3762 NE 16th Pl · Cape Coral, FL 33909

$314,885

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,499 sqft · Land · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WELCOME TO YOUR NEW DR HORTON HOME!! This is our appealing one-story, open concept, 1499 sqft FREEPORT II Floorplan featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2-car garage, all concrete block construction. This home is on a beautiful lot located in Cape Coral. This home boasts Designer cabinets and quartz countertops in both the kitchen and baths. Experience the timeless beauty and durability of RevWood laminated wood floors featured throughout the home, modern flat stock trim and baseboards, all stainless kitchen appliances including refrigerator, paver driveways, and garage door openers. These homes move quickly so don’t miss out. Finishings may vary - images are representational only of t

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept
• Designer cabinets

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• DESIGNER CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• REVWOOD LAMINATED WOOD FLOORS
• STAINLESS KITCHEN APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Cape Coral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in FL, #3,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.6%/yr); 1597 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $315k implies a 641% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,680 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.62%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-65,223
• Equity at exit: $46,950

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-92,124
• Equity at exit: $27,225

Cash invested: $88,168 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33909

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 1597
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,197 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $867/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,348

Max offer price $293,817

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $-30	+0% $-119	+5% $-208	+10% $-298
Rent	-10% $-293	-5% $-206	+0% $-119	+5% $-32	+10% $54
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-39	base $-119	+0.5pp $-201	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,721
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3928 NE 17th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1683	$2,100	$1.25	24d	1	0.07mi
4125 NE 15th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,000	$1.29	24d	1	0.38mi
4141 NE 19th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1734	$1,995	$1.15	15d	1	0.39mi
3717 NE 13th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,795	$1.27	17d	1	0.41mi
3622 NE 19th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,480	$1.93	24d	1	0.47mi
4215 E Gator Cir Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,725	$1.25	4d	1	0.51mi
3732 NE 12th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,950	$1.38	24d	1	0.53mi
3603 NE 19th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,750	$1.53	4d	1	0.55mi
3512 NE 17th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1650	$1,995	$1.21	4d	1	0.58mi
2117 NE 40th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	3.0	1776	$2,100	$1.18	17d	1	0.58mi
3511 NE 17th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1717	$2,350	$1.37	20d	1	0.58mi
3527 NE 19th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1574	$2,000	$1.27	24d	1	0.59mi
1518 NE 43rd Ln Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,200	$1.25	17d	1	0.62mi
1532 NE 35th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1809	$1,995	$1.10	24d	1	0.65mi
4309 NE 20th Ct Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,000	$1.13	22d	1	0.65mi
1701 NE 44th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,800	$1.57	15d	1	0.69mi
1701 NE 44th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,800	$1.57	17d	1	0.69mi
4421 NE 15th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,000	$1.61	24d	1	0.72mi
4028 NE 10th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,146	$1.16	4d	1	0.79mi
3804 NE 9th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1683	$1,995	$1.19	15d	1	0.87mi
4109 NE 9th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$1,835	$1.09	4d	1	0.90mi
4020 Garden Blvd Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,845	$1.12	22d	1	0.93mi
3462 NE 10th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1665	$3,000	$1.80	24d	1	0.96mi
3610 NE 9th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,995	$1.12	15d	1	0.98mi
1015 NE 34th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1760	$2,300	$1.31	24d	1	1.12mi
2434 Laurentina Ln Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.5	1744	$1,975	$1.13	24d	1	1.12mi
2217 NE 33rd Ln Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,650	$1.55	24d	1	1.15mi
19152 Meadowbrook Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,499	$1.20	3d	1	1.15mi
3223 NE 14th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1765	$2,200	$1.25	24d	1	1.16mi
3445 NE 8th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1734	$2,200	$1.27	24d	1	1.17mi
2213 NE 33rd St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,800	$1.30	24d	1	1.24mi
1672 Lake Jessup Cir Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.5	1729	$2,200	$1.27	11d	1	1.30mi
19414 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,499	$1.20	3d	1	1.31mi
19421 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,499	$1.25	3d	1	1.33mi
19477 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,499	$1.03	3d	1	1.36mi
1541 Fells Cove Ln Unit 1541 Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.5	1657	$2,400	$1.45	4d	1	1.37mi
1541 Fells Cove Ln Unit 1541 Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.5	1657	$2,400	$1.45	15d	1	1.37mi
1545 Lake Jessup Cir Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.5	1831	$2,350	$1.28	24d	1	1.42mi
13700 Oak St North Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$2,465	$2.41	4d	32	1.44mi
1424 Weeping Willow Ct Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.5	1679	$1,999	$1.19	24d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $314,885 Active
3. 2025-10-08
   soldstatus $42,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $867 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,747/yr (+$146/mo · 201.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,638
• − Property taxes: −$867
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,109
• − Management: −$2,109
• − Depreciation: −$9,160
• Taxable loss: −$7,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,703
• After-tax cash flow: $272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cape Coral

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #3098

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Coral, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 217,388
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,231
• Household income: $73,053
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1657.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 24% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 14% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.24%
• Current HPI: 313.8761
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.60%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+640.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $314,885 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $867 · +15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.