450 Plum Hollow Blvd · Jones Mills, AR 71913

$175,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1974 0.83 ac lot Est $272k · 36% under $108/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Call this 3 bd/2ba home in the evolving Diamond Head yours! Driving in the beautiful 2300 acre gated community you’re greeted by a guard, 24 hr on site police protection, 18 hole/72 PGA Golf Course, Olympic pool, and Lake access just to name a few. This home comes with the adjacent corner lot, surrounded by woods giving you a country living feel. Featuring an open kitchen/living/dining concept with updated quartz counters, stainless appliances, and breakfast bar bringing all your kitchen dreams to life! New roof Dec. 2023 New HVAC 2024

Key facts

• Gated community
• Olympic pool
• Adjacent corner lot

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• 18 HOLE PGA GOLF COURSE
• OLYMPIC POOL
• LAKE ACCESS
• ADJACENT CORNER LOT
• SURROUNDED BY WOODS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee; Association covers grounds, private roads, and entrance security; Community amenities include swimming pools, tennis courts, playground, clubhouse, party room, picnic area, golf course, fitness/bike trail, and manager office

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 1 car
• Security: Video surveillance; Gated community amenities (gated entrance, entrance security); On-site manager office
• Utilities: Public water; Septic; Municipal electric (Entergy); Propane/Butane gas; Insulated windows and doors; Generator
• Home design: Metal/vinyl siding
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Guttering; Video surveillance; Paved road access; Sloped, corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Electric range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Pantry; Ice maker connection
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Smoke detectors; Security system; Window treatments; Walk-in closet(s); Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area / connections; Workshop/Craft room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $514 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Malvern School District (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #207 of 238 in AR (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 986 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4 units permitted in Hot Spring County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,159/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 1442% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hot Spring County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $175k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.60%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,448
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Diamondhead Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,581 (-0%)	1mo	$300,000	$190	64
106 Stonebriar Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-4%)	4mo	$304,500	$200	61
120 Stonebriar	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+4%)	7mo	$299,900	$182	53
109 Diamondhead Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+6%)	7mo	$289,900	$173	50
115 Morningside Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,530 (-3%)	17mo	$187,000	$122	48
136 Arlington Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (+10%)	9mo	$255,000	$147	43
121 Stonebriar Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-3%)	22mo	$259,000	$169	41
612 Independence Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,758 (+11%)	1mo	$202,000	$115	40
238 Springbrook	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,449 (-8%)	22mo	$249,000	$172	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $12,135
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $86,780
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,159 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,108/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,508

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
167 Pebble Beach Pl Unit 1B Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	2.5	1550	$3,000	$1.94	44d	1	1.29mi
167 Pebble Beach Pl Unit 1C Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	2.5	1550	$3,000	$1.94	44d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    price $175,000

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Call this 3 bd/2ba home in the evolving Diamond Head yours! Driving in the beautiful 2300 acre gated community you’re greeted by a guard, 24 hr on site police protection, 18 hole/72 PGA Golf Course, Olympic pool, and Lake access just to name a few. This home comes with the adjacent corner lot, surrounded by woods giving you a country living feel. Featuring an open kitchen/living/dining concept with updated quartz counters, stainless appliances, and breakfast bar bringing all your kitchen dreams to life! New roof Dec. 2023 New HVAC 2024

17. 2026-04-24
    price $175,000 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Call this 3 bd/2ba home in the evolving Diamond Head yours! Driving in the beautiful 2300 acre gated community you’re greeted by a guard, 24 hr on site police protection, 18 hole/72 PGA Golf Course, Olympic pool, and Lake access just to name a few. This home comes with the adjacent corner lot, surrounded by woods giving you a country living feel. Featuring an open kitchen/living/dining concept with updated quartz counters, stainless appliances, and breakfast bar bringing all your kitchen dreams to life! New roof Dec. 2023 New HVAC 2024

18. 2026-03-23
    price $180,000

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Call this 3 bd/2ba home in the evolving Diamond Head yours! Driving in the beautiful 2300 acre gated community you’re greeted by a guard, 24 hr on site police protection, 18 hole/72 PGA Golf Course, Olympic pool, and Lake access just to name a few. This home comes with the adjacent corner lot, surrounded by woods giving you a country living feel. Featuring an open kitchen/living/dining concept with updated quartz counters, stainless appliances, and breakfast bar bringing all your kitchen dreams to life! New roof Dec. 2023 New HVAC 2024

19. 2026-03-23
    price $180,000 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Call this 3 bd/2ba home in the evolving Diamond Head yours! Driving in the beautiful 2300 acre gated community you’re greeted by a guard, 24 hr on site police protection, 18 hole/72 PGA Golf Course, Olympic pool, and Lake access just to name a few. This home comes with the adjacent corner lot, surrounded by woods giving you a country living feel. Featuring an open kitchen/living/dining concept with updated quartz counters, stainless appliances, and breakfast bar bringing all your kitchen dreams to life! New roof Dec. 2023 New HVAC 2024

20. 2026-02-20
    listed $200,000 Active 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Call this 3 bd/2ba home in the evolving Diamond Head yours! Driving in the beautiful 2300 acre gated community you’re greeted by a guard, 24 hr on site police protection, 18 hole/72 PGA Golf Course, Olympic pool, and Lake access just to name a few. This home comes with the adjacent corner lot, surrounded by woods giving you a country living feel. Featuring an open kitchen/living/dining concept with updated quartz counters, stainless appliances, and breakfast bar bringing all your kitchen dreams to life! New roof Dec. 2023 New HVAC 2024

21. 2026-02-17
    listed $200,000 New Listing
22. 2025-01-01
    historical
23. 2024-10-20
    price $210,000
24. 2024-10-19
    price $210,000
25. 2024-08-22
    price $225,000
26. 2024-08-22
    price $225,000
27. 2024-08-18
    status Back on Market
28. 2024-04-18
    historical Take Backups
29. 2024-02-10
    listed $249,000 New Listing
30. 2023-05-01
    historical
31. 2023-03-30
    status Back on Market
32. 2023-03-14
    historical Take Backups
33. 2022-10-20
    listed $199,000 New Listing
34. 2022-10-13
    historical
35. 2022-09-21
    price $220,000
36. 2022-09-13
    listed $225,000 New Listing
37. 2019-11-20
    historical
38. 2019-11-03
    price $134,900
39. 2019-08-13
    price $139,900
40. 2019-07-25
    listed $150,000 New Listing
41. 1994-05-10
    soldstatus $55,000
42. 1994-05-10
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,108 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$12/yr (+$1/mo · 1.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,108
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,072
• − Management: −$2,072
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $3,588
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$861
• After-tax cash flow: $5,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malvern School District
• NCES district ID: 0509240
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $35,370
• Composite: 17.76/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #207 of 238 in AR

Livability — Jones Mills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Hot Spring County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,464 people
• By 2030: 34,659 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 34,486 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 33,419 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 28,702 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 21,415 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hot Spring

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.9% · R 75.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+48.7 2016: R+42.5 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+218.2% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $175,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $175,000 HSBOR
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $180,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $180,000 HSBOR
• 2026-02-20 Listed $200,000 HSBOR
• 2026-02-17 Listed $200,000 CARMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-10-20 Price Changed $210,000 CARMLS
• 2024-10-19 Price Changed $210,000 HSBOR
• 2024-08-22 Price Changed $225,000 CARMLS
• 2024-08-22 Price Changed $225,000 HSBOR
• 2024-08-18 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2024-04-18 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2024-02-10 Listed $249,000 CARMLS
• 2023-05-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2023-03-30 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2023-03-14 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2022-10-20 Listed $199,000 CARMLS
• 2022-10-13 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2022-09-21 Price Changed $220,000 CARMLS
• 2022-09-13 Listed $225,000 CARMLS
• 2019-11-20 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2019-11-03 Price Changed $134,900 CARMLS
• 2019-08-13 Price Changed $139,900 CARMLS
• 2019-07-25 Listed $150,000 CARMLS
• 1994-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1994-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,108 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.