114 Shell Falls Dr · Apollo Beach, FL 33572

$245,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · Other public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2015

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What an Amazing Opportunity!! Immaculately Kept villa in the heart of Apollo Beach. This Premier Del Webb (55+) maintenance free community has everything you need. Enjoy Daily activities in the community clubhouse or take a refreshing dip in one of the two pools. On cooler nights relax in the hot tub or take an evening stroll and watch the sunset. 24 hour guarded gate. The inside of the home is open and airy, offering two bedrooms and an office. Kitchen offers tile backsplash, crown-molded cabinetry, and great size pantry. This popular split floor plan offers owners suite in the back of the home with a large walk-in closet and private bath with double sinks. The Spare bedroom and den/office are both spacious, bright and airy. Home has hurricane shutters that were recently serviced and AC and water heater are only a few years old. This home is worry free which will allow you plenty of free time to relax. Enjoy the Florida lifestyle relaxing out on your private screened in lanai overlooking the pond. Luxury community features are walking distance, state of the art gym, tennis courts, pickle ball, bocce ball, putting green, and the lavish 1400 square foot clubhouse. Come make this home yours today.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Community clubhouse
• 24 hour guarded gate

Tags

• MAINTENANCE FREE COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• TWO POOLS
• HOT TUB
• 24 HOUR GUARDED GATE
• TILE BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-692/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#333 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Apollo Beach Elementary School (math 73% / reading 65%, grade A-, #399 of 2,144 statewide, top 19%, 561 students, 40% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 769 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,598 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.15%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-42,419
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-37,736
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33572

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 769
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,266 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$394 /mo · $4,733/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,339

Max offer price $234,816

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $12	+0% $-58	+5% $-127	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-147	+0% $-58	+5% $32	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $66	-0.5pp $5	base $-58	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
206 Shell Falls Dr Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1461	$2,200	$1.51	26d	1	0.07mi
5646 Sunset Falls Dr Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1523	$2,250	$1.48	12d	1	0.27mi
310 Mangrove Shade Cir Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,150	$1.29	26d	1	0.34mi
299 Mangrove Shade Cir Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,150	$1.22	26d	1	0.34mi
299 Mangrove Shade Cir Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1802	$2,150	$1.19	12d	1	0.34mi
529 Red Mangrove Ln Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$2,200	$2.08	19d	1	0.37mi
5409 Sunset Falls Dr Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1393	$2,200	$1.58	26d	1	0.40mi
6033 Flora Ter Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,895	$1.33	26d	1	0.58mi
527 Fox Run Trl Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$2,400	$2.73	0d	1	0.60mi
229 Lookout Dr Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$2,099	$1.63	6d	1	0.77mi
206 Lookout Dr Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$2,025	$1.58	0d	1	0.88mi
128 Lookout Dr Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1638	$2,700	$1.65	12d	1	0.97mi
6501 Manila Palm Way Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,350	$1.42	26d	1	1.08mi
6516 Quiet Pool Ct Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,855	$1.11	26d	1	1.11mi
6222 Camino Dr Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1617	$2,400	$1.48	6d	1	1.15mi
349 Apollo Beach Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	583	$1,700	$2.92	5d	12	1.17mi
6144 Paseo Al Mar Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,164	$2.00	0d	27	1.24mi
6322 Camino Dr Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1677	$2,400	$1.43	16d	1	1.26mi
917 Apollo Beach Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1120	$2,361	$2.11	1d	4	1.27mi
910 Chipaway Dr Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1791	$5,600	$3.13	26d	1	1.30mi
960 Apollo Beach Blvd #102 Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1002	$1,900	$1.90	26d	1	1.36mi
6350 Union Station Ct Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$2,364	$2.12	0d	43	1.38mi
1008 Apollo Beach Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$2,325	$2.07	6d	2	1.39mi
6305 Cottonwood Ln Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1636	$4,200	$2.57	26d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $245,000 Active
17. 2018-08-02
    soldstatus $225,000
18. 2018-07-26
    soldstatus $225,000 Sold 1215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1215 chars)

    What an Amazing Opportunity!! Immaculately Kept villa in the heart of Apollo Beach. This Premier Del Webb (55+) maintenance free community has everything you need. Enjoy Daily activities in the community clubhouse or take a refreshing dip in one of the two pools. On cooler nights relax in the hot tub or take an evening stroll and watch the sunset. 24 hour guarded gate. The inside of the home is open and airy, offering two bedrooms and an office. Kitchen offers tile backsplash, crown-molded cabinetry, and great size pantry. This popular split floor plan offers owners suite in the back of the home with a large walk-in closet and private bath with double sinks. The Spare bedroom and den/office are both spacious, bright and airy. Home has hurricane shutters that were recently serviced and AC and water heater are only a few years old. This home is worry free which will allow you plenty of free time to relax. Enjoy the Florida lifestyle relaxing out on your private screened in lanai overlooking the pond. Luxury community features are walking distance, state of the art gym, tennis courts, pickle ball, bocce ball, putting green, and the lavish 1400 square foot clubhouse. Come make this home yours today.

19. 2018-06-29
    status Pending 1215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1215 chars)

    What an Amazing Opportunity!! Immaculately Kept villa in the heart of Apollo Beach. This Premier Del Webb (55+) maintenance free community has everything you need. Enjoy Daily activities in the community clubhouse or take a refreshing dip in one of the two pools. On cooler nights relax in the hot tub or take an evening stroll and watch the sunset. 24 hour guarded gate. The inside of the home is open and airy, offering two bedrooms and an office. Kitchen offers tile backsplash, crown-molded cabinetry, and great size pantry. This popular split floor plan offers owners suite in the back of the home with a large walk-in closet and private bath with double sinks. The Spare bedroom and den/office are both spacious, bright and airy. Home has hurricane shutters that were recently serviced and AC and water heater are only a few years old. This home is worry free which will allow you plenty of free time to relax. Enjoy the Florida lifestyle relaxing out on your private screened in lanai overlooking the pond. Luxury community features are walking distance, state of the art gym, tennis courts, pickle ball, bocce ball, putting green, and the lavish 1400 square foot clubhouse. Come make this home yours today.

20. 2018-06-22
    price $225,000 1215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1215 chars)

    What an Amazing Opportunity!! Immaculately Kept villa in the heart of Apollo Beach. This Premier Del Webb (55+) maintenance free community has everything you need. Enjoy Daily activities in the community clubhouse or take a refreshing dip in one of the two pools. On cooler nights relax in the hot tub or take an evening stroll and watch the sunset. 24 hour guarded gate. The inside of the home is open and airy, offering two bedrooms and an office. Kitchen offers tile backsplash, crown-molded cabinetry, and great size pantry. This popular split floor plan offers owners suite in the back of the home with a large walk-in closet and private bath with double sinks. The Spare bedroom and den/office are both spacious, bright and airy. Home has hurricane shutters that were recently serviced and AC and water heater are only a few years old. This home is worry free which will allow you plenty of free time to relax. Enjoy the Florida lifestyle relaxing out on your private screened in lanai overlooking the pond. Luxury community features are walking distance, state of the art gym, tennis courts, pickle ball, bocce ball, putting green, and the lavish 1400 square foot clubhouse. Come make this home yours today.

21. 2018-05-02
    listed $230,000 Active 1215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1215 chars)

    What an Amazing Opportunity!! Immaculately Kept villa in the heart of Apollo Beach. This Premier Del Webb (55+) maintenance free community has everything you need. Enjoy Daily activities in the community clubhouse or take a refreshing dip in one of the two pools. On cooler nights relax in the hot tub or take an evening stroll and watch the sunset. 24 hour guarded gate. The inside of the home is open and airy, offering two bedrooms and an office. Kitchen offers tile backsplash, crown-molded cabinetry, and great size pantry. This popular split floor plan offers owners suite in the back of the home with a large walk-in closet and private bath with double sinks. The Spare bedroom and den/office are both spacious, bright and airy. Home has hurricane shutters that were recently serviced and AC and water heater are only a few years old. This home is worry free which will allow you plenty of free time to relax. Enjoy the Florida lifestyle relaxing out on your private screened in lanai overlooking the pond. Luxury community features are walking distance, state of the art gym, tennis courts, pickle ball, bocce ball, putting green, and the lavish 1400 square foot clubhouse. Come make this home yours today.

22. 2003-06-18
    soldstatus $4,059,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,733 · $394/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,733 · $394/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$4,733
• − Insurance: −$2,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,175
• − Management: −$2,175
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,144
• After-tax cash flow: $452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Apollo Beach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #5784

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apollo Beach, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 26,495
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,495
• Household income: $122,130
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 381.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -393.97%
• Current HPI: 300.9596
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.36%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $245,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-26 Sold (MLS) $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-22 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-02 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $4,059,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,733 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.