3790 Faircrest Dr · Fairview, PA 16415

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1982 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious one story living in Fairview! A 4 bedroom and 2 full bath. The fourth bedroom is semi finished in need of your decorative touch. Full basement is ready to be finished for the perfect game room. Stamped concrete patio on large lot and shed. Washer and dryer included.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Updated home
• Functional layout

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• LARGE BACKYARD
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• RECENT IMPROVEMENTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-1; Lot approximately 0.34 acres (120 x 135)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Total of 4 parking spaces; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Built with asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Asphalt roof; Subdivision: Weislogel

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating with natural gas; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement; 8 total rooms; Carpet, laminate and tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.0% in Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#123 in PA, #963 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fairview SD (rural): math 54% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #42 of 539 in PA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $279,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.33%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,880
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7743 Maple St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,134 (+9%)	6mo	$230,000	$203	75
3585 Sheramy Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+14%)	3mo	$285,000	$240	68
7289 Merritt Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,012 (-3%)	1mo	$172,000	$170	62
7651 Wellman Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+10%)	10mo	$260,000	$227	62
3515 Birchard Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	925 (-11%)	2mo	$150,000	$162	51
3653 Sheramy Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,148 (+10%)	24mo	$195,000	$170	50
7422 Chestnut St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,096 (+5%)	20mo	$185,000	$169	47
7383 Chestnut St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	938 (-10%)	10mo	$205,000	$219	45
7270 Curtze Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	988 (-5%)	19mo	$170,000	$172	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-19,007
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $17,382
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16415

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,372/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,361

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $572	-5% $493	+0% $414	+5% $334	+10% $255
Rent	-10% $186	-5% $300	+0% $414	+5% $528	+10% $642
Rate	-1.0pp $555	-0.5pp $485	base $414	+0.5pp $341	+1.0pp $267

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5885 Bluestone Dr Fairview, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1445	$2,885	$2.00	44d	51	1.24mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-16
   listed $279,900 Active
3. 2023-10-30
   soldstatus $215,000
4. 2023-10-27
   soldstatus $215,000 Closed 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   Spacious one story living in Fairview! A 4 bedroom and 2 full bath. The fourth bedroom is semi finished in need of your decorative touch. Full basement is ready to be finished for the perfect game room. Stamped concrete patio on large lot and shed. Washer and dryer included.

5. 2023-09-15
   status Pending 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   Spacious one story living in Fairview! A 4 bedroom and 2 full bath. The fourth bedroom is semi finished in need of your decorative touch. Full basement is ready to be finished for the perfect game room. Stamped concrete patio on large lot and shed. Washer and dryer included.

6. 2023-09-09
   listed $220,000 Active 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   Spacious one story living in Fairview! A 4 bedroom and 2 full bath. The fourth bedroom is semi finished in need of your decorative touch. Full basement is ready to be finished for the perfect game room. Stamped concrete patio on large lot and shed. Washer and dryer included.

7. 2002-04-23
   soldstatus $109,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,372 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,897 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: +$525/yr (+$44/mo · 15.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$3,372
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,770
• − Management: −$2,770
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable income: $488
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$117
• After-tax cash flow: $4,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairview SD
• NCES district ID: 4209570
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $74,956
• Composite: 56.7/100
• National rank: #1130
• State rank: #42 of 539 in PA

Livability — Fairview

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairview, PA
• Population (ZIP): 10,251

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.57%
• Current HPI: 256.1235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+156.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-05-16 Listed $279,900 GEBOR
• 2023-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-27 Sold (MLS) $215,000 GEBOR
• 2023-09-15 Pending — GEBOR
• 2023-09-09 Listed $220,000 GEBOR
• 2002-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,372 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.