1291 New York 23 · Copake Lake, NY 12521

$325,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1843 1.94 ac lot $244/sqft · 45% below area Est $595k · 45% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Some photos have been AI rendered * Location-Convenience-Opportunity Welcome to 1291 route 23, a rare live/work opportunity with character, creativity, and presence. Set on 1.94 acres along US-23 this mixed-use property offers a 2 bedroom; 1 bathroom home ready for thoughtful updates and transformation, with the one-of-a-kind commercial space, the beloved ''Purple Barn''. More than just structures, the barn is a reflection of vision and passion, offering the perfect setting for a boutique studio, or inspired business concept. The home invites renovation and personalization, giving its next owner the opportunity to shape the living space to match the energy and potential of the property as a whole. With strong road visibility and a memorable identity, this is a place with strong road frontage, prime location potential between Hudson, and The Berkshires, and vast potential. * * This is an Estate, being sold AS-IS * * The home already has a wonderful footprint for comfortable living, and with a little TLC it can be curated into something truly special once again.

Key facts

• Mixed use property
• Commercial space
• 1.94 acre lot

Tags

• MIXED USE PROPERTY
• COMMERCIAL SPACE
• STRONG ROAD VISIBILITY
• PRIME LOCATION POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $306k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.4% in Copake Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#841 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1843 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $305,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1843 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.08%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $595,452
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -45.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $259,436
• Equity at exit: $292,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.68×
• Total profit: $698,965
• Equity at exit: $631,404

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12521

• Home prices YoY: 23.4%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,199 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,186/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$882
• Net cashflow: $1,295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,559

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $325,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $325,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $325,000 1093-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1093 chars)

    * Some photos have been AI rendered * Location-Convenience-Opportunity Welcome to 1291 route 23, a rare live/work opportunity with character, creativity, and presence. Set on 1.94 acres along US-23 this mixed-use property offers a 2 bedroom; 1 bathroom home ready for thoughtful updates and transformation, with the one-of-a-kind commercial space, the beloved ''Purple Barn''. More than just structures, the barn is a reflection of vision and passion, offering the perfect setting for a boutique studio, or inspired business concept. The home invites renovation and personalization, giving its next owner the opportunity to shape the living space to match the energy and potential of the property as a whole. With strong road visibility and a memorable identity, this is a place with strong road frontage, prime location potential between Hudson, and The Berkshires, and vast potential. * * This is an Estate, being sold AS-IS * * The home already has a wonderful footprint for comfortable living, and with a little TLC it can be curated into something truly special once again.

18. 2026-03-24
    listed $399,000 Active 1093-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1093 chars)

    * Some photos have been AI rendered * Location-Convenience-Opportunity Welcome to 1291 route 23, a rare live/work opportunity with character, creativity, and presence. Set on 1.94 acres along US-23 this mixed-use property offers a 2 bedroom; 1 bathroom home ready for thoughtful updates and transformation, with the one-of-a-kind commercial space, the beloved ''Purple Barn''. More than just structures, the barn is a reflection of vision and passion, offering the perfect setting for a boutique studio, or inspired business concept. The home invites renovation and personalization, giving its next owner the opportunity to shape the living space to match the energy and potential of the property as a whole. With strong road visibility and a memorable identity, this is a place with strong road frontage, prime location potential between Hudson, and The Berkshires, and vast potential. * * This is an Estate, being sold AS-IS * * The home already has a wonderful footprint for comfortable living, and with a little TLC it can be curated into something truly special once again.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,186 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,839 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,653/yr (+$138/mo · 75.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,186
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,031
• − Management: −$4,031
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $10,857
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,606
• After-tax cash flow: $12,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taconic Hills Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628620
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $57,329
• Composite: 45.16/100
• National rank: #2676
• State rank: #335 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copake Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #841
• US rank: #16329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,874

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.58%
• Current HPI: 441.0272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-18.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $325,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $399,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,186 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.