11 Jackson St · Port Henry, NY 12974

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,876 sqft · Manufactured public records · 412 Days on market

Built 1991 1.65 ac lot Est $163k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Set on 1.65 acres of mostly cleared land, this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers privacy, space, and comfort in a peaceful setting. The expansive lot provides room to enjoy the outdoors while maintaining an open, manageable feel — perfect for gardening, pets, or simply relaxing in your own private retreat. Inside, the home features a spacious and functional layout designed for everyday living and flexibility. The large kitchen offers abundant workspace and storage, making it ideal for cooking, entertaining, or gathering with family and friends. Multiple living areas include both a comfortable living room and a separate den, giving you options for relaxation, media sp

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Heat-efficient home
• Dedicated office

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• HEAT-EFFICIENT HOME
• GENEROUS LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential / Manufactured Home; Lot size approximately 1.65 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking area; Gravel parking; No garage
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (100 amp service)
• Home design: Manufactured house (manufactured home / double wide); One story; Updated / remodeled; Slab foundation; Asbestos shingle roof; Entry facing information not provided
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front porch; Rear porch; Back yard; Cleared, gently sloping, open and private lot; Asphalt road access; Has a view; Fuel tank(s) on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Kerosene heating option; No central cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.7% in Port Henry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in NY, #3,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Moriah Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #445 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moriah Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 385 students, 47% FRL); Moriah Junior-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 316 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 412 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $160k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 412 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.48%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,212
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Waldo Pl	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-8%)	20mo	$149,000	$87	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $53,954
• Equity at exit: $94,981

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $150,035
• Equity at exit: $167,654

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12974

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,573 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,603/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,315

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $250	+0% $204	+5% $159	+10% $114
Rent	-10% $80	-5% $142	+0% $204	+5% $266	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $285	-0.5pp $245	base $204	+0.5pp $163	+1.0pp $121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-09
   status Active
3. 2026-02-16
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-07
   status Active
5. 2026-01-07
   price $159,900
6. 2026-01-01
   historical
7. 2025-02-13
   listed $162,900 Active
8. 2005-01-13
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,603 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,153 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$550/yr (+$46/mo · 34.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,603
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,511
• − Management: −$1,511
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$36
• After-tax cash flow: $2,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moriah Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619830
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,940
• Composite: 39.55/100
• National rank: #3937
• State rank: #445 of 590 in NY

Livability — Port Henry

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #3576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Henry, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,545

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 20% Romanian 12% Italian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 342.6175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+146.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — ACVMLS
• 2026-02-16 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2026-01-07 Relisted — ACVMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $159,900 ACVMLS
• 2026-01-01 Delisted — ACVMLS
• 2025-02-13 Listed $162,900 ACVMLS
• 2005-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,603 · -41.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.