16401 San Pablo Ave #240 · Montalvin Manor, CA 94806

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 74 Days on market

Built 2002 $167/sqft · 18% above area Est $191k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Custom-Built 2002 Home in Tara Hills Mobile Manor Senior Park • 2 Bedroom / 2 Bath 1,344 Sq Ft Updated Manufactured Home • Includes an Additional Large Family Room/Den • Enjoy the Afternoon Breezes from the Golden Gate • Designer Kitchen with New Stainless Appliances & Quartz Counters • Updated Baths with Designer Vanities, Fixtures & Quartz Counters • Wood Laminate Flooring Throughout • Vaulted Ceilings, Dual-Paned Windows & Custom Stair Lift • Resort Style Living in the San Francisco Bay Area • New Furnace, Washer & Dryer and much more … • Community Amenities include: • Year-Round Heated Pool, Spa & Sauna • Community Center with Meeting Rooms, Kitchen • Library, Game Room & Activities • Close to Parks, Open Space, Hiking & Biking Trails • Easy Access to I-80, I-580, Hwy 4, BART & AMTRAK

Key facts

• Designer kitchen
• Large family room
• Updated baths

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT HOME
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• DESIGNER KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHS
• VINYL LAMINATE FLOORING
• VAULTED CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#262 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• West Contra Costa Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #993 of 1,400 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $211,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.44%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,951
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: 17.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16401 San Pablo Ave #280	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,320 (-2%)	2mo	$260,000	$197	95
16401 San Pablo Ave #429	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	3mo	$200,000	$146	91
16401 San Pablo Ave #338	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	8mo	$120,000	$86	83
16401 San Pablo Ave #263	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	8mo	$215,000	$172	81
16401 San Pablo Ave #245	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	2mo	$150,000	$125	79
16401 San Pablo Ave #433	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (+6%)	11mo	$260,000	$182	75
16401 San Pablo Ave #413	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	11mo	$160,000	$111	75
16401 San Pablo Ave #131	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	22mo	$140,000	$102	75
16401 San Pablo Ave #103	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,286 (-4%)	23mo	$142,500	$111	74
16401 San Pablo Ave #344	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-7%)	17mo	$220,000	$176	69
16401 San Pablo Ave #434	0.08mi	2/1.0	1,200 (-11%)	8mo	$109,950	$92	67
16401 San Pablo Ave #113	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-15%)	20mo	$197,500	$173	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $31,989
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $116,247
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94806

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,036 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $613/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $1,073

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,677

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2633 Rim Rd San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1187	$3,500	$2.95	43d	1	0.12mi
2689 Limerick Rd San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$3,650	$3.12	43d	1	0.59mi
2275 Cypress Ave San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$3,095	$2.57	16d	1	0.77mi
3400 Richmond Pkwy San Pablo, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$2,417	$2.67	1d	67	0.83mi
2601 Hilltop Dr San Pablo, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	963	$3,279	$3.40	1d	21	0.99mi
530 Sunnyview Dr Pinole, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,199	$2.23	1d	16	1.30mi
3614 Stoneglen S San Pablo, CA	2.0	2.0	1176	$2,395	$2.04	43d	1	1.31mi
2131 Stanton Ave Unit F San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,275	$2.53	5d	1	1.42mi
2131 Stanton Ave San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,999	$2.10	43d	1	1.42mi
1588 Ridgecrest Rd Pinole, CA	3.0	2.0	1044	$3,050	$2.92	24d	1	1.46mi
3185 Garrity Way Richmond, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	967	$3,620	$3.74	1d	17	1.47mi
24 Park Ln El Sobrante, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$3,200	$2.96	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $225,000 Pending 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-05-04
   price $225,000 913-char remark

   Show marketing remark (913 chars)

   Custom-Built 2002 Home in Tara Hills Mobile Manor Senior Park • 2 Bedroom / 2 Bath 1,344 Sq Ft Updated Manufactured Home • Includes an Additional Large Family Room/Den • Enjoy the Afternoon Breezes from the Golden Gate • Designer Kitchen with New Stainless Appliances & Quartz Counters • Updated Baths with Designer Vanities, Fixtures & Quartz Counters • Wood Laminate Flooring Throughout • Vaulted Ceilings, Dual-Paned Windows & Custom Stair Lift • Resort Style Living in the San Francisco Bay Area • New Furnace, Washer & Dryer and much more … • Community Amenities include: • Year-Round Heated Pool, Spa & Sauna • Community Center with Meeting Rooms, Kitchen • Library, Game Room & Activities • Close to Parks, Open Space, Hiking & Biking Trails • Easy Access to I-80, I-580, Hwy 4, BART & AMTRAK

5. 2026-03-20
   listed $240,000 Active 913-char remark

   Show marketing remark (913 chars)

   Custom-Built 2002 Home in Tara Hills Mobile Manor Senior Park • 2 Bedroom / 2 Bath 1,344 Sq Ft Updated Manufactured Home • Includes an Additional Large Family Room/Den • Enjoy the Afternoon Breezes from the Golden Gate • Designer Kitchen with New Stainless Appliances & Quartz Counters • Updated Baths with Designer Vanities, Fixtures & Quartz Counters • Wood Laminate Flooring Throughout • Vaulted Ceilings, Dual-Paned Windows & Custom Stair Lift • Resort Style Living in the San Francisco Bay Area • New Furnace, Washer & Dryer and much more … • Community Amenities include: • Year-Round Heated Pool, Spa & Sauna • Community Center with Meeting Rooms, Kitchen • Library, Game Room & Activities • Close to Parks, Open Space, Hiking & Biking Trails • Easy Access to I-80, I-580, Hwy 4, BART & AMTRAK

6. 2023-09-01
   soldstatus $228,000 928-char remark

   Show marketing remark (928 chars)

   Enjoy the Good Life living in the beautiful Tara Hills Senior Adult Community! This secluded Senior 55+ Mobile Home Park is situated right by the bay. Built like a Single-Family home, there are 2 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, an Office/Den, and 1,344 sq ft of interior living space to enjoy it all in comfort and style. The large master bedroom has a deep walk-in closet and an attached bathroom with a walk-in shower. The Kitchen is spacious and has a large Breakfast bar. The Laundry Area includes the Washer & Dryer with plenty of room for your laundry supplies and more. This home has Central Heat AND is prewired and ready for A/C! The covered carport includes an electric outdoor Scooter/Wheelchair Lift and a storage shed! The large Club House and pool area are right across the street. Community events and gatherings are available to keep you busy! Schedule your Tour Today and see for yourself the beauty that awaits!

7. 2023-09-01
   soldstatus $228,000 Closed 928-char remark

   Show marketing remark (928 chars)

   Enjoy the Good Life living in the beautiful Tara Hills Senior Adult Community! This secluded Senior 55+ Mobile Home Park is situated right by the bay. Built like a Single-Family home, there are 2 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, an Office/Den, and 1,344 sq ft of interior living space to enjoy it all in comfort and style. The large master bedroom has a deep walk-in closet and an attached bathroom with a walk-in shower. The Kitchen is spacious and has a large Breakfast bar. The Laundry Area includes the Washer & Dryer with plenty of room for your laundry supplies and more. This home has Central Heat AND is prewired and ready for A/C! The covered carport includes an electric outdoor Scooter/Wheelchair Lift and a storage shed! The large Club House and pool area are right across the street. Community events and gatherings are available to keep you busy! Schedule your Tour Today and see for yourself the beauty that awaits!

8. 2023-05-22
   historical Contingent (No Show) 928-char remark

   Show marketing remark (928 chars)

   Enjoy the Good Life living in the beautiful Tara Hills Senior Adult Community! This secluded Senior 55+ Mobile Home Park is situated right by the bay. Built like a Single-Family home, there are 2 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, an Office/Den, and 1,344 sq ft of interior living space to enjoy it all in comfort and style. The large master bedroom has a deep walk-in closet and an attached bathroom with a walk-in shower. The Kitchen is spacious and has a large Breakfast bar. The Laundry Area includes the Washer & Dryer with plenty of room for your laundry supplies and more. This home has Central Heat AND is prewired and ready for A/C! The covered carport includes an electric outdoor Scooter/Wheelchair Lift and a storage shed! The large Club House and pool area are right across the street. Community events and gatherings are available to keep you busy! Schedule your Tour Today and see for yourself the beauty that awaits!

9. 2023-03-23
   price $235,000 928-char remark

   Show marketing remark (928 chars)

   Enjoy the Good Life living in the beautiful Tara Hills Senior Adult Community! This secluded Senior 55+ Mobile Home Park is situated right by the bay. Built like a Single-Family home, there are 2 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, an Office/Den, and 1,344 sq ft of interior living space to enjoy it all in comfort and style. The large master bedroom has a deep walk-in closet and an attached bathroom with a walk-in shower. The Kitchen is spacious and has a large Breakfast bar. The Laundry Area includes the Washer & Dryer with plenty of room for your laundry supplies and more. This home has Central Heat AND is prewired and ready for A/C! The covered carport includes an electric outdoor Scooter/Wheelchair Lift and a storage shed! The large Club House and pool area are right across the street. Community events and gatherings are available to keep you busy! Schedule your Tour Today and see for yourself the beauty that awaits!

10. 2022-11-26
    listed $239,500 Active 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    Enjoy the Good Life living in the beautiful Tara Hills Senior Adult Community! This secluded Senior 55+ Mobile Home Park is situated right by the bay. Built like a Single-Family home, there are 2 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, an Office/Den, and 1,344 sq ft of interior living space to enjoy it all in comfort and style. The large master bedroom has a deep walk-in closet and an attached bathroom with a walk-in shower. The Kitchen is spacious and has a large Breakfast bar. The Laundry Area includes the Washer & Dryer with plenty of room for your laundry supplies and more. This home has Central Heat AND is prewired and ready for A/C! The covered carport includes an electric outdoor Scooter/Wheelchair Lift and a storage shed! The large Club House and pool area are right across the street. Community events and gatherings are available to keep you busy! Schedule your Tour Today and see for yourself the beauty that awaits!

11. 2022-11-26
    listed $235,000 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    Enjoy the Good Life living in the beautiful Tara Hills Senior Adult Community! This secluded Senior 55+ Mobile Home Park is situated right by the bay. Built like a Single-Family home, there are 2 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, an Office/Den, and 1,344 sq ft of interior living space to enjoy it all in comfort and style. The large master bedroom has a deep walk-in closet and an attached bathroom with a walk-in shower. The Kitchen is spacious and has a large Breakfast bar. The Laundry Area includes the Washer & Dryer with plenty of room for your laundry supplies and more. This home has Central Heat AND is prewired and ready for A/C! The covered carport includes an electric outdoor Scooter/Wheelchair Lift and a storage shed! The large Club House and pool area are right across the street. Community events and gatherings are available to keep you busy! Schedule your Tour Today and see for yourself the beauty that awaits!

12. 2015-06-08
    soldstatus $108,000 Sold
13. 2015-04-25
    status Pending - Show for Backups
14. 2015-04-21
    listed $110,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $613 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,097/yr (+$91/mo · 178.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$613
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,914
• − Management: −$2,914
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $9,712
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,331
• After-tax cash flow: $10,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Contra Costa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632550
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,837
• Composite: 30.04/100
• National rank: #11623
• State rank: #993 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Montalvin Manor

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #262
• US rank: #8705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montalvin Manor, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 62,546
• Household income: $86,034
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2830.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Two or more races 16% Asian 16% Black 13% White 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 2% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -665.89%
• Current HPI: 323.0082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+104.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $225,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-20 Listed $240,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-09-01 Sold (MLS) $228,000 BAREIS
• 2023-09-01 Sold (MLS) $228,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2023-05-22 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2023-03-23 Price Changed $235,000 BAREIS
• 2022-11-26 Listed $239,500 BAREIS
• 2022-11-26 Listed $235,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2015-06-08 Sold (MLS) $108,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-04-25 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-04-21 Listed $110,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $613 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.