1 Fordham Hill Oval Oval Unit 4E · New York, NY 10468

$120,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · Condo · 286 Days on market

Built 1950 ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.2/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious one-bedroom apartment in the desirable Fordham Hill Oval complex. This home is in original condition, offering plenty of potential for updates and personal touches. Large windows bring in great natural light, and the layout provides comfortable living with good storage. Fordham Hill Oval is a gated community with 24-hour security, landscaped grounds, on-site laundry, fitness center, playgrounds, and community spaces. Maintenance covers all utilities and taxes for worry-free living. Conveniently located near multiple subway lines, buses, Metro North, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• Gated community
• On site laundry
• Fitness center

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• 24 HOUR SECURITY
• LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• ON SITE LAUNDRY
• FITNESS CENTER
• PLAYGROUNDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property listed as a cooperative (no investor cash flow details provided)
• HOA & community: Association managed by First Service Reside

Exterior

• Parking: No carport
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Stock cooperative; Living area recorded from plans
• Construction: Brick construction; Common basement
• Exterior features: Brick construction; Not waterfront; Gated community

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances included
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedroom on first floor)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Double-pane windows; Common-area basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-486 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,244/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 9659% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $604 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 64% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 1.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.37%
• DSCR: 0.23
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.5% appreciation · 6.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-22,039
• Equity at exit: $37,897

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,060
• Equity at exit: $48,068

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10468

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,244 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$1,430
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,860

Max offer price $49,624

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Netherland Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$2,775	$2.45	22d	3	1.08mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: landscapinggymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 286 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 285 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 283 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 281 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 276 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $120,000 Active 271 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-02-06
    price $120,000
11. 2025-09-05
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,154
• − Management: −$2,154
• − HOA: −$17,160
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$7,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,716
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 75,557
• Household income: $46,233
• Rent vs Own: 91.5% rent · 8.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9659.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Black 17% Two or more races 15% White 3% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 45%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 69% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.50%
• Current HPI: 249.8923
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.70%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $120,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Listed $140,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid