4419 W Toledo Ct S · Broken Arrow, OK 74012

$290,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,413 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1992 8,280 sqft lot Est $393k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BROKEN ARROW CHARMER! BRAND NEW ROOF (2026)!! Beautifully updated home with an incredible, flexible floor plan in a desirable neighborhood! Dramatic two-story living room with soaring ceilings and a graceful curved staircase offers abundant natural light and an impressive space for entertaining! Spacious island kitchen features extensive cabinetry, ample counter space, a corner sink and excellent flow for everyday living and gatherings alike. Fantastic layout boasts TWO private primary suites — one downstairs with a relaxing whirlpool tub and one upstairs featuring cathedral ceilings and TWO walk-in closets! Versatile fourth bedroom opens to the living room and could make an amazing g

Key facts

• Flexible floor plan
• Cathedral ceilings
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• TWO PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITES
• WHIRLPOOL TUB
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee due annually; Community gutters; Sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Owned security system; No safety shelter; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2 stories; Faces north; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood frame construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Built in public records
• Exterior features: Landscaping; Rain gutters; Full privacy fencing; Patio; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Plumbed for ice maker; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hot tub / spa; Laminate counters; Gas range connection; Gas oven connection; Aluminum window frames; Insulated windows; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-652/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Broken Arrow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#7 in OK, #2,691 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Union (urban): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #160 of 270 in OK (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Andersen Es (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 388 students, 0% FRL); Union 6Th-7Th Grade Ctr (math 18% / reading 17%, grade F, #186 of 345 statewide, top 55%, 2,182 students, 0% FRL); Union Hs (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #139 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 3,355 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 51% district-wide (51 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 445 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,818 units permitted in Tulsa County in 2024 (518 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulsa County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $117k; list at $290k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,123 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $393,319
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3506 W Atlanta St	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,186 (-9%)	5mo	$356,500	$163	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-50,655
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-49,394
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74012

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 445
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,261 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,389/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,330

Max offer price $280,403

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $28	+0% $-54	+5% $-136	+10% $-218
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-144	+0% $-54	+5% $35	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $19	base $-54	+0.5pp $-129	+1.0pp $-206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3002 W Washington Pl Broken Arrow, OK	4.0	2.0	2211	$1,700	$0.77	5d	1	0.93mi
2630 W Washington Pl Broken Arrow, OK	4.0	2.0	1867	$1,975	$1.06	25d	1	1.20mi
2614 S Gardenia Ave Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.5	2397	$1,950	$0.81	25d	1	1.20mi
3712 S Orange Cir Broken Arrow, OK	4.0	3.0	2782	$3,500	$1.26	12d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $290,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-03
   listed $290,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,389 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,610 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$221/yr (+$18/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$2,389
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,727
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,374
• After-tax cash flow: $722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union
• NCES district ID: 4030600
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $52,744
• Composite: 18.18/100
• National rank: #8962
• State rank: #160 of 270 in OK

Livability — Broken Arrow

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #2691

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Broken Arrow, OK
• County: Tulsa County · 640,811 people
• City population: 144,172
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• Population (ZIP): 65,060
• Household income: $81,456
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1378.0

Population outlook (Tulsa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 723,846 people
• By 2030: 766,033 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 851,386 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 938,389 · +29.6%
• By 2075: 1,166,011 · +61.1%
• By 2100: 1,350,277 · +86.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Asian 5% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulsa

• 2024 margin: R (+15.2) · D 41.3% · R 56.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.2pp toward D · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+22.9 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.42%
• Current HPI: 214.1279
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+1605.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $290,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 1998-01-17 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 1997-10-17 Listed $124,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 1997-10-16 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 1997-04-16 Listed $124,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 1995-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-19 Listed $119,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 1992-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1992-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,389 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.