3509 Serenidad Ave · La Homa, TX 78574

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 901 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 243 Days on market

Built 1985 0.50 ac lot $111/sqft · 24% below area Est $132k · 24% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CALLING ALL INVESTORS!!! Welcome to this cozy fixer-upper located in the out skirts of Mission, TX. This charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home sits on a spacious half acre lot, providing plenty of room for outdoor activities and potential expansion. The concrete block exterior offers durability , while the interior boasts 900 square feet of living space that is just waiting for your personal touch. Although this home needs some tender loving care, it offers endless possibilities for customization and renovation. The addition of a mini-split AC system ensures year-round comfort, while the huge covered patio provides the perfect spot for relaxing or entertaining guests. Don't miss this unique opportunity to turn this diamond in the rough into your dream home. With it being located in north mission and its ample space, this property is sure to be snatched up quickly. Schedule a showing today and see the potential that awaits you in!

Key facts

• Mini-split ac system
• Huge covered patio
• Half acre lot

Tags

• HALF ACRE LOT
• CONCRETE BLOCK EXTERIOR
• MINI-SPLIT AC SYSTEM
• HUGE COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.5% in La Homa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,308 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.60%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,220
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -24.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1616 E Karen Dr Unit A30	0.20mi	2/2.0	946 (+5%)	17mo	$171,000	$181	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $5,514
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $32,847
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78574

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,323 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,665/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $892

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $369	+0% $341	+5% $312	+10% $284
Rent	-10% $236	-5% $288	+0% $341	+5% $393	+10% $445
Rate	-1.0pp $391	-0.5pp $366	base $341	+0.5pp $315	+1.0pp $288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 243 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 235 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 234 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 233 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 232 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $100,000 Active 227 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 226 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 225 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 224 DOM
17. 2025-10-18
    listed $110,000 Active 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    CALLING ALL INVESTORS!!! Welcome to this cozy fixer-upper located in the out skirts of Mission, TX. This charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home sits on a spacious half acre lot, providing plenty of room for outdoor activities and potential expansion. The concrete block exterior offers durability , while the interior boasts 900 square feet of living space that is just waiting for your personal touch. Although this home needs some tender loving care, it offers endless possibilities for customization and renovation. The addition of a mini-split AC system ensures year-round comfort, while the huge covered patio provides the perfect spot for relaxing or entertaining guests. Don't miss this unique opportunity to turn this diamond in the rough into your dream home. With it being located in north mission and its ample space, this property is sure to be snatched up quickly. Schedule a showing today and see the potential that awaits you in!

18. 2025-01-22
    price $115,000
19. 2024-10-25
    price $120,000
20. 2024-10-08
    price $125,000
21. 2024-08-27
    status Active
22. 2024-05-29
    status Pending
23. 2024-04-29
    listed $135,000 Active
24. 2011-08-30
    soldstatus
25. 2006-06-05
    soldstatus
26. 2006-05-09
    soldstatus
27. 2005-12-12
    soldstatus
28. 2001-06-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,665 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$165/yr (+$14/mo · 9.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,665
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$639
• After-tax cash flow: $3,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Homa

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1308
• US rank: #22643

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 62,456
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,456
• Household income: $52,393
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 62% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 87%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 230.3323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-18 Listed $110,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-01-22 Price Changed $115,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $120,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $125,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-08-27 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-05-29 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-04-29 Listed $135,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2011-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,665 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.