19070 Cetara Villa Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$279,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,642 sqft · SingleFamily · 71 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,492 sqft lot $171/sqft · 11% below area Est $314k · 11% under $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This elegant one-story home on a corner lot features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, a covered patio, and a generous backyard-all wrapped in durable brick for timeless curb appeal. The professionally designed interior offers a modern, refined touch throughout. Nestled in Cypress Green, a picturesque 646-acre master-planned community in Hockley, TX, residents enjoy a peaceful setting, access to highly rated Waller ISD schools, and resort-style amenities including a pool, splash pad, water park, sports courts, and dog park. Don't wait-make this exceptional home yours today!

Key facts

• Highly rated schools
• Covered patio
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COVERED PATIO
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,953 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.44%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,795
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -10.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19071 Cetara Villa Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,582 (-4%)	0mo	$249,990	$158	94
22011 Maddaloni View Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-1%)	1mo	$296,990	$183	80
19307 Licola Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-1%)	0mo	$276,990	$170	80
21647 Carbonari Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,635 (-0%)	1mo	$330,990	$202	79
22202 San Lioni Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-3%)	1mo	$311,990	$195	76
21643 Carbonari Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+1%)	1mo	$333,990	$202	75
21623 Carbonari Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+1%)	1mo	$328,990	$199	75
21639 Carbonari Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+6%)	1mo	$337,990	$193	68
22026 Matera Vista Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,759 (+7%)	1mo	$299,990	$171	67
22102 La Scorza Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+9%)	1mo	$324,990	$181	65
22106 La Scorza Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+14%)	0mo	$307,990	$164	57
22210 San Lioni Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+14%)	1mo	$330,990	$176	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-66,268
• Equity at exit: $41,747

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-101,517
• Equity at exit: $24,208

Cash invested: $78,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,270 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,554

Max offer price $247,429

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,998
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,450	$1.17	22d	1	0.28mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,951	$1.02	1d	1	0.87mi
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,863	$1.16	1d	1	0.96mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,931	$0.91	5d	1	1.02mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,353	$1.15	1d	1	1.04mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	2d	1	1.19mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,689	$1.19	1d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $289,990 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (599 chars)

   This elegant one-story home on a corner lot features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, a covered patio, and a generous backyard—all wrapped in durable brick for timeless curb appeal. The professionally designed interior offers a modern, refined touch throughout. Nestled in Cypress Green, a picturesque 646-acre master-planned community in Hockley, TX, residents enjoy a peaceful setting, access to highly rated Waller ISD schools, and resort-style amenities including a pool, splash pad, water park, sports courts, and dog park. Don’t wait—make this exceptional home yours today!

2. 2026-05-15
   price $289,990 599-char remark

   Show marketing remark (599 chars)

   This elegant one-story home on a corner lot features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, a covered patio, and a generous backyard—all wrapped in durable brick for timeless curb appeal. The professionally designed interior offers a modern, refined touch throughout. Nestled in Cypress Green, a picturesque 646-acre master-planned community in Hockley, TX, residents enjoy a peaceful setting, access to highly rated Waller ISD schools, and resort-style amenities including a pool, splash pad, water park, sports courts, and dog park. Don’t wait—make this exceptional home yours today!

3. 2026-03-20
   price $314,990 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   This elegant one-story home on a corner lot features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, a covered patio, and a generous backyard-all wrapped in durable brick for timeless curb appeal. The professionally designed interior offers a modern, refined touch throughout. Nestled in Cypress Green, a picturesque 646-acre master-planned community in Hockley, TX, residents enjoy a peaceful setting, access to highly rated Waller ISD schools, and resort-style amenities including a pool, splash pad, water park, sports courts, and dog park. Don't wait-make this exceptional home yours today!

4. 2026-03-19
   price $314,990 599-char remark

   Show marketing remark (599 chars)

   This elegant one-story home on a corner lot features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, a covered patio, and a generous backyard—all wrapped in durable brick for timeless curb appeal. The professionally designed interior offers a modern, refined touch throughout. Nestled in Cypress Green, a picturesque 646-acre master-planned community in Hockley, TX, residents enjoy a peaceful setting, access to highly rated Waller ISD schools, and resort-style amenities including a pool, splash pad, water park, sports courts, and dog park. Don’t wait—make this exceptional home yours today!

5. 2026-03-18
   listed $334,990 Active 599-char remark

   Show marketing remark (599 chars)

   This elegant one-story home on a corner lot features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, a covered patio, and a generous backyard—all wrapped in durable brick for timeless curb appeal. The professionally designed interior offers a modern, refined touch throughout. Nestled in Cypress Green, a picturesque 646-acre master-planned community in Hockley, TX, residents enjoy a peaceful setting, access to highly rated Waller ISD schools, and resort-style amenities including a pool, splash pad, water park, sports courts, and dog park. Don’t wait—make this exceptional home yours today!

6. 2026-01-29
   price $334,990 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   This elegant one-story home on a corner lot features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, a covered patio, and a generous backyard-all wrapped in durable brick for timeless curb appeal. The professionally designed interior offers a modern, refined touch throughout. Nestled in Cypress Green, a picturesque 646-acre master-planned community in Hockley, TX, residents enjoy a peaceful setting, access to highly rated Waller ISD schools, and resort-style amenities including a pool, splash pad, water park, sports courts, and dog park. Don't wait-make this exceptional home yours today!

7. 2026-01-16
   listed $339,990 Active 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   This elegant one-story home on a corner lot features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, a covered patio, and a generous backyard-all wrapped in durable brick for timeless curb appeal. The professionally designed interior offers a modern, refined touch throughout. Nestled in Cypress Green, a picturesque 646-acre master-planned community in Hockley, TX, residents enjoy a peaceful setting, access to highly rated Waller ISD schools, and resort-style amenities including a pool, splash pad, water park, sports courts, and dog park. Don't wait-make this exceptional home yours today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,179
• − Management: −$2,179
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$7,548
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,811
• After-tax cash flow: $-889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This one-story home on a corner lot in Cypress Green, Hockley, TX, is in good condition with a durable brick exterior and modern interior. It offers a peaceful setting and access to resort-style amenities. Painting and landscaping improvements can further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $314,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $314,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $334,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $334,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Listed $339,990 Zillow