850	$1.13	12d	1	0.66mi
10279 Newminster Loop Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2576	$2,395	$0.93	24d	1	0.77mi
10220 Newminster Loop Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2483	$2,315	$0.93	14d	1	0.91mi
6610 Brighton Park Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	2567	$3,250	$1.27	5d	1	1.01mi
7006 Monarch Park Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1868	$2,425	$1.30	20d	1	1.10mi
6328 Lantern View Pl Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	3.5	2184	$2,600	$1.19	17d	1	1.28mi
5448 Silver Sun Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1992	$4,000	$2.01	24d	1	1.29mi
14435 Barley Field Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,231	$1.09	14d	1	1.30mi
14437 Barley Field Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	2280	$2,296	$1.01	24d	1	1.31mi
6214 Sea Amber Ln Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	2273	$3,200	$1.41	11d	1	1.32mi
10614 Shady Branch Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2482	$2,286	$0.92	14d	1	1.44mi
4529 Eternal Prince Dr Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.5	1914	$2,450	$1.28	20d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 407 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 406 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 405 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 404 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 402 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 401 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,000 Active 398 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,000 Active 397 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,000 Active 396 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $349,000 Active 393 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,000 Active 392 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,000 Active 391 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,000 Active 390 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,000 Active 389 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    status Active 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    You will love living in the Columbia. Five bedroom two and a half bathrooms with the primary bedroom on the first floor and four upstairs with a large loft. Plenty of upgrades with ceramic tile thru out the living room, kitchen and dining area, ceiling fans in all bedrooms. New wood floors in the primary bedroom. Granite looking counters and 42-inch cabinets in the kitchen. Wider driveway with pavers on each side, fenced in backyard. Great neighborhood with tennis courts, basketball courts and community pool. Easy commute to Tampa or Bradenton/Sarasota.

16. 2026-05-06
    historical 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    You will love living in the Columbia. Five bedroom two and a half bathrooms with the primary bedroom on the first floor and four upstairs with a large loft. Plenty of upgrades with ceramic tile thru out the living room, kitchen and dining area, ceiling fans in all bedrooms. New wood floors in the primary bedroom. Granite looking counters and 42-inch cabinets in the kitchen. Wider driveway with pavers on each side, fenced in backyard. Great neighborhood with tennis courts, basketball courts and community pool. Easy commute to Tampa or Bradenton/Sarasota.

17. 2026-04-03
    price $360,000 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    You will love living in the Columbia. Five bedroom two and a half bathrooms with the primary bedroom on the first floor and four upstairs with a large loft. Plenty of upgrades with ceramic tile thru out the living room, kitchen and dining area, ceiling fans in all bedrooms. New wood floors in the primary bedroom. Granite looking counters and 42-inch cabinets in the kitchen. Wider driveway with pavers on each side, fenced in backyard. Great neighborhood with tennis courts, basketball courts and community pool. Easy commute to Tampa or Bradenton/Sarasota.

18. 2026-01-18
    price $385,000 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    You will love living in the Columbia. Five bedroom two and a half bathrooms with the primary bedroom on the first floor and four upstairs with a large loft. Plenty of upgrades with ceramic tile thru out the living room, kitchen and dining area, ceiling fans in all bedrooms. New wood floors in the primary bedroom. Granite looking counters and 42-inch cabinets in the kitchen. Wider driveway with pavers on each side, fenced in backyard. Great neighborhood with tennis courts, basketball courts and community pool. Easy commute to Tampa or Bradenton/Sarasota.

19. 2025-10-21
    price $399,000 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    You will love living in the Columbia. Five bedroom two and a half bathrooms with the primary bedroom on the first floor and four upstairs with a large loft. Plenty of upgrades with ceramic tile thru out the living room, kitchen and dining area, ceiling fans in all bedrooms. New wood floors in the primary bedroom. Granite looking counters and 42-inch cabinets in the kitchen. Wider driveway with pavers on each side, fenced in backyard. Great neighborhood with tennis courts, basketball courts and community pool. Easy commute to Tampa or Bradenton/Sarasota.

20. 2025-06-21
    price $410,000 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    You will love living in the Columbia. Five bedroom two and a half bathrooms with the primary bedroom on the first floor and four upstairs with a large loft. Plenty of upgrades with ceramic tile thru out the living room, kitchen and dining area, ceiling fans in all bedrooms. New wood floors in the primary bedroom. Granite looking counters and 42-inch cabinets in the kitchen. Wider driveway with pavers on each side, fenced in backyard. Great neighborhood with tennis courts, basketball courts and community pool. Easy commute to Tampa or Bradenton/Sarasota.

21. 2025-05-06
    listed $417,000 Active 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    You will love living in the Columbia. Five bedroom two and a half bathrooms with the primary bedroom on the first floor and four upstairs with a large loft. Plenty of upgrades with ceramic tile thru out the living room, kitchen and dining area, ceiling fans in all bedrooms. New wood floors in the primary bedroom. Granite looking counters and 42-inch cabinets in the kitchen. Wider driveway with pavers on each side, fenced in backyard. Great neighborhood with tennis courts, basketball courts and community pool. Easy commute to Tampa or Bradenton/Sarasota.

22. 2020-03-30
    soldstatus $247,090 Sold 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Under Construction. You'll love living at the Columbia. This 2,389 square foot, five bedroom, two and a half bathroom home provides ample living space, as well as convenience. The kitchen is a foodie's dream, with a center island, full-size pantry and GE® appliances. The downstairs master suite provides complete privacy and space, with a huge walk-in closet as well as his and hers sinks. The second floor has four additional bedrooms and a loft, perfect for accommodating and entertaining overnight guests. The Columbia floor plan is a part of our new homes for sale in Ruskin, stop by our Welcome Home Center and find out more. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

23. 2020-02-07
    status Pending 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Under Construction. You'll love living at the Columbia. This 2,389 square foot, five bedroom, two and a half bathroom home provides ample living space, as well as convenience. The kitchen is a foodie's dream, with a center island, full-size pantry and GE® appliances. The downstairs master suite provides complete privacy and space, with a huge walk-in closet as well as his and hers sinks. The second floor has four additional bedrooms and a loft, perfect for accommodating and entertaining overnight guests. The Columbia floor plan is a part of our new homes for sale in Ruskin, stop by our Welcome Home Center and find out more. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

24. 2020-01-16
    listed $247,090 Active 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Under Construction. You'll love living at the Columbia. This 2,389 square foot, five bedroom, two and a half bathroom home provides ample living space, as well as convenience. The kitchen is a foodie's dream, with a center island, full-size pantry and GE® appliances. The downstairs master suite provides complete privacy and space, with a huge walk-in closet as well as his and hers sinks. The second floor has four additional bedrooms and a loft, perfect for accommodating and entertaining overnight guests. The Columbia floor plan is a part of our new homes for sale in Ruskin, stop by our Welcome Home Center and find out more. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

25. 2020-01-16
    historical

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Under Construction. You'll love living at the Columbia. This 2,389 square foot, five bedroom, two and a half bathroom home provides ample living space, as well as convenience. The kitchen is a foodie's dream, with a center island, full-size pantry and GE® appliances. The downstairs master suite provides complete privacy and space, with a huge walk-in closet as well as his and hers sinks. The second floor has four additional bedrooms and a loft, perfect for accommodating and entertaining overnight guests. The Columbia floor plan is a part of our new homes for sale in Ruskin, stop by our Welcome Home Center and find out more. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

26. 2020-01-14
    price $247,090
27. 2020-01-03
    listed $280,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,166 · $597/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,166 · $597/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$7,166
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,775
• − Management: −$2,775
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$9,628
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,311
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Apollo Beach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #5784

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apollo Beach, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 26,495
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,362
• Household income: $72,834
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1382.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.27%
• Current HPI: 272.9767
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+28.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $360,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $385,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-21 Price Changed $410,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-06 Listed $417,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-30 Sold (MLS) $247,090 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-16 Listed $247,090 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-14 Price Changed $247,090 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-03 Listed $280,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,166 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.