612 Manchester Dr · Kewanee, IL 61443

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1971 8,276 sqft lot Est $38k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lots of potential in this 3 bedroom split foyer. 2 bedrooms on the main level (could be 3 as one of the bedrooms has been tranformed into a large master bath). 1 bedroom in the basement level. Other amenities include 2 baths, oversized 2 car garage and a large level lot.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1971

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 8.7% in Kewanee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#409 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Kewanee CUSD 229 (town): math 8% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #540 of 620 in IL (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.26%
• DSCR: 3.06
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $38,352
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1221 June St	0.58mi	2/— (-1)	832 (+2%)	4mo	$22,000	$26	62
722 Monroe St	0.56mi	3/1.0	860 (+5%)	4mo	$40,000	$47	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $17,587
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $46,607
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61443

• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,017 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,746/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $541

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-14
   listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,746 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,746 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$1,746
• − Insurance: −$866
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$977
• − Management: −$977
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,238
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,017
• After-tax cash flow: $3,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kewanee CUSD 229
• NCES district ID: 1721000
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,294
• Composite: 11.77/100
• National rank: #9682
• State rank: #540 of 620 in IL

Livability — Kewanee

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #409
• US rank: #8423

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kewanee, IL
• Population (ZIP): 13,529

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,376 people
• By 2030: 45,920 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 42,829 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 39,606 · -16.4%
• By 2075: 31,848 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 23,503 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% English 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.5) · D 36.8% · R 61.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.5 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+21.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.32%
• Current HPI: 121.8672
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listed $40,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,746 · +15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.