2930 Girard Ave N · Minneapolis, MN 55411

$159,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1912 6,098 sqft lot $86/sqft · 35% below area Est $249k · 36% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property features a front and back porch. The main level has hardwood floors and a kitchen. Upper level features 3 bedrooms, hardwood floors, a full bathroom, and a back porch. The basement has a 3/4 bathroom.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Front porch
• Back porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• BACK PORCH
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FULL BATHROOM
• 3/4 BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $881 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 3.1% in Minneapolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#110 in MN, #2,525 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F.
• Minneapolis Public School District (urban): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #217 of 301 in MN (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,515/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 1826% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $160k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $150,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.62%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,185
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -35.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $41,754
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $160,374
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 34 Tenant-Leaning
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Minneapolis: 34 Tenant-Leaning · D+50

Tenant Opportunity to Purchase; renter's protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55411

• Home prices YoY: -8.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,515 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $881

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2923 Girard Ave N Minneapolis, MN	5.0	2.0	1760	$2,795	$1.59	22d	1	0.05mi
3105 N Girard Ave Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	24d	1	0.10mi
2819 Girard Ave N Minneapolis, MN	5.0	2.0	1718	$2,300	$1.34	44d	1	0.12mi
3238 Humboldt Ave N Minneapolis, MN	5.0	1.0	1389	$2,100	$1.51	44d	1	0.24mi
2647 Fremont Ave N Minneapolis, MN	5.0	1.0	1508	$2,595	$1.72	14d	1	0.25mi
2646 Dupont Ave N Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1514	$2,245	$1.48	44d	1	0.32mi
3315 James Ave N Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	4d	1	0.37mi
3114 Morgan Ave N Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.0	1362	$2,000	$1.47	14d	1	0.37mi
3342 Fremont Ave N Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,200	$1.10	24d	1	0.38mi
1113 N 25th Ave Minneapolis, MN	5.0	2.0	2295	$2,695	$1.17	18d	1	0.45mi
2643 Lyndale Ave N Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.0	2198	$750	$0.34	17d	1	0.50mi
3247 N 6th St Minneapolis, MN	5.0	1.5	1405	$2,350	$1.67	22d	1	0.56mi
3247 N 6th St Minneapolis, MN	5.0	1.5	1405	$2,350	$1.67	24d	1	0.56mi
3247 N 6th St Minneapolis, MN	5.0	1.5	1405	$2,350	$1.67	44d	1	0.56mi
1510 N 22nd Ave #1 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,875	$1.25	4d	1	0.64mi
1510 N 22nd Ave #1 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,875	$1.25	22d	1	0.64mi
2324 Logan Ave N Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.5	1400	$2,300	$1.64	44d	1	0.66mi
3522 Bryant Ave N Minneapolis, MN	5.0	2.0	1449	$2,995	$2.07	44d	1	0.66mi
3526 Newton Ave N Minneapolis, MN	5.0	2.0	1470	$2,795	$1.90	2d	1	0.72mi
1414 Golden Valley Rd Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	5.0	2.0	2000	$2,595	$1.30	44d	1	0.84mi
1312 18th Ave N Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1520	$1,899	$1.25	8d	1	0.93mi
3935 Fremont Ave N Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1900	$2,595	$1.37	44d	1	1.09mi
1429 Knox Ave N Unit 1429 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1260	$1,995	$1.58	44d	1	1.20mi
2035 W River Rd Minneapolis, MN	1.0–4.0	2.0	1034	$2,503	$2.42	4d	10	1.22mi
1504 Queen Ave N Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.5	1746	$2,800	$1.60	2d	1	1.30mi
1625 Marshall St NE Minneapolis, MN	5.0	3.0	1900	$3,495	$1.84	22d	1	1.34mi
1428 Marshall St NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,300	$1.83	2d	1	1.40mi
1239 Knox Ave N Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1944	$2,400	$1.23	4d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,900 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $159,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    listed $185,900 Active 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    The property features a front and back porch. The main level has hardwood floors and a kitchen. Upper level features 3 bedrooms, hardwood floors, a full bathroom, and a back porch. The basement has a 3/4 bathroom.

16. 2017-05-02
    soldstatus $95,000
17. 2017-04-07
    soldstatus $95,000 Sold 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Classic 2.5 story full of character. Natural woodwork. Oak Build-is, Gleaming Hardwood floors, Bright sunny rooms. Formal dining room. Large eat-in kitchen. Spacious Master suite on third floor. Large porch for summer afternoons. Home needs TLC but has a tremendous upside. Don't miss it. Motivated Seller

18. 2017-03-03
    status Pending 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Classic 2.5 story full of character. Natural woodwork. Oak Build-is, Gleaming Hardwood floors, Bright sunny rooms. Formal dining room. Large eat-in kitchen. Spacious Master suite on third floor. Large porch for summer afternoons. Home needs TLC but has a tremendous upside. Don't miss it. Motivated Seller

19. 2017-03-02
    historical Contingent - Other 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Classic 2.5 story full of character. Natural woodwork. Oak Build-is, Gleaming Hardwood floors, Bright sunny rooms. Formal dining room. Large eat-in kitchen. Spacious Master suite on third floor. Large porch for summer afternoons. Home needs TLC but has a tremendous upside. Don't miss it. Motivated Seller

20. 2016-11-17
    listed $109,500 Active 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Classic 2.5 story full of character. Natural woodwork. Oak Build-is, Gleaming Hardwood floors, Bright sunny rooms. Formal dining room. Large eat-in kitchen. Spacious Master suite on third floor. Large porch for summer afternoons. Home needs TLC but has a tremendous upside. Don't miss it. Motivated Seller

21. 2016-11-15
    historical
22. 2016-10-07
    listed $119,900 Active
23. 2016-09-19
    historical
24. 2016-08-19
    listed $129,500 Active
25. 2016-08-17
    historical
26. 2016-06-20
    listed $129,500 Active
27. 2016-05-10
    status Active
28. 2016-05-10
    historical
29. 2016-04-29
    historical Contingent - Inspection
30. 2016-02-04
    price $107,100
31. 2015-12-21
    listed $119,000 Active
32. 2014-08-26
    soldstatus $887,229
33. 2008-10-26
    soldstatus $63,000
34. 2008-10-18
    historical
35. 2008-08-15
    listed $57,900
36. 2006-04-21
    soldstatus $112,000
37. 2006-04-06
    historical
38. 2006-02-15
    listed $119,900
39. 2005-06-28
    historical
40. 2005-03-09
    listed $155,000
41. 2004-09-01
    soldstatus $84,400
42. 2003-01-21
    soldstatus $159,900
43. 2002-04-15
    listed $159,900
44. 1998-05-06
    soldstatus $35,000
45. 1995-03-28
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,414
• − Management: −$2,414
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $8,540
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,050
• After-tax cash flow: $8,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Minneapolis Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2721240
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,521
• Composite: 34.92/100
• National rank: #5067
• State rank: #217 of 301 in MN

Livability — Minneapolis

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #2525

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Minneapolis, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 417,555
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 27,741
• Household income: $60,225
• Rent vs Own: 47.3% rent · 52.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1826.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 23% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.91%
• Current HPI: 356.6758
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.35%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+431.1% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $185,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-07 Sold (MLS) $95,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-03 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-02 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-17 Listed $109,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-07 Listed $119,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-19 Listed $129,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-20 Listed $129,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-10 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-29 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-04 Price Changed $107,100 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-21 Listed $119,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $887,229 Public Records
• 2008-10-26 Sold (MLS) $63,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-18 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-15 Listed $57,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-21 Sold (MLS) $112,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-15 Listed $119,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-09 Listed $155,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $84,400 Public Records
• 2003-01-21 Sold (MLS) $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-04-15 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1995-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,991 · +61.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.