38770 State Route 3 · Carthage, NY 13619

$170,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1955 0.29 ac lot $127/sqft · 25% below area Est $225k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Endless possibilities in this cute & cozy home located just outside the village of Carthage. Main house offers 2 bedrooms & 1 bath, large living room w/ original hardwood floors, eat-in kitchen w/ sliding patio door that leads to the big back deck & deep private back yard. Full walk up attic offers storage space or potential to finish for additional living space. The attached garage was converted to a home office & gives the opportunity to work from home or offers 2 additional bedrooms & den area. Full dry basement gives even more possibilities & has a finished room currently used as a spare bedroom. Additional shed outside for your toys also has electric ran to it & can used for a workshop. New high efficient furnace w/ central air, roof is 6 years old, public water but no village taxes. Minutes to Carthage Hospital & only 15 minutes to Ft. Drum.

Key facts

• All new windows
• 0.29 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• ALL NEW WINDOWS
• ROOF ONLY 5 6 YEARS OLD
• MUNICIPAL WATER CONNECTED
• OVERSIZED ELEVATED DECK
• SCENIC WOODED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No detached garage
• Utilities: Electricity available and connected; Public water (connected); Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story property; Wood siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Existing condition; Main thoroughfare frontage; Rectangular lot (80 x 160)
• Construction: Built as existing structure; Wood siding exterior; Shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck (open); Porch; Blacktop driveway; Propane tank (leased); Shed(s); Storage; Garage apartment

Interior

• Kitchen: Galley kitchen; Electric range; Electric oven; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Separate/formal living room; Living/dining room; Home office; Convertible bedroom; Bedroom on main level; Accessible bedroom; Galley kitchen; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#506 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carthage Elementary School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 378 students, 63% FRL); Carthage Middle School (math 19% / reading 41%, grade F, #539 of 729 statewide, top 74%, 899 students, 51% FRL); Carthage Senior High School (math 92% / reading 72%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 815 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 31% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,472 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.30%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,341
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -24.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1055 West St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,242 (-7%)	7mo	$150,000	$121	58
994 Alexandria St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (-9%)	18mo	$67,000	$55	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $76,715
• Equity at exit: $153,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $238,491
• Equity at exit: $330,273

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13619

• Home prices YoY: 26.0%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,870/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,521

Max offer price $125,884

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-153	-5% $-202	+0% $-250	+5% $-298	+10% $-346
Rent	-10% $-345	-5% $-297	+0% $-250	+5% $-202	+10% $-155
Rate	-1.0pp $-164	-0.5pp $-206	base $-250	+0.5pp $-294	+1.0pp $-339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
719 Alexandria St Unit 719 Carthage, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	45d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $170,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 35 DOM
18. 2026-05-09
    status Active 1669-char remark
19. 2026-04-30
    historical Active Under Contract 1669-char remark
20. 2026-04-25
    listed $180,000 Active 1669-char remark
21. 2022-01-21
    soldstatus $170,000
22. 2022-01-07
    soldstatus $170,000 Closed Sale or Rented 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    Endless possibilities in this cute & cozy home located just outside the village of Carthage. Main house offers 2 bedrooms & 1 bath, large living room w/ original hardwood floors, eat-in kitchen w/ sliding patio door that leads to the big back deck & deep private back yard. Full walk up attic offers storage space or potential to finish for additional living space. The attached garage was converted to a home office & gives the opportunity to work from home or offers 2 additional bedrooms & den area. Full dry basement gives even more possibilities & has a finished room currently used as a spare bedroom. Additional shed outside for your toys also has electric ran to it & can used for a workshop. New high efficient furnace w/ central air, roof is 6 years old, public water but no village taxes. Minutes to Carthage Hospital & only 15 minutes to Ft. Drum.

23. 2021-10-13
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    Endless possibilities in this cute & cozy home located just outside the village of Carthage. Main house offers 2 bedrooms & 1 bath, large living room w/ original hardwood floors, eat-in kitchen w/ sliding patio door that leads to the big back deck & deep private back yard. Full walk up attic offers storage space or potential to finish for additional living space. The attached garage was converted to a home office & gives the opportunity to work from home or offers 2 additional bedrooms & den area. Full dry basement gives even more possibilities & has a finished room currently used as a spare bedroom. Additional shed outside for your toys also has electric ran to it & can used for a workshop. New high efficient furnace w/ central air, roof is 6 years old, public water but no village taxes. Minutes to Carthage Hospital & only 15 minutes to Ft. Drum.

24. 2021-10-08
    listed $159,900 Active 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    Endless possibilities in this cute & cozy home located just outside the village of Carthage. Main house offers 2 bedrooms & 1 bath, large living room w/ original hardwood floors, eat-in kitchen w/ sliding patio door that leads to the big back deck & deep private back yard. Full walk up attic offers storage space or potential to finish for additional living space. The attached garage was converted to a home office & gives the opportunity to work from home or offers 2 additional bedrooms & den area. Full dry basement gives even more possibilities & has a finished room currently used as a spare bedroom. Additional shed outside for your toys also has electric ran to it & can used for a workshop. New high efficient furnace w/ central air, roof is 6 years old, public water but no village taxes. Minutes to Carthage Hospital & only 15 minutes to Ft. Drum.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,870 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,871 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$2/yr ($0/mo · 0.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,870
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$6,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,451
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606630
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 32.63/100
• National rank: #5668
• State rank: #539 of 590 in NY

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #8895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment D+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 10,578
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,578
• Household income: $63,120
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 379.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 84.02%
• Current HPI: 406.9439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+6.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $170,000 CNYIS
• 2026-05-09 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $180,000 CNYIS
• 2022-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-07 Sold (MLS) $170,000 CNYIS
• 2021-10-13 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2021-10-08 Listed $159,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,870 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.