1813 Willow Dr · Pevely, MO 63070

$77,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,296 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1986 0.26 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute Modular just waiting for a family to make it a home! The kitchen has numerous cabinets/countertops perfect for the family cook. A dining area with a breakfast bar that opens to the living room. The master offers a great walk-in closet and full bath. The entire home offers insulated windows thru-out, new carpet and flooring, vaulted ceilings, six panel doors and so much more. All sitting on a full walk-out basement with a tuckunder garage on a great lot that backs to woods.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $77k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#327 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dunklin R-V (suburban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #149 of 324 in MO (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pevely Elem. (math 36% / reading 46%, grade F, #520 of 1,115 statewide, top 47%, 708 students, 50% FRL); Herculaneum High (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B-, #28 of 521 statewide, top 6%, 489 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Dunklin R-V average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $532 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.27%
• DSCR: 3.28
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $46,224
• Equity at exit: $11,481

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $115,929
• Equity at exit: $6,658

Cash invested: $21,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63070

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$404
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,254/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $921

Break-even live

Break-even rent $684

Max offer price $77,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $965	-5% $943	+0% $921	+5% $899	+10% $878
Rent	-10% $775	-5% $848	+0% $921	+5% $994	+10% $1,067
Rate	-1.0pp $960	-0.5pp $941	base $921	+0.5pp $901	+1.0pp $881

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,250
• Closing costs: $2,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
92 W 3rd St Unit NA Pevely, MO	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,850	$1.36	12d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2025-09-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-02
   listed $77,000 Active
3. 2025-04-10
   listed Active Under Contract
4. 2025-04-10
   listed $70,000
5. 2012-05-03
   soldstatus
6. 2012-05-01
   soldstatus 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   Cute Modular just waiting for a family to make it a home! The kitchen has numerous cabinets/countertops perfect for the family cook. A dining area with a breakfast bar that opens to the living room. The master offers a great walk-in closet and full bath. The entire home offers insulated windows thru-out, new carpet and flooring, vaulted ceilings, six panel doors and so much more. All sitting on a full walk-out basement with a tuckunder garage on a great lot that backs to woods.

7. 2011-09-12
   listed $84,400 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   Cute Modular just waiting for a family to make it a home! The kitchen has numerous cabinets/countertops perfect for the family cook. A dining area with a breakfast bar that opens to the living room. The master offers a great walk-in closet and full bath. The entire home offers insulated windows thru-out, new carpet and flooring, vaulted ceilings, six panel doors and so much more. All sitting on a full walk-out basement with a tuckunder garage on a great lot that backs to woods.

8. 2006-02-10
   soldstatus
9. 2004-11-10
   soldstatus
10. 2004-11-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,313
• − Property taxes: −$1,254
• − Insurance: −$385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$2,240
• Taxable income: $10,456
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,509
• After-tax cash flow: $8,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunklin R-V
• NCES district ID: 2914250
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,839
• Composite: 33.62/100
• National rank: #5403
• State rank: #149 of 324 in MO

Livability — Pevely

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #327
• US rank: #15061

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pevely, MO
• Population (ZIP): 8,365

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, South Korea

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.40%
• Current HPI: 203.8737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-02 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Listed $77,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-10 Listed $70,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-10 Listed — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-05-01 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-12 Listed $84,400 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,254 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.